CA-Survey USA: Trump -17 to -26

[GeorgiaModerate]

(What's up with the recent California GE polls?  Can't they find more interesting states to poll?)

California: Survey USA, Sep. 13-15, 1785 RV

Biden 57, Trump 31
Sanders 57, Trump 33
Warren 53, Trump 35
Harris 53, Trump 35
O'Rourke 51, Trump 34

Biden 56, Haley 21
Sanders 56, Haley 24
Warren 49, Haley 25
Harris 51, Haley 24
O'Rourke 44, Haley 25

Biden 58, Pence 27
Sanders 57, Pence 31
Warren 50, Pence 33
Harris 51, Pence 34
O'Rourke 47, Pence 34

[ProudModerate2]

[DrScholl]

The blue avatars will call this poll fake. Trump is supposed to win California because the economy is good.

[538Electoral]

Trump wins if CA is only decided by 17 points. End of story. Even a 26 point victory in CA very likely results in a Trump win.

[MT Treasurer]

It won’t be this close, CA polling always underestimates Democrats. He’ll lose by even more than last time.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nah, the CA result will be something like 65/31.

[NOVA Green]

So Trump is running 31-35% in Cali according to SUSA, so depending upon how the dice roll in Cali goes these numbers might bop up a few points, but it is hard to fathom that Trump will but 40% in Cali, even in a best case Trump gig.

[Skill and Chance]

If this is accurate, it's a clear Trump EC win, but we have a lot of reasons now to believe CA polling favors R's.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is this a poll of Orange County? Because that would be a more believable result than this for the whole state

[President Johnson]

Remember the Newsom +5 poll?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Why are they polling one-on-ones against Nikki Haley and not Mitt Romney as well?

[Skill and Chance]

It won’t be this close, CA polling always underestimates Democrats. He’ll lose by even more than last time.

While I believe CA polling underestimates Dems, I'm no longer sure that CA will move left of 2016 in 2020.  In Newsom vs. Cox 2018, Cox basically got all of the 2016 3rd party vote even as Newsom improved in absolute terms, so the Dem margin closed.  And this happened with Cox > Clinton in L.A. county and most of the Bay Area, and at the same time other SW states moved hard left vs. 2016.

I could see a scenario with the Dem improving from 61.5% to 62-63%, but Trump also improves from 31.5% to 34-36% as the 3rd party vote drops.

This is also why I think it's entirely plausible Trump picks up MN while the Dem gets PA back.

[SN2903]

Nice #s for Trump. This election is shaping up to be a better win in the EC for Trump than 2016.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Trump wins if CA is only decided by 17 points. End of story. Even a 26 point victory in CA very likely results in a Trump win.

They underestimate Democrats in safe blue states, just like they do with Republicans in safe R states or do you actually all believe Montana, maybe Texas, the Dakota's, and Kentucky are going to be that close

[John Dule]

I wonder if the systematic underestimating of Democrats in California polls implies in any way that there is a sizable population of people illegally registered to vote in the state who vote majority Dem and aren't accounted for in traditional polling methods.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I wonder if the systematic underestimating of Democrats in California polls implies in any way that there is a sizable population of people illegally registered to vote in the state who vote majority Dem and aren't accounted for in traditional polling methods.

Please tell me this is anti-Trumpist satire. Please.

[John Dule]

I wonder if the systematic underestimating of Democrats in California polls implies in any way that there is a sizable population of people illegally registered to vote in the state who vote majority Dem and aren't accounted for in traditional polling methods.

Please tell me this is anti-Trumpist satire. Please.

Mostly kidding. I couldn't resist. Though I would like to know how many people in this state are registered just with their driver's licenses (which they can get regardless of citizenship status).