Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory

[Lumine]

The President of the Chamber of Deputies and several government ministers have resigned, and the head of the national police has also called for Morales to go.

Rumors indicate Morales may have left the capital in the Presidential plane, destination unknown (likely to be one of his electoral bastions).

[Lumine]

Morales has resigned! He's at a live press conference now.

[Lumine]

Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

Oddly enough, General Kaliman - head of the Armed Forces - was seen as a staunch Morales loyalist, which is why his decisions not to intervene at first (against the police revolt) and later to force Morales's resignation was stunning.

I read an article which suggested that although Morales had loyalists leading both institutions he had A. offended the army through measures such as political indoctrination, B. offended most of the police by not taking their side over an internal dispute with their leadership, and C. didn't count on the military not wanting to be responsible of a bloodbath if they were used to crush the protests (when the military did attempt this in a separate instance a few years ago - before Evo -, the military leadership was tried and sent to jail in the aftermath).

That sounded somewhat reasonable, though the explanation may be found elsewhere.

Note: The article I mentioned is the one that was cited before my post.

[Lumine]

Not a very impressive line-up, that's for sure. MAS or Camacho winning would probably just start new problems of its own or make current ones worse (and/or validate their respective morally questionable actions and/or statements), and the less said about Chi Hyung Chung the better (gods, I wish Evangelical pastors never ran for President in Latin America).

So yeah, Mesa seems like the least depressing option. Which is depressing on its own, I might say.

[Lumine]

Pumari won't be Camacho's VP (allegedly due to some policy differences and because Pumari wanted to lead the ticket), so it appears likely that both of them will run for President instead. Camacho has picked up the endorsement of several minor parties, MAS is yet to pick a candidate, but they've chosen Morales to be their "campaign chief".

Also, the first poll came up, though the results don't seem very reliable:

Camacho: 16%
Pumari: 16%
Rodriguez (MAS): 16%
Mesa: 14%
Chi Hyung Chung: 10%

[Lumine]

The split of the opposition vote continues with the entry of former President Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002, Hugo Banzer's VP, lost the election to Evo) and Felix Patzi (was Morales's Education Minister in 2006-2007, went from MAS to the opposition), despite the current government's efforts to forge a united front against MAS.

Morales has made the news from Argentina with the leaking of a tape, in which Morales discusses the need to form "popular armed militias" (quoting Venezuela and Maduro as a direct example). Unsurprisingly, this has sparked quite a bit of controversy.

[Lumine]

And, in (yet) another plot twist, President Añez announces she's running for a full term. The additional split of the opposition vote aside - are they actively trying to lose? - Añez appears to have started with her bid with several relevant former Mesa supporters behind her, so it appears Mesa will be the biggest loser from this.

Current field:
(Used the colors Bolivian parties currently use)

Luis Arce / David Choquehuanca (MAS)
Jeanine Añez / TBD (MDS)
Carlos Mesa / Gustavo Pedraza (CC)
Luis Fernando Camacho / Marcos Pumarí (Backed by PDC, ADN, UCS)
Chi Hyun Chung / TBD (Independent, former PDC)
Jorge Quiroga / TBD (MNR)
Félix Patzi / TBD (MTS)

[Lumine]

There's been rumors today that Añez is preparing to drop out of the race to give Mesa a better chance against Arce and MAS. It's been alleged the decision was taken, but nothing confirmed yet (wouldn't be really surprised if it didn't turn out to be true).

[Lumine]

It's been confirmed, Añez is dropping out.

[Lumine]

And another one bites the dust, former President Jorge Quiroga has also withdrawn, citing the need to consolidate the anti-MAS vote behind Mesa. It's only a week until the first round.