Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:42:10 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory  (Read 30235 times)
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« on: March 22, 2020, 01:29:55 PM »

Do you think Jeanine Añez and those supporting her will take advantage of the coronavirus crisis to enforce an authoritarian way out?

?
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2020, 05:22:28 AM »

Do you think Jeanine Añez and those supporting her will take advantage of the coronavirus crisis to enforce an authoritarian way out?

Most presidents in the region (with the notable and surprising exception of Bolsonaro's total negligence) is getting more authoritarian by the day

A friend from Argentina told me last night the government was thinking about implementining ''state of emergency as prophylaxis'', ehich is not very different from the ''state of alarm'' we have in Spain but anyway it's something we wouldn't have accepted naturally weeks before. But Alberto Fernández and Pedro Sánchez have the legitimacy to implement emergency measures, which is not the case of Jeanine Añez.

The implications of a state of rmergency enforced by a president with problems of legitimacy and the army are worrisome, to say the least. Hopefully the position of Lady Coup is not very consolidated

(Btw my friend told me governors are sidelining Bolsonaro)
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2020, 09:47:39 AM »

I've read the military is pressing the MAS controlled Senate to approve some promotions (otherwise those men in arms will promote themselves) , Jeanine Añez is surrounded by corruption scandals and even Carlos Mesa says that she's bringing the country to collapse. The situation of Bolivia under this illegitimate president is deeply disturbing, to say the least
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2020, 01:23:49 PM »

Merge please

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=340100.0
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2020, 01:06:19 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2020, 01:09:54 PM by Velasco »

There is a fresh poll with some 16,000 respondents, conducted by university organizations and some radio stations. It's apparently independent and possibly as reliable as you can get

Raw vote percentage (candidates over 1%)

Luis Arce (MAS) 29 2%

Carlos Mesa (CC) 19%

Luis Fernando Camacho (Creemos) 10.4%

Jeanine Añez 7.7%

Chi Hyun Chung (FPV) 3.2%

Jorge Quiroga (Libres 21) 2%

7.1 % will cast blank ballots; 10.6% opted for null votes; 9.8% don't know or don't answer

The estimation of valid votes is the following:

Arce 40.3%, Mesa 26.2%, Camacho 14 4%, Añez 10 6%, Chi Hyun Chung 4.4%, Quiroga 2.8%

Luis Arce and Carlos Mesa would qualify for a second round




https://www.la-razon.com/nacional/2020/09/16/encuesta-a-16-000-personas-en-el-pais-ratifica-a-luis-arce-como-posible-ganador-de-los-comicios/

Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2020, 05:49:16 PM »


The estimation of valid votes is the following:

Arce 40.3%, Mesa 26.2%, Camacho 14 4%, Añez 10 6%, Chi Hyun Chung 4.4%, Quiroga 2.8%

Luis Arce and Carlos Mesa would qualify for a second round




There wouldn't be a second round on those numbers since Arce is above 40% and more than 10 points ahead of Mesa.

Right, I forgot that when posting. Thank you for the correction


I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.

Your faith is worthy of a better cause, but hope is the last to die

Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2020, 08:11:12 PM »

It's been confirmed, Añez is dropping out.

I have just heard that in the news. Añez has also declared the state of emergency to tackle the Chaco wildfires. Evo Morales refused to do so during the terrible wildfires past year; his management of the crisis was possibly a contributing factor to his fall. The state of emergency allows international aid
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2020, 03:07:25 AM »

Apparently Luis Arce is set to win by a landslide and I think it's better this way, because a tight result would have raised suspicions of fraud. Evo Morales and Luis Arce are claiming victory. Carlos Mesa has not conceded yet, but Jeanine Añez congratulated the winners. Hopefully this means there's going to be a peaceful transition.

This election might represent a change of cycle in Latin America. I know that Macri lost a year ago, but Argentina is a case apart
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2020, 07:17:47 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2020, 07:21:36 AM by Velasco »

It’s not only Argentina and Bolivia going Left after a brief period of right wing government. Ecuador has elections next year and the candidate supported by Correa apparently is favored to win; Chile appears to be in a pre-revolutionary state after the protests last year and they’re at it again and burning churches this time, not to mention the constitution referendum and elections where the communist candidate is doing well are stuff yet to come; even Colombia which is the most strongly right wing country of South America appears to very slowly become more Left-friendly...

The trend has already been slowly shifting back and the massive unrest and protests during 2019 in multiple countries kicked the ball. Which ironically, was during the same time the Bolivia 2019 election thing was going on but I saw that as a late manifest of the right wing surge that had already dominated everywhere else in the continent with the exception of Bolivia lol (Venezuela is a special case).

The peronist movement in Argentina is cross-ideological, while the MAS in Bolivia is leftwing and indigenista. In the case of Argentina, more than a "turn to the left" it happened that peronists came back. Granted, Macri is to the right of Fernandez. But the new president strikes as a pragmatist, not as a leftwing populist in the fashion of CfdK. There were two key factors in the outcome of the Argentinian elections: the crumbling economy and the unity of the peronist movement, with the right-leaning caudillos rallying behind a consensus candidate alongside the Cristina supporters. That's why I said Argentina is a special case.

But yeah, with all the exceptions and national particularities it seems that the conservative trend is reversing. In the case of Bolivia, I'd say the 2019 election was basically a tie between Morales and the opposition. The MAS popularity was eroding because of its long stay in power, some corruption scandals or the Chaco fires, but it was still a robust movement that controlled the legislative chambers. This election proves that the MAS represents a majority of Bolivians. I just hope that Evo Morales steps aside and backs Luis Arce, in order that the latter governs successfully.

Apparently the uribista movement is not in good shape in Colombia. I'd say that the deepest black holes right now are in Venezuela and Brazil. The outcome of the US elections will have a great mpact in the region, obviously
 

Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2020, 09:27:59 AM »

This is a victory for muh socialism (CONDOLENCES, LANDLORDS), muh Pachamama (CONDOLENCES, TRADCATS), and "laying off that whiskey and letting that cocaine be" (CONGRATS, JOHNNY CASH). Great honer!

I'll have to play 'Cocaine Blues' in memory of the man in black
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 06:11:46 AM »

Wow, that jacket is amazing

President elect of the Rainbow Nation, that is to say the Plurinational State of Bolivia
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 05:39:52 PM »

Camacho appears to be the leader of a rebel province. His base of support is heavily concentrated in the Santa Cruz department. Results:

Camacho 45 14%
Arce 36.14%
Mesa 17 33%

The CREEMOS candidate got 704k votes in his home base of Santa Cruz and 848k overall

These results reveal the markedly regionalist character of his peculiar movement
Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2020, 01:20:14 AM »

Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries. Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Amazing stuff. I love this quote referring to the invasion of the barbarians

Quote
  Halfway through our journey, we came to the village of San Julián, which sprang up from nothing 30 years ago. Its 48,000 inhabitants are mostly indigenous Bolivian peasants who came from the interior. The brothers want autonomy for their department. They said ‘this jungle’ was an example of the ‘colla invasion’ of which the people of Santa Cruz are ‘victims’. ‘These savages throw stones at us when we drive through the village ... We need to separate ourselves from these crazy people.’

I saw women with their hair in plaits, wearing the traditional wide skirts of the Altiplano. Tulio said, ‘They shouldn’t be here. They’re not adapted to their surroundings. Animals shed their winter coats in summer ... These people are hot and sweaty, and they stink.’ (...)

It's easy to get an idea of the racist mindset of the Santa Cruz mestizo elites and the ongoing demographic conflict. You can see in the map the rural areas of Santa Cruz, where the collas from the highlands have settled, vote for the MAS

Logged
Velasco
andi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,684
Western Sahara


WWW
« Reply #13 on: October 25, 2020, 07:37:12 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2020, 07:41:41 AM by Velasco »


More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

That's true. Latin American elites suck: take a look in Mexico, Brazil or Argentina. On the other hand, overt racism, classism and sexism are increasingly widespread. There are more fans of Bolsonaro in my country than I would like to admit
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.037 seconds with 12 queries.