Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

With Morales’s camp claiming late votes from his rural base will put him over the 10%-gap threshold, the count has stalled at 83% (although I’ve also seen figures saying 86% or even 89%), with the percentages essentially unchanged (maybe a bit more for Ortiz and a bit less for Chi). The opposition is already crying foul and declaring victory by having forced a runoff. No word on when it’ll officially resume.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The counts I’m seeing now have Morales at 46% and Mesa at 36% (Morales having juuuuust over a 10% lead), with 95% of the vote in. Seems fishy but not outside the realm of possibility.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Protests and repression all over the country. Mesa refuses to recognize Morales’s proclamation of victory in the first round.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I recall back in the 2016 Referendum the the later part of the count got more Evo friendly so it is not a surprise that the Evo lead gets larger toward the end of the count.

As he said, a lot of the 17% of remaining votes were from rural areas, which are strongly pro-Evo.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Results as of now are showing Morales up by 9.4% with 96% of the vote counted. The government has invited the OAS to supervise the vote, and Secretary General Luis Almagro has accepted.

https://computo.oep.org.bo/

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The OAS and EU are now asking that a second round be held; Evo’s still saying he won. I’m seeing different numbers in different places, some showing Evo winning outright and others not.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'm glad we avoided the pro-Morales coup, but this is looking more and more like an anti-Morales coup...

I mean, it’s not as if Adriana Salvatierra was forced to resign. She could be acting president right now if she wanted to.

Yeah, and then accidentally die from the crossfires of the police.

This is a blatant and violent power grab by the former rulers of Bolivia, sadly there exists no militias to restore democracy in Bolivia at the moment.

Shame how Evo’s ego was too big to let literally anyone else in his party be President after 21F. It’s entirely his fault that his accomplishments are in danger now.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why didn't Morales appoint officers loyal to him to the top jobs in the military and police? Are there no leftists in the security services?

According to El País, he did. Williams Kaliman is close to him. https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573426533_008486.html

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Seems to be a common point on leftist twitter that the US is backing the anti-Evo factions to force him out of power. Is there any truth to this? As of now I'm treating it with more than a little skepticism until proven

They're going off of past history. But so far, there is nothing to pinpoint US involvement in any of this.

If anything, there seems to be a popular contagion effect going on in Latin America right now: Brazil, Chile, now Bolivia.

Ecuador, Haiti, Peru.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Pretty much out of the cards now, but Morales even win a new election?

Of course not. They made it clear that they aren't going to allow an indigenous President ever again.

“They” weren’t able to stop him the first three times, so clearly “they” can’t be too influential. The only thing that’s changed here is the referendum and everything that came after that.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Áñez officially confirmed as acting president (by the constitutional court), new elections must be within 90 days.

Is the constitutional court a relatively impartial institution in Bolivia or is it a de facto third chamber of Congress like the SCOTUS?

This is the same court that allowed Evo to run in the first place by overturning the 21F referendum, which brought (naturally) many accusations of politicization from the opposition. This feels to me like something of a John Roberts type situation, trying to avoid the appearance of just being another branch of masismo, but I think someone else could answer that better than I could.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Lmao Camacho and Pumari are back together again. Latest poll had Rodríguez at 23%, Mesa at 21%, Camacho at 13%, and Pumari at 10%; MAS percentage dropped significantly when substituting David Choquehuanca, the apparent other most popular potential MAS candidate, for Rodriguez (down to about 10%) but that’s probably more due to name recognition than anything else.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

And, in (yet) another plot twist, President Añez announces she's running for a full term. The additional split of the opposition vote aside - are they actively trying to lose? - Añez appears to have started with her bid with several relevant former Mesa supporters behind her, so it appears Mesa will be the biggest loser from this.

Current field:
(Used the colors Bolivian parties currently use)

Luis Arce / David Choquehuanca (MAS)
Jeanine Añez / TBD (MDS)
Carlos Mesa / Gustavo Pedraza (CC)
Luis Fernando Camacho / Marcos Pumarí (Backed by PDC, ADN, UCS)
Chi Hyun Chung / TBD (Independent, former PDC)
Jorge Quiroga / TBD (MNR)
Félix Patzi / TBD (MTS)

Mesa is already going on the offensive against Áñez and Morales is loving it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Thank you for your input.

(though you maybe meant not win, but "win"?)

It might be rigged for Luis Arce.

Áñez is going to rig it for MAS?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

What with these exit polls, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of the official results. They're still showing CC leading by over 15 points.

They only have 5% of the vote counted.

Does Bolivia require a runoff if no one gets over 50% or is it first past the post?

It requires a runoff unless someone gets over 50% OR over 40% with a 10% margin of victory, which was the key point of debate in 2019 (whether Morales got slightly over or slightly under).

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Great! Now there needs to be a purge. Hopefully MAS will realize that establishing lasting socialism on a large scale without doing anything "authoritarian" is impossible.

Yes, Evo went from 61% to 47% in the past two elections because he wasn’t authoritarian enough. If he’d been more repressive he could have gone even higher.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Don’t call it a comeback.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

66.4% reporting, Arce at 51.31%. Given what's likely out there among that remaining third...wouldn't be surprised to see Arce hit 55%.

At this point I’m mainly rooting for him to beat Evo’s 53% from 2005.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

76.6% reporting and Arce is now at 52.93%; Mesa about to drop below 30%.

He just did, he’s at 29.98% now.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Do the Mennonites vote? If yes who did they vote for?

Chi Hyun Chung is an ethnic Korean and Presbyterian clergyman who is running on the right-wing Christian Democratic ticket. If the Mennonites vote, Chi seems like their closest match.

Not just ethnically Korean, he’s an immigrant. (Not that that matters, of course.)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Apparently the new environment minister is some sh**tty agro dude. Big oops but not super shocking from MAS tbh.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

2021 departmental and local elections are coming up. MAS is seeking to retain and expand its governorships but is seeing division between Evo (back in Bolivia and party president) and more “renovation”-themed forces in the party, with the party bases claiming that Evo’s imposing his own candidates in the primaries. Luis Fernando Camacho is running for something but we’re not sure if it’s the mayor of Santa Cruz or the governor. Waldo Abarracín (university president and former ombudsman) is the opposition candidate for mayor of La Paz.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

2021 departmental and local elections are coming up. MAS is seeking to retain and expand its governorships but is seeing division between Evo (back in Bolivia and party president) and more “renovation”-themed forces in the party, with the party bases claiming that Evo’s imposing his own candidates in the primaries. Luis Fernando Camacho is running for something but we’re not sure if it’s the mayor of Santa Cruz or the governor. Waldo Abarracín (university president and former ombudsman) is the opposition candidate for mayor of La Paz.

Oh. Either way, Camacho is a shoo-in, I imagine?

I imagine, yes. As is Albarracín.