Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory

[Red Velvet]

Lol so you’re telling me that after one year of expelling the guy who won last elections because of a system glitch during vote counting now the same thing is happening again? Don’t tell me they didn’t have time to make this as transparent as possible and didn’t know people would pay attention to every minimal detail...

This is giving me Bolivia 2019/US Iowa Democratic Caucus 2020 vibes. Why no exit polls this time and why does it take so long?

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/OVargas52/status/1318040824916152322

Wait, what? Is this official or it’s that false poll that was released earlier and going around? I’m so confused by everything going on here.

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/OVargas52/status/1318040824916152322

Wait, what? Is this official or it’s that false poll that was released earlier and going around? I’m so confused by everything going on here.

I believe these are the official exit polls.

https://twitter.com/BenjaminNorton/status/1318042382777176065

Thanks, you’re right. It was a different poll indeed that I saw but with not too different numbers, which made me confused.

Well, this shows a clear trend. Let’s see if the actual results will match up lol

[Red Velvet]

Apparently Luis Arce is set to win by a landslide and I think it's better this way, because a tight result would have raised suspicions of fraud. Evo Morales and Luis Arce are claiming victory. Carlos Mesa has not conceded yet, but Jeanine Añez congratulated the winners. Hopefully this means there's going to be a peaceful transition.

This election might represent a change of cycle in Latin America. I know that Macri lost a year ago, but Argentina is a case apart

It’s not only Argentina and Bolivia going Left after a brief period of right wing government. Ecuador has elections next year and the candidate supported by Correa apparently is favored to win; Chile appears to be in a pre-revolutionary state after the protests last year and they’re at it again and burning churches this time, not to mention the constitution referendum and elections where the communist candidate is doing well are stuff yet to come; even Colombia which is the most strongly right wing country of South America appears to very slowly become more Left-friendly...

The trend has already been slowly shifting back and the massive unrest and protests during 2019 in multiple countries kicked the ball. Which ironically, was during the same time the Bolivia 2019 election thing was going on but I saw that as a late manifest of the right wing surge that had already dominated everywhere else in the continent with the exception of Bolivia lol (Venezuela is a special case).

[Red Velvet]

The number of "liberals" who supported that coup - wallet inspection in its purest form.

Liberals are right wing. That was always my understanding in my whole life. I’m actually more sympathetic to some conservative figures (who are at least honest about their stances) than lots of Brazilian liberals who l always thought were robots or something.

[Red Velvet]

Camacho had 14%. Similar to AfD in Germany and smaller than Le Pen in France.

You're clearly a smart guy, judging by what you write, but it would be good for you if you looked at different countries through different lenses, if you know what I mean. Bolivia and Germany or France have, frankly, nothing in common (besides the fact that they hold elections, and even that comes with an asterisk). Too much comparative politics is hazardous for your health

All of them have people, which may have some differences in specific things but are more similar in essence than not because it’s related to human instinct.

And judging by other examples, a passionate base of between 10%-20% for populist right seems about right. Too much, but controlled. When it breaks that bubble it’s when things get more dangerous.

[Red Velvet]

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

It’s no casual thing that class divide is the main defining political factor in most places in the region. It’s also why the left tends to be stronger with the poor, because of inequality sure, but I don’t think there’s other regions in the world where the rich reach such levels of awfulness in such an open way. It’s declared war. In other places the elites still suck but I feel like they try to pretend much better they’re good humanitarians, etc.

Basically, sometimes it’s hard not going full communist around here lol.

[Red Velvet]

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

It’s no casual thing that class divide is the main defining political factor in most places in the region. It’s also why the left tends to be stronger with the poor, because of inequality sure, but I don’t think there’s other regions in the world where the rich reach such levels of awfulness in such an open way. It’s declared war. In other places the elites still suck but I feel like they try to pretend much better they’re good humanitarians, etc.

Basically, sometimes it’s hard not going full communist around here lol.

Is there some correlation between religion and such sentiment? eg, do rich Catholics, Pentecostals, and non-religious differ?

Not really, at least I don’t think so. There are wealthy Catholics, evangelicals and atheists just like there poorer ones. Evangelicals tend to be more conservative on specific social issues but that isn’t related to class, you’ll find these people in all spectrums of status.