Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory (user search)
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Author Topic: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory  (Read 30274 times)
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CrabCake
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« on: October 20, 2019, 04:15:15 PM »
« edited: October 26, 2020, 06:53:18 AM by c r a b c a k e »

Happening today. Evo Morales, in office since 2006, is running for an unprecedented fourth term following the controversial Supreme Tribunal decision to strike down term limits (that were in the constitution).

Candidates

Evo Morales (MAS) -  Born into poverty, Evo Morales cut his political teeth as head of a union for coca growers which fought against War on Drugs attacks on their livelihoods. Ultimately this outlook took him into direct conflict with various Bolivian governments, which he saw as selling out a traditional Andean pastime at the behest of foreign Yankees. He took his union into the field of politics, eventually coming over to take over a largely defunct Falangist (yeah) party, MAS, and beyond his initial focus on legalizing coca to a broader socialist outlook. Luckily for him, the Bolivian business and political elite were dysfunctional, venal and dominated by whites in a very non-white country, and their response to him exploiting the crisis created after the Water and Gas Wars were shambolic: trying to expel him from Congress on dubious grounds, cycling through several hapless Presidents and rather blatantly trying to get the Bush administration to bail them out. In 2005, Morales won with a majority in the first round, a feat which he repeated in 2009 and 2014.

Evo Morales's Presidency, for all its leftist bluster, is very similar to the sort of social democracy we are familiar with elsewhere, avoiding calls to nationalize mines and pushing for pro-growth policies with largely balanced budgets. He took credit (fairly or unfairly, according to your political persuasion) for an extraordinary economic boom: cuts to poverty, inequality, unemployment, the deficit, debt and inflation all bolstered his popularity and allowed him to deflect from all other criticisms. This also led to social reforms: the elimination of illiteracy (by some measures, anyway), a modern constitution, recognition of indigenous peoples and the legalisation of coca. Even the end of the commodities boom hasn't been as disastrous as it was in Ecuador and Venezuela, owing to the aforementioned lack of deficits during the boom years. The ultimate legacy of MAS appears to be the creation of a truly indigenous middle-class, which isn't something to sniff at.

Not all find Morales so great. The country's lowland eastern provinces especially have been the centre of opposition to him, led by the wealthy and whiter province of Santa Cruz. The eastern lowlands have even made threats about secession, afraid of losing power to the lowlanders. The recent moves to quash terms limits in violation of his own constitution and a referendum have certainly stung. The country's strong focus on supporting extractive industries including within national parks has also caused a green backlash, especially after a disastrous fire this year that burnt vast swathes of the Chiquitano dry forest blamed on indiginous highlanders moving into the lowlanders turf and overly exploiting the land. And a recent rise in the deficit may portend future economic storms: should the President have done more to diversify the rather backward and non-industrial Bolivian economy? Even in the 2015 local elections, MAS saw some punishment, especially in middle-class urban indigenous areas that had once been the primary beneficiary of the President's pro-indigenous reforms (El Alto) - perhaps the ascetic President for the poor will become a victim of his own success?

Carlos Mesa (FRI or "Revolutionary Left Front") - One of the Presidents in the old Gas Wars, Mesa won some credit for breaking from the previous harsh treatment of protesters unleashed by his predecessor Goni upon the latter's resignation. Mild-mannered and intellectual, Mesa presents himself as a compromise figure who can unite the people who have always hated Morales with students, liberals and the new urban middle-class irritated by the term limits shenanigans without representing a drastic turn to the economic right (although Mesa pushes for increased foreign investment). He also is trying to court the green movement, opposing extractive industries in national parks. In case you are curious about Mesa's new party's name, it may not surprise you to know that the FRI, after previously being a front for a Maoist rebellion back in the day, seems (from my understanding) to have placed itself up to sale after the death of its longtime leader in 2017.

Oscar Ortiz "Bolivia Says No" - in third place is the Senator from right-wing stronghold Santa Cruz. Mr Ortitz represents a political tendency that is very much opposed to the, err, racial developments that have occurred under Morales. His candidacy has very much annoyed the Bolivian opposition, who wanted a united front, but his party wanted to cement its control over Santa Cruz province. Also very much an anti-Green, who seeks to export the "Santa Cruz model" (i.e. drill baby drill/more soy beans) to the entire country.

Chi Hyung Chung Christina Democrats - theocratic candidate who think women's rights and homosexuality are ruining Bolivia. Has seen the most success of the random candidates in polling.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2019, 04:34:38 PM »

If Evo does not get to 50% of the vote I assume Congress decides ?

nah run-off in December. He also avoids the run-off if he is over 40% and ten points clear of his rival, which is another reason why Otiz's campaign caused so much ire. (heck, his own VP candidate defected mid campaign and endorsed Mesa)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2019, 04:47:52 PM »

Chamber of Deputies

MAS - 64 (-24)
CC (FRI led list) - 54 (+54)
Christian Dems - 9 (-1)
MDS (Ortiz list) - 3

MAS narrowly loses majority

Senate

MAS - 19 (-6)
CC - 16 (+16)
MDS - 1
Christians - 0 (-2)
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