Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
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buritobr
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« Reply #250 on: October 23, 2020, 03:15:44 PM »

Final results:
Arce (MAS) 55%, 73 seats in the chamber, 21 seats in the senate
Mesa (CC) 29%, 41 seats in the chamber, 11 seats in the senate
Camacho (Creemos) 14%, 16 seats in the chamber, 4 seats in the senate

Camacho had 14%. Similar to AfD in Germany and smaller than Le Pen in France.


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Estrella
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« Reply #251 on: October 23, 2020, 05:02:20 PM »

Camacho had 14%. Similar to AfD in Germany and smaller than Le Pen in France.

You're clearly a smart guy, judging by what you write, but it would be good for you if you looked at different countries through different lenses, if you know what I mean. Bolivia and Germany or France have, frankly, nothing in common (besides the fact that they hold elections, and even that comes with an asterisk). Too much comparative politics is hazardous for your health Wink
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Velasco
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« Reply #252 on: October 23, 2020, 05:39:52 PM »

Camacho appears to be the leader of a rebel province. His base of support is heavily concentrated in the Santa Cruz department. Results:

Camacho 45 14%
Arce 36.14%
Mesa 17 33%

The CREEMOS candidate got 704k votes in his home base of Santa Cruz and 848k overall

These results reveal the markedly regionalist character of his peculiar movement
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Estrella
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« Reply #253 on: October 23, 2020, 05:57:06 PM »

Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries. Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Quote
She told me, ‘Santa Cruz is Bolivia’s most modern city. You’ve seen all the condos [the many gated developments]. It’s only natural. In Santa Cruz, we know how to invest our money, we know how to make it grow. Not like the Indians, who bury it in the ground as an offering to their “Pachamama”.’ Her dream was to see President Evo Morales, whom she called ‘that illiterate Indian’, removed.

[snark] Unsurprisingly for people who want to create a Volkstaat, they also have their own knockoff Weerstandsbeweging (presumably a similar clown car of morons like the original thing, for now):

Quote
She described an intense few months spent with the committee’s youth section, the Santa Cruz Youth Union (UJC), who call her Tia (auntie) and are ‘prepared to do anything to ensure the triumph of democracy’; members are often sent to prison for acts of violence.

This is not from a Dickens book:

Quote
I always tried to make sure that my children didn’t mix with poor people, so that they wouldn’t grow up to be lazy. I wanted them to be surrounded by money and acquire a taste for it. [...] People from the west, like him [Morales], are born hating us. That’s why they held us back. They’ve screwed up our businesses with social rights and welfare and so on.

lolbertarianism.jpg

Quote
To them, communism means taxes. Pablo Mendieta Ossio of the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for Bolivian Economic Studies, told me that under Morales’s presidency, the people of Santa Cruz were victims of ‘extortion’: ‘The problem wasn’t so much the tax rates — our taxes are very low — as the fact that audits have become more frequent in recent years,which increases the chances of the tax authorities making mistakes, and therefore the likelihood of fines.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #254 on: October 23, 2020, 06:36:23 PM »

Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
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PSOL
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« Reply #255 on: October 23, 2020, 07:08:41 PM »

Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
If I had to guess, they’re trying to ensure that MAS won’t have a senate supermajority
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #256 on: October 23, 2020, 07:28:44 PM »

Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
If I had to guess, they’re trying to ensure that MAS won’t have a senate supermajority

I doubt it. It's 99.29% now and if you compare with the 99.96% count MAS has gained 0.1%, CC has gained 0.09%, Creemos has lost 0.19% and Chung's National Action Party of Bolivia has gained 0.01%.
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Hash
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« Reply #257 on: October 23, 2020, 08:12:32 PM »

Results by municipality:

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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #258 on: October 23, 2020, 08:39:55 PM »

Are there any demographic differences between Camacho and Mesa supporters?
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Nathan
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« Reply #259 on: October 23, 2020, 09:49:18 PM »

Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries. Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Quote
She told me, ‘Santa Cruz is Bolivia’s most modern city. You’ve seen all the condos [the many gated developments]. It’s only natural. In Santa Cruz, we know how to invest our money, we know how to make it grow. Not like the Indians, who bury it in the ground as an offering to their “Pachamama”.’ Her dream was to see President Evo Morales, whom she called ‘that illiterate Indian’, removed.

[snark] Unsurprisingly for people who want to create a Volkstaat, they also have their own knockoff Weerstandsbeweging (presumably a similar clown car of morons like the original thing, for now):

Quote
She described an intense few months spent with the committee’s youth section, the Santa Cruz Youth Union (UJC), who call her Tia (auntie) and are ‘prepared to do anything to ensure the triumph of democracy’; members are often sent to prison for acts of violence.

This is not from a Dickens book:

Quote
I always tried to make sure that my children didn’t mix with poor people, so that they wouldn’t grow up to be lazy. I wanted them to be surrounded by money and acquire a taste for it. [...] People from the west, like him [Morales], are born hating us. That’s why they held us back. They’ve screwed up our businesses with social rights and welfare and so on.

lolbertarianism.jpg

Quote
To them, communism means taxes. Pablo Mendieta Ossio of the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for Bolivian Economic Studies, told me that under Morales’s presidency, the people of Santa Cruz were victims of ‘extortion’: ‘The problem wasn’t so much the tax rates — our taxes are very low — as the fact that audits have become more frequent in recent years,which increases the chances of the tax authorities making mistakes, and therefore the likelihood of fines.

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.
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Crane
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« Reply #260 on: October 23, 2020, 10:55:31 PM »

Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries. Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Quote
She told me, ‘Santa Cruz is Bolivia’s most modern city. You’ve seen all the condos [the many gated developments]. It’s only natural. In Santa Cruz, we know how to invest our money, we know how to make it grow. Not like the Indians, who bury it in the ground as an offering to their “Pachamama”.’ Her dream was to see President Evo Morales, whom she called ‘that illiterate Indian’, removed.

[snark] Unsurprisingly for people who want to create a Volkstaat, they also have their own knockoff Weerstandsbeweging (presumably a similar clown car of morons like the original thing, for now):

Quote
She described an intense few months spent with the committee’s youth section, the Santa Cruz Youth Union (UJC), who call her Tia (auntie) and are ‘prepared to do anything to ensure the triumph of democracy’; members are often sent to prison for acts of violence.

This is not from a Dickens book:

Quote
I always tried to make sure that my children didn’t mix with poor people, so that they wouldn’t grow up to be lazy. I wanted them to be surrounded by money and acquire a taste for it. [...] People from the west, like him [Morales], are born hating us. That’s why they held us back. They’ve screwed up our businesses with social rights and welfare and so on.

lolbertarianism.jpg

Quote
To them, communism means taxes. Pablo Mendieta Ossio of the Santa Cruz Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for Bolivian Economic Studies, told me that under Morales’s presidency, the people of Santa Cruz were victims of ‘extortion’: ‘The problem wasn’t so much the tax rates — our taxes are very low — as the fact that audits have become more frequent in recent years,which increases the chances of the tax authorities making mistakes, and therefore the likelihood of fines.

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

The dude wearing a US Army hat next to Camacho is the icing on that s**t cake.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #261 on: October 23, 2020, 10:58:57 PM »

Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
If I had to guess, they’re trying to ensure that MAS won’t have a senate supermajority

I doubt it. It's 99.29% now and if you compare with the 99.96% count MAS has gained 0.1%, CC has gained 0.09%, Creemos has lost 0.19% and Chung's National Action Party of Bolivia has gained 0.01%.

Continuing to fall, now down under 99%. But yeah, it seems that the precincts affected by this are more right-leaning ones, so it doesn't sound like Arce's lead is at risk (unless the right-wingers are suddenly "finding" tons of new ballots, but that seems unlikely at this point).

Still would love to hear from someone familiar with the counting process if they have an idea what's going on.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #262 on: October 23, 2020, 11:48:57 PM »

Camacho had 14%. Similar to AfD in Germany and smaller than Le Pen in France.

You're clearly a smart guy, judging by what you write, but it would be good for you if you looked at different countries through different lenses, if you know what I mean. Bolivia and Germany or France have, frankly, nothing in common (besides the fact that they hold elections, and even that comes with an asterisk). Too much comparative politics is hazardous for your health Wink

All of them have people, which may have some differences in specific things but are more similar in essence than not because it’s related to human instinct.

And judging by other examples, a passionate base of between 10%-20% for populist right seems about right. Too much, but controlled. When it breaks that bubble it’s when things get more dangerous.
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Velasco
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« Reply #263 on: October 24, 2020, 01:20:14 AM »

Indeed, Creemos is a regionalist (and very right-wing) party. Santa Cruz and its capital, Santa Cruz de la Sierra, is the center of Bolivia's "white" (more like "mestizo but with less indigenous blood", but let's not get into that) culture and unsurprisingly a long-time right-wing stronghold. There is a small but growing movement to give this part of the country more autonomy or, on the fringes, even independence. You can read more about it here: Bolivia: a tale of two countries. Its members are... curious creatures - the most hilariously every-negative-stereotype-about-racist-right-wing-whites moments from that article:

Amazing stuff. I love this quote referring to the invasion of the barbarians

Quote
  Halfway through our journey, we came to the village of San Julián, which sprang up from nothing 30 years ago. Its 48,000 inhabitants are mostly indigenous Bolivian peasants who came from the interior. The brothers want autonomy for their department. They said ‘this jungle’ was an example of the ‘colla invasion’ of which the people of Santa Cruz are ‘victims’. ‘These savages throw stones at us when we drive through the village ... We need to separate ourselves from these crazy people.’

I saw women with their hair in plaits, wearing the traditional wide skirts of the Altiplano. Tulio said, ‘They shouldn’t be here. They’re not adapted to their surroundings. Animals shed their winter coats in summer ... These people are hot and sweaty, and they stink.’ (...)

It's easy to get an idea of the racist mindset of the Santa Cruz mestizo elites and the ongoing demographic conflict. You can see in the map the rural areas of Santa Cruz, where the collas from the highlands have settled, vote for the MAS

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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #264 on: October 24, 2020, 02:02:47 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2020, 02:13:38 AM by Lord Halifax »

Uhhhh. The % of precincts counted had reached 99.96% last night, but this morning it's been going down (99.86 a few hours ago, 99.79 now). Any clue what's going on with that?

Now 99.27%. Anyone know what's going on?
If I had to guess, they’re trying to ensure that MAS won’t have a senate supermajority

I doubt it. It's 99.29% now and if you compare with the 99.96% count MAS has gained 0.1%, CC has gained 0.09%, Creemos has lost 0.19% and Chung's National Action Party of Bolivia has gained 0.01%.

Continuing to fall, now down under 99%. But yeah, it seems that the precincts affected by this are more right-leaning ones, so it doesn't sound like Arce's lead is at risk (unless the right-wingers are suddenly "finding" tons of new ballots, but that seems unlikely at this point).

Still would love to hear from someone familiar with the counting process if they have an idea what's going on.

Looks like they're just correcting minor errors in some actas. They're back at 99.82% and the difference to the original 99.96% count is now MAS +0.03%, CC +0.02%, Creemos -0.05% and PAN +0.01%. The 88.42% turnout rate hasn't been adjusted so the total number of votes should be nearly identical.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #265 on: October 24, 2020, 04:19:36 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2020, 04:23:11 AM by Cosmopolitanism Will Win »

Yep! We finally have the complete, 100% count.

Arce 55.10% (+8.02)
Mesa 28.83% (-7.68)
Camacho 14.00% (new)
Hyun Chung 1.55% (-7.23)

What a beautiful triumph. And it has important policy implications: based on the 2019 results, MAS would have lost its majority in the lower house, but with this numbers they should hold a comfortable majority. So in a way, the coup has arguably strengthened MAS' hand (in addition to fostering a change in leadership which is probably healthy in and of itself for the party). Of course, the price to pay was one year of thuggish crackdowns, corruption and incompetence that have brought the country to its knees. So I'm definitely not saying it was worth it. Still, if there's one person who can fix this mess, it's probably the economy minister who oversaw the boom of the past decade and a half.

Checkmate, golpistas. The Bolivian working-class has reclaimed its freedom.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #266 on: October 24, 2020, 08:48:38 AM »

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #267 on: October 24, 2020, 12:31:05 PM »

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg

Lega's the obvious example in Europe, yeah, but I also tend to think "woke" rich-region separatisms like Catalonia's are, to use the parlance of our times, kinda sus for this reason. To say nothing of the Calexit/Jesusland-map fantasists here in the US.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #268 on: October 24, 2020, 02:57:33 PM »

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg

Lega's the obvious example in Europe, yeah, but I also tend to think "woke" rich-region separatisms like Catalonia's are, to use the parlance of our times, kinda sus for this reason. To say nothing of the Calexit/Jesusland-map fantasists here in the US.

Well yeah, I agree.

By the way, we've already talked about this a lot, but I can't resist reposting my new favourite quote, which the cato-camachistas who are Saving Christianity From Those Idolatrous Indians™ surely love.

Quote from: Fratelli Tutti §125
What applies to nations is true also for different regions within each country, since there too great inequalities often exist. At times, the inability to recognize equal human dignity leads the more developed regions in some countries to think that they can jettison the “dead weight” of poorer regions and so increase their level of consumption.

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.
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Nathan
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« Reply #269 on: October 24, 2020, 10:24:28 PM »

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

When Antonio linked me to Estrella's post that I was originally responding to yesterday my first reaction was "So it's suburban Veneto but with the racial politics of Alabama? Sounds like a delightful place."
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #270 on: October 25, 2020, 02:17:38 AM »


More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

It’s no casual thing that class divide is the main defining political factor in most places in the region. It’s also why the left tends to be stronger with the poor, because of inequality sure, but I don’t think there’s other regions in the world where the rich reach such levels of awfulness in such an open way. It’s declared war. In other places the elites still suck but I feel like they try to pretend much better they’re good humanitarians, etc.

Basically, sometimes it’s hard not going full communist around here lol.
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afleitch
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« Reply #271 on: October 25, 2020, 06:34:14 AM »

Autonomist or separatist movements in areas wealthier than the country as a whole really just cannot ever be trusted. Tale as old as time.

Lol
You know what I am going to say.

UmbertoBossi.jpg

(Looks at GDP)

NicolaSturgeon.jpg
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Velasco
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« Reply #272 on: October 25, 2020, 07:37:12 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2020, 07:41:41 AM by Velasco »


More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

That's true. Latin American elites suck: take a look in Mexico, Brazil or Argentina. On the other hand, overt racism, classism and sexism are increasingly widespread. There are more fans of Bolsonaro in my country than I would like to admit
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« Reply #273 on: October 25, 2020, 10:02:51 AM »


More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

It’s no casual thing that class divide is the main defining political factor in most places in the region. It’s also why the left tends to be stronger with the poor, because of inequality sure, but I don’t think there’s other regions in the world where the rich reach such levels of awfulness in such an open way. It’s declared war. In other places the elites still suck but I feel like they try to pretend much better they’re good humanitarians, etc.

Basically, sometimes it’s hard not going full communist around here lol.

Is there some correlation between religion and such sentiment? eg, do rich Catholics, Pentecostals, and non-religious differ?
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #274 on: October 25, 2020, 11:11:03 AM »

More seriously: the people in that article are a level of stereotypical posho-classist-asshole-ness which I don't think I had ever seen before.

Not stereotypical at all sadly, they sound like regular Latin-American right-wing elites I know in regards to the “poor and uneducated”, with the only difference there’s the additional contempt for Indigenous elements because it’s Bolivia in this case. It’s not uncommon to see people using their social status to point out why they should have more privileges than others.

It’s no casual thing that class divide is the main defining political factor in most places in the region. It’s also why the left tends to be stronger with the poor, because of inequality sure, but I don’t think there’s other regions in the world where the rich reach such levels of awfulness in such an open way. It’s declared war. In other places the elites still suck but I feel like they try to pretend much better they’re good humanitarians, etc.

Basically, sometimes it’s hard not going full communist around here lol.

Is there some correlation between religion and such sentiment? eg, do rich Catholics, Pentecostals, and non-religious differ?


Not really, at least I don’t think so. There are wealthy Catholics, evangelicals and atheists just like there poorer ones. Evangelicals tend to be more conservative on specific social issues but that isn’t related to class, you’ll find these people in all spectrums of status.
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