Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
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  Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
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Author Topic: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory  (Read 30289 times)
Pyro
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« Reply #175 on: October 18, 2020, 11:10:36 PM »

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Babeuf
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« Reply #176 on: October 18, 2020, 11:14:52 PM »

Morales declared victory for MAS based on their internal counts.

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Red Velvet
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« Reply #177 on: October 18, 2020, 11:23:13 PM »



Wait, what? Is this official or it’s that false poll that was released earlier and going around? I’m so confused by everything going on here.
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Pyro
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« Reply #178 on: October 18, 2020, 11:25:35 PM »



Wait, what? Is this official or it’s that false poll that was released earlier and going around? I’m so confused by everything going on here.

I believe these are the official exit polls.

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Red Velvet
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« Reply #179 on: October 18, 2020, 11:31:13 PM »



Wait, what? Is this official or it’s that false poll that was released earlier and going around? I’m so confused by everything going on here.

I believe these are the official exit polls.



Thanks, you’re right. It was a different poll indeed that I saw but with not too different numbers, which made me confused.

Well, this shows a clear trend. Let’s see if the actual results will match up lol
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GALeftist
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« Reply #180 on: October 18, 2020, 11:41:42 PM »

What with these exit polls, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of the official results. They're still showing CC leading by over 15 points.
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DL
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« Reply #181 on: October 18, 2020, 11:42:26 PM »

Does Bolivia require a runoff if no one gets over 50% or is it first past the post?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #182 on: October 18, 2020, 11:46:48 PM »

What with these exit polls, I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of the official results. They're still showing CC leading by over 15 points.

They only have 5% of the vote counted.

Does Bolivia require a runoff if no one gets over 50% or is it first past the post?

It requires a runoff unless someone gets over 50% OR over 40% with a 10% margin of victory, which was the key point of debate in 2019 (whether Morales got slightly over or slightly under).
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Babeuf
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« Reply #183 on: October 18, 2020, 11:47:31 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 11:54:06 PM by Babeuf »

Wow! Anez herself saying Arce is the likely winner. Have to say, I am shocked they are going to let this happen.

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GALeftist
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« Reply #184 on: October 19, 2020, 12:00:27 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2020, 12:03:36 AM by Abolish class »

Everything is going so much better than expected :')

EDIT: If these polls are accurate this also seems to demonstrate fairly significant underpolling of MAS. Any ideas why/how this could be fixed?
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AltWorlder
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« Reply #185 on: October 19, 2020, 02:35:57 AM »

What was Mesa's actual ceiling?
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Donerail
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« Reply #186 on: October 19, 2020, 02:58:04 AM »

Everything is going so much better than expected :')

EDIT: If these polls are accurate this also seems to demonstrate fairly significant underpolling of MAS. Any ideas why/how this could be fixed?
MAS does better with rural voters (a category that overlaps substantially with indigenous voters). They tend to be undersampled for obvious technological reasons.
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Velasco
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« Reply #187 on: October 19, 2020, 03:07:25 AM »

Apparently Luis Arce is set to win by a landslide and I think it's better this way, because a tight result would have raised suspicions of fraud. Evo Morales and Luis Arce are claiming victory. Carlos Mesa has not conceded yet, but Jeanine Añez congratulated the winners. Hopefully this means there's going to be a peaceful transition.

This election might represent a change of cycle in Latin America. I know that Macri lost a year ago, but Argentina is a case apart
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afleitch
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« Reply #188 on: October 19, 2020, 03:35:10 AM »

Today we learned it was a coup after all and that Bolivians wanted socialism back.

The US doesn't put the same effort into regime change as they used to.
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jaichind
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« Reply #189 on: October 19, 2020, 04:42:30 AM »

Would not the scale of Arce's victory plant the seeds of future conflict?  Morales would now want to come back and become de facto president.  But Arce will read is mandate which would be greater than the 2019 Morales vote as his own personal mandate and push back against Morales. 
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #190 on: October 19, 2020, 04:47:12 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2020, 04:50:36 AM by Red Velvet »

Apparently Luis Arce is set to win by a landslide and I think it's better this way, because a tight result would have raised suspicions of fraud. Evo Morales and Luis Arce are claiming victory. Carlos Mesa has not conceded yet, but Jeanine Añez congratulated the winners. Hopefully this means there's going to be a peaceful transition.

This election might represent a change of cycle in Latin America. I know that Macri lost a year ago, but Argentina is a case apart

It’s not only Argentina and Bolivia going Left after a brief period of right wing government. Ecuador has elections next year and the candidate supported by Correa apparently is favored to win; Chile appears to be in a pre-revolutionary state after the protests last year and they’re at it again and burning churches this time, not to mention the constitution referendum and elections where the communist candidate is doing well are stuff yet to come; even Colombia which is the most strongly right wing country of South America appears to very slowly become more Left-friendly...

The trend has already been slowly shifting back and the massive unrest and protests during 2019 in multiple countries kicked the ball. Which ironically, was during the same time the Bolivia 2019 election thing was going on but I saw that as a late manifest of the right wing surge that had already dominated everywhere else in the continent with the exception of Bolivia lol (Venezuela is a special case).
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #191 on: October 19, 2020, 05:52:49 AM »


Basket case, more like.
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Roblox
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« Reply #192 on: October 19, 2020, 06:36:50 AM »

Honestly surprised they “allowed” MAS to win, but it’s great anyway. This is a fantastic repudiation of an egregious coup.
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Velasco
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« Reply #193 on: October 19, 2020, 07:17:47 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2020, 07:21:36 AM by Velasco »

It’s not only Argentina and Bolivia going Left after a brief period of right wing government. Ecuador has elections next year and the candidate supported by Correa apparently is favored to win; Chile appears to be in a pre-revolutionary state after the protests last year and they’re at it again and burning churches this time, not to mention the constitution referendum and elections where the communist candidate is doing well are stuff yet to come; even Colombia which is the most strongly right wing country of South America appears to very slowly become more Left-friendly...

The trend has already been slowly shifting back and the massive unrest and protests during 2019 in multiple countries kicked the ball. Which ironically, was during the same time the Bolivia 2019 election thing was going on but I saw that as a late manifest of the right wing surge that had already dominated everywhere else in the continent with the exception of Bolivia lol (Venezuela is a special case).

The peronist movement in Argentina is cross-ideological, while the MAS in Bolivia is leftwing and indigenista. In the case of Argentina, more than a "turn to the left" it happened that peronists came back. Granted, Macri is to the right of Fernandez. But the new president strikes as a pragmatist, not as a leftwing populist in the fashion of CfdK. There were two key factors in the outcome of the Argentinian elections: the crumbling economy and the unity of the peronist movement, with the right-leaning caudillos rallying behind a consensus candidate alongside the Cristina supporters. That's why I said Argentina is a special case.

But yeah, with all the exceptions and national particularities it seems that the conservative trend is reversing. In the case of Bolivia, I'd say the 2019 election was basically a tie between Morales and the opposition. The MAS popularity was eroding because of its long stay in power, some corruption scandals or the Chaco fires, but it was still a robust movement that controlled the legislative chambers. This election proves that the MAS represents a majority of Bolivians. I just hope that Evo Morales steps aside and backs Luis Arce, in order that the latter governs successfully.

Apparently the uribista movement is not in good shape in Colombia. I'd say that the deepest black holes right now are in Venezuela and Brazil. The outcome of the US elections will have a great mpact in the region, obviously
 

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jaichind
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« Reply #194 on: October 19, 2020, 07:20:58 AM »

All these Center-Right candidates dropping out to concentrate the anti-MAS vote only to have MAS win a majority proves the old Nixon adage: "if you hear about a Stop X movement, put your money on X"
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PSOL
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« Reply #195 on: October 19, 2020, 08:42:43 AM »

Today we learned it was a coup after all and that Bolivians wanted socialism back.

The US doesn't put the same effort into regime change as they used to.
This is not exactly quite right. Morales, and the majority of his party, are social democrats apart of the same international as the Democratic Party. His tenure, while providing sweeping change, made Bolivia more attractive to FDI from the Cappy Core. Out of all this, the foreign elites and comprador porky still saw it more attractive to coup them. Huh, seems very discouraging to democrats and free talking points for establishing controlled systems like Cuba, don’t it?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #196 on: October 19, 2020, 08:53:19 AM »

This is a victory for muh socialism (CONDOLENCES, LANDLORDS), muh Pachamama (CONDOLENCES, TRADCATS), and "laying off that whiskey and letting that cocaine be" (CONGRATS, JOHNNY CASH). Great honer!
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Velasco
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« Reply #197 on: October 19, 2020, 09:27:59 AM »

This is a victory for muh socialism (CONDOLENCES, LANDLORDS), muh Pachamama (CONDOLENCES, TRADCATS), and "laying off that whiskey and letting that cocaine be" (CONGRATS, JOHNNY CASH). Great honer!

I'll have to play 'Cocaine Blues' in memory of the man in black
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #198 on: October 19, 2020, 10:25:38 AM »

Results still very slow to come in apparently? Won't totally believe it until Arce has "officially" won......
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Babeuf
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« Reply #199 on: October 19, 2020, 10:35:53 AM »

Mesa concedes!



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