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October 26, 2020, 10:31:55 PM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory
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Author Topic: Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory  (Read 14084 times)
Defund the Troops
CraneHusband
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« Reply #150 on: September 17, 2020, 08:07:19 PM »

I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.

Liek dis if u cri evry tiem

Lmao
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Velasco
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« Reply #151 on: September 17, 2020, 08:11:12 PM »

It's been confirmed, Añez is dropping out.

I have just heard that in the news. Añez has also declared the state of emergency to tackle the Chaco wildfires. Evo Morales refused to do so during the terrible wildfires past year; his management of the crisis was possibly a contributing factor to his fall. The state of emergency allows international aid
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #152 on: September 18, 2020, 06:58:29 AM »

I think Añez will do way better than what the polls say and win.

We got it the first three times you posted it.

They won't be posting it any more, though Tongue
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PSOL
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« Reply #153 on: September 29, 2020, 11:35:36 PM »

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Lumine
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« Reply #154 on: October 11, 2020, 04:04:52 PM »

And another one bites the dust, former President Jorge Quiroga has also withdrawn, citing the need to consolidate the anti-MAS vote behind Mesa. It's only a week until the first round.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #155 on: October 11, 2020, 04:59:11 PM »

So the right are a bit worried they might lose?
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PSOL
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« Reply #156 on: October 12, 2020, 11:42:27 PM »

So the right are a bit worried they might lose?


It is quite plausible they won’t have to rig it that bad in order to get ahead in a second round.
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jaichind
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« Reply #157 on: October 17, 2020, 10:05:24 AM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-wHQpnSLe8&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw&index=2&t=737s

I saw "Our brand is Crisis" which was about the 2002 election when it came out in 2005.  Mesa shows up several times in the film.
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PSOL
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« Reply #158 on: October 17, 2020, 04:38:11 PM »

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Skye
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« Reply #159 on: October 17, 2020, 04:46:33 PM »

So the right are a bit worried they might lose?

It is quite plausible they won’t have to rig it that bad in order to get ahead in a second round.

Note that, for some baffling reason, the America Elects account's methodology, IIRC, removes undecideds and reallocates the voting %s.
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jaichind
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« Reply #160 on: October 18, 2020, 05:41:09 AM »

On Saturday night, Bolivia's electoral board announced it would not release preliminary results that were expected on Sunday evening. It is unclear when the first official results will be available.
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kaoras
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« Reply #161 on: October 18, 2020, 07:02:40 AM »

How convinient
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SInNYC
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« Reply #162 on: October 18, 2020, 12:06:21 PM »

And yet the US media was all over accusations that Morales cheated last time, including now-discredited OAS reports.

This time, not a peep. Not even much mention of the election.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #163 on: October 18, 2020, 12:41:19 PM »

The number of "liberals" who supported that coup - wallet inspection in its purest form.
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Estrella
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« Reply #164 on: October 18, 2020, 01:06:03 PM »

How do you say "se cayó el sistema" in Quechua?
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #165 on: October 18, 2020, 04:26:01 PM »

It's going on?
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Defund the Troops
CraneHusband
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« Reply #166 on: October 18, 2020, 06:54:39 PM »

The fix is in. Each member of the Electoral Board has a shiny new Tesla in their garage.
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Gulf Coastal Elite
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« Reply #167 on: October 18, 2020, 07:17:45 PM »

As jaichind mentioned, the rapid count was canceled; it didn't pass reliability tests, so they were concerned about candidates declaring victory based on the results of the rapid count only to not win in the final count. The UN and EU observer missions signed off on the decision to cancel.
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Logical
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« Reply #168 on: October 18, 2020, 07:45:34 PM »

Official results are trickling in
https://computo.oep.org.bo/?fbclid=IwAR0Ouoecvm-kOhiEETej8A300MH2heMo3GCCErFUKGbx8TfKCdAzxpMkOTg
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kaoras
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« Reply #169 on: October 18, 2020, 07:49:20 PM »

Bolivia TV stations are saying that the Electoral Court has prohibited taking photos of the electoral acts (vote tallies at each polling station), which is irregular.
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Estrella
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« Reply #170 on: October 18, 2020, 08:49:39 PM »

Talking about Bolivian TV stations, here's a livestream if you want to watch:


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Estrella
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« Reply #171 on: October 18, 2020, 08:54:21 PM »
« Edited: October 18, 2020, 09:00:07 PM by Estrella »

How do you say "se cayó el sistema" in Quechua?

ayyyyyy lmao



Tbf they're probably just overloaded by demand to see the results, but still.
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Estrella
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« Reply #172 on: October 18, 2020, 09:16:57 PM »

Some overseas results are in and it shows an interesting pattern of where the rich (and white) expats go vs where the poor emigrants go.  For example, from what's counted so far, MAS is getting 83% in Argentina, 71% in Brazil and 50% in Spain, while CC is getting 73% in Germany and 41% in Italy (but with another 41% to Creemos in the latter).
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Estrella
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« Reply #173 on: October 18, 2020, 09:40:28 PM »

1.5% in, Mesa (CC) leads with 55% against 37% for Arce (MAS) and 7% for Camacho (Creemos).

Now, it's tempting to go for the Mexican comparisions, but it's worth noting that in 1988, after it became clear that the election was rigged, there was a massive, massive wave of indignation and protests, but it eventually came to an end.

However, back then, the PRI had advantages the current de-facto-one-woman-junta doesn't. First, the candidate that the election was rigged against was until recently a member of the PRI and could be negotiated with - indeed, he was negotiated with and accepted the result, though he wasn't very happy with it. Second, Mexicans were used to sham elections and so many people simply shrugged and thought 'okay, it's just one more stolen election, like many others'. Third, there wasn't that much of an ideological (or ethnic!) divide - the opposition presented themselves as "we're like the government, but less authoritarian and more principled!". These things are how they managed to reach a negotiated solution.

Point being, if the right really does win and it becomes clear that it was because the numbers were cut out of whole cloth, something is going to happen, and it's not going to be pretty.
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Red Velvet
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« Reply #174 on: October 18, 2020, 11:10:24 PM »

Lol so you’re telling me that after one year of expelling the guy who won last elections because of a system glitch during vote counting now the same thing is happening again? Don’t tell me they didn’t have time to make this as transparent as possible and didn’t know people would pay attention to every minimal detail...

This is giving me Bolivia 2019/US Iowa Democratic Caucus 2020 vibes. Why no exit polls this time and why does it take so long?
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