Bolivia elections - 2019-2020 - Arce Victory

[Lumine]

Not a very impressive line-up, that's for sure. MAS or Camacho winning would probably just start new problems of its own or make current ones worse (and/or validate their respective morally questionable actions and/or statements), and the less said about Chi Hyung Chung the better (gods, I wish Evangelical pastors never ran for President in Latin America).

So yeah, Mesa seems like the least depressing option. Which is depressing on its own, I might say.

[Lord Halifax]

Probable MAS candidates:

Andrónico Rodríguez, coca-leaf trade unionist

Adriana Salvatierra, provisional president for a couple of hours and former senator (she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

David Choquehuanca (trade unionist, Minister for International Relations 2006-2007, since then General Secretary of the ALBA [the Venezuela-led anti NAFTA/FTAA project])-Luis Arce (Economy Minister 2006-2017)

Has Arce agreed to be Choquehuanca's running mate? Or is he a fourth potential candidate.

David Choquehuanca is 58, Arce is 56 and Salvatierra & Rodríguez are both "kids" around 30. Do you think MAS will prefer a young candidate or someone from Morales' generation?

[Alex]

Probable MAS candidates:

Andrónico Rodríguez, coca-leaf trade unionist

Adriana Salvatierra, provisional president for a couple of hours and former senator (she resigned to avoid being president during the hardest moment of the resignation/coup protests)

David Choquehuanca (trade unionist, Minister for International Relations 2006-2007, since then General Secretary of the ALBA [the Venezuela-led anti NAFTA/FTAA project])-Luis Arce (Economy Minister 2006-2017)

Has Arce agreed to be Choquehuanca's running mate? Or is he a fourth potential candidate.

David Choquehuanca is 58, Arce is 56 and Salvatierra & Rodríguez are both "kids" around 30. Do you think MAS will prefer a young candidate or someone from Morales' generation?

The article I got it from said that Arce may be Choquehuanca's VP candidate, but a lot of other articles say they'd run separate

[Alex]

Yesterday the OAS released their final 96-pages-long report on the audits of the October elections

Their "conclusion is that there was "intentional manipulation" and "serious irregularities" that make it impossible to validate the results originally issued by the Bolivian electoral authorities."

"The report confirms that the intentional manipulation of the elections took place in two areas. First, the audit detected changes in the minutes and the falsification of the signatures of poll officials. Second, it was found that in the processing of the results the data flow was redirected to two hidden servers and not controlled by personnel of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), which made it possible to manipulate data and falsify minutes. "These servers, and the direct results from the votes "counted" in these, were also hidden from the auditing company

"To this are added serious irregularities, such as the lack of protection of the acts and the loss of sensitive material. The report also details a significant number of errors and indices."

"The audit findings also reveal the partiality of the electoral authority. The members of the TSE, who were tasked with ensuring the legality and integrity of the process, allowed the flow of information to be diverted to external servers, destroying all confidence in the electoral process."

The conclusion of the report is that “the manipulations and irregularities indicated do not allow for certainty about the margin of victory of the candidate Evo Morales over the candidate Carlos Mesa. On the contrary, based on the overwhelming evidence found, what can be affirmed is that there has been a series of intentional operations aimed at altering the will expressed at the polls.”

OAS Press Release: https://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-109/19

Complete Report (in Spanish): http://www.oas.org/es/sap/deco/Informe-Bolivia-2019/

[Alex]

Mini update:

Camacho confirmed that Pumari won't be his VP candidate , and the latter may run on his own for the presidency

[Lumine]

Pumari won't be Camacho's VP (allegedly due to some policy differences and because Pumari wanted to lead the ticket), so it appears likely that both of them will run for President instead. Camacho has picked up the endorsement of several minor parties, MAS is yet to pick a candidate, but they've chosen Morales to be their "campaign chief".

Also, the first poll came up, though the results don't seem very reliable:

Camacho: 16%
Pumari: 16%
Rodriguez (MAS): 16%
Mesa: 14%
Chi Hyung Chung: 10%

[Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce]

Lmao Camacho and Pumari are back together again. Latest poll had Rodríguez at 23%, Mesa at 21%, Camacho at 13%, and Pumari at 10%; MAS percentage dropped significantly when substituting David Choquehuanca, the apparent other most popular potential MAS candidate, for Rodriguez (down to about 10%) but that’s probably more due to name recognition than anything else.

[Alex]

MAS will announce their presidential candidate on on January 19

[Alex]

The Electoral Court has finally set the date for the new elections, May 3

[PSOL]

Well things seem to be heating up

[Alex]

Well things seem to be heating up

How is this related to anything happening in Bolivia?

[Lumine]

The split of the opposition vote continues with the entry of former President Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002, Hugo Banzer's VP, lost the election to Evo) and Felix Patzi (was Morales's Education Minister in 2006-2007, went from MAS to the opposition), despite the current government's efforts to forge a united front against MAS.

Morales has made the news from Argentina with the leaking of a tape, in which Morales discusses the need to form "popular armed militias" (quoting Venezuela and Maduro as a direct example). Unsurprisingly, this has sparked quite a bit of controversy.

[Alex]

MAS officially endorsed a David Choquehuanca - Andrónico Rodríguez presidential ticket

Party leaders and allies will meet with Morales, here in Buenos Aires, in a couple of days to make the official announcement

[RodPresident]

The split of the opposition vote continues with the entry of former President Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002, Hugo Banzer's VP, lost the election to Evo) and Felix Patzi (was Morales's Education Minister in 2006-2007, went from MAS to the opposition), despite the current government's efforts to forge a united front against MAS.

Morales has made the news from Argentina with the leaking of a tape, in which Morales discusses the need to form "popular armed militias" (quoting Venezuela and Maduro as a direct example). Unsurprisingly, this has sparked quite a bit of controversy.

Opposition's pulverization can help Mesa's speech to be lesser evil as more electable candidate against MAS guy in runoff?

[Alex]

There were some last minute changes as Choquehuanca has now been demoted to VP candidate, and Luis Arce Will be the presidential candidate in the Evo-approved and now totally official MAS ballot

Morales said that Andrónico Rodriguez (30) is too young (read: inexperienced) to be president and that he is surprised that Andrónico was leading the polls. Rodriguez also didn't assists to the meeting with Evo in Buenos Aires, citing security reasons, which may have influenced the final decision

[PSOL]

There were some last minute changes as Choquehuanca has now been demoted to VP candidate, and Luis Arce Will be the presidential candidate in the Evo-approved and now totally official MAS ballot

Morales said that Andrónico Rodriguez (30) is too young (read: inexperienced) to be president and that he is surprised that Andrónico was leading the polls. Rodriguez also didn't assists to the meeting with Evo in Buenos Aires, citing security reasons, which may have influenced the final decision

If MAS loses because of the further damage from this spat, it’s going to be on Evo for losing the country to ruin.

[Lumine]

And, in (yet) another plot twist, President Añez announces she's running for a full term. The additional split of the opposition vote aside - are they actively trying to lose? - Añez appears to have started with her bid with several relevant former Mesa supporters behind her, so it appears Mesa will be the biggest loser from this.

Current field:
(Used the colors Bolivian parties currently use)

Luis Arce / David Choquehuanca (MAS)
Jeanine Añez / TBD (MDS)
Carlos Mesa / Gustavo Pedraza (CC)
Luis Fernando Camacho / Marcos Pumarí (Backed by PDC, ADN, UCS)
Chi Hyun Chung / TBD (Independent, former PDC)
Jorge Quiroga / TBD (MNR)
Félix Patzi / TBD (MTS)

[FredLindq]

Was not Camacho the candidate for MNR until now? And why is former ADN member Quoirga candidate for MNR now?

[Unbeatable Titan Luis Arce]

And, in (yet) another plot twist, President Añez announces she's running for a full term. The additional split of the opposition vote aside - are they actively trying to lose? - Añez appears to have started with her bid with several relevant former Mesa supporters behind her, so it appears Mesa will be the biggest loser from this.

Current field:
(Used the colors Bolivian parties currently use)

Luis Arce / David Choquehuanca (MAS)
Jeanine Añez / TBD (MDS)
Carlos Mesa / Gustavo Pedraza (CC)
Luis Fernando Camacho / Marcos Pumarí (Backed by PDC, ADN, UCS)
Chi Hyun Chung / TBD (Independent, former PDC)
Jorge Quiroga / TBD (MNR)
Félix Patzi / TBD (MTS)

Mesa is already going on the offensive against Áñez and Morales is loving it.

[Alex]

Camacho terminated his presidential campaign earlier today and called for unity in the anti-Evo camp

[Alex]

And in other news, Evo's candidacy for Senator has been rejected by the Electoral Court, as he doesn't meet the requirement of living in Bolivia (he's still in Argentina)

[CumbrianLeftie]

All going swimmingly, then?

[PSOL]

What good informative journalism from the Washington Post

[afleitch]

Oops. Centrists batting against democracy yet again.

[CumbrianLeftie]

Oops. Centrists batting against democracy yet again.

As some of us said at the time (and were, predictably, shouted down for it)