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March 04, 2021, 07:56:23 AM

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, afleitch, Hash)
  Merkel's successor
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Poll
Question: Who will succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor?
#1
Friedrich Merz (CDU)
#2
Armin Laschet (CDU)
#3
Norbert Röttgen (CDU)
#4
another CDU poltician
#5
Markus Söder (CSU)
#6
another CSU politician
#7
Robert Habeck (Greens)
#8
Annalena Baerbock (Greens)
#9
Winfried Kretschmann (Greens)
#10
Cem Özdemir (Greens)
#11
another Green politician
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Merkel's successor  (Read 2491 times)
Spring is coming ⛅🌱🍃🌸🐑🐰🐣
Hades
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« Reply #25 on: February 01, 2021, 09:40:45 PM »

"Ö" is usually being transcribed as "oe", so some might probably pronounce it like the oe in "Kelly Loeffler" (ɛ) - Germans on the other hand pronounce Kelly Loeffler as if her name had an "ö" (ø). Tongue (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZjH8GEZiQ0 - minute 1:03)

German news anchors have a problem with the correct pronunciation of German-looking names anyway.
They used to pronounce Michele Bachmann's and Robert Mueller's names wrong for a very long time, and they still refuse to pronounce Obama's and Beyoncé's names correctly, enunciating it like "BÄ - räck" and "bee - yon - CEE". Roll Eyes
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #26 on: February 02, 2021, 09:47:47 AM »

"Ö" is usually being transcribed as "oe", so some might probably pronounce it like the oe in "Kelly Loeffler" (ɛ) - Germans on the other hand pronounce Kelly Loeffler as if her name had an "ö" (ø). Tongue (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZjH8GEZiQ0 - minute 1:03)

German news anchors have a problem with the correct pronunciation of German-looking names anyway.
They used to pronounce Michele Bachmann's and Robert Mueller's names wrong for a very long time, and they still refuse to pronounce Obama's and Beyoncé's names correctly, enunciating it like "BÄ - räck" and "bee - yon - CEE". Roll Eyes

Nothing wrong about that imo. It would be much simpler to drop the (relatively novel) idea that the pronunciation in the country people are from (or sometimes the one their ancestors are from) is the "correct" one and just pronounce all names the way you'd naturally do in your own language.
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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #27 on: February 02, 2021, 04:15:47 PM »

Where is the Merkel V option? (Although that would still leave the open question who will succeed her after Merkel V.)

This option is indeed also being discussed by self-proclaimed pundits. But she's done with politics. I can't imagine whatsoever that she is in the mood for enduring four more years of stresses and strains. No chancellor prior to her has had to master as many crises as her; no CDU chancellor prior to her has had to take responsibility for the formation of a successfully established party right of the Union.
Well, technically she could resign halfway through the next legislative period, of course, and theoretically it would even make some sense due to the "unique circumstances", but the CDU is bound to elect a new chairman very soon according to the Political Parties Act, and he will lay claim to the chancellorship. And the CSU will have some say also. Moreover, such an unexpected solo run by the chancellor would boost the AfD's poll numbers.
any possible she could get the president Job one day?
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Astatine ☢️
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« Reply #28 on: February 02, 2021, 04:23:52 PM »

Where is the Merkel V option? (Although that would still leave the open question who will succeed her after Merkel V.)

This option is indeed also being discussed by self-proclaimed pundits. But she's done with politics. I can't imagine whatsoever that she is in the mood for enduring four more years of stresses and strains. No chancellor prior to her has had to master as many crises as her; no CDU chancellor prior to her has had to take responsibility for the formation of a successfully established party right of the Union.
Well, technically she could resign halfway through the next legislative period, of course, and theoretically it would even make some sense due to the "unique circumstances", but the CDU is bound to elect a new chairman very soon according to the Political Parties Act, and he will lay claim to the chancellorship. And the CSU will have some say also. Moreover, such an unexpected solo run by the chancellor would boost the AfD's poll numbers.
any possible she could get the president Job one day?
Unlikely, she seems to be pretty much done with politics. The next presidential casting shows elections are in 2022 and Steinmeier probably emerges as consensus candidate once again. Former Bundestag speaker Norbert Lammert would make a formidable President, but he declined to run in 2017, so it's not likely he'll do so in one year. If Steinmeier really retires, the presidency is pretty much a wild card... Names floating around in general have been Andreas Voßkuhle (former Chief Justice at the Supreme Court) and (LOL) Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #29 on: February 02, 2021, 04:36:13 PM »

any possible she could get the president Job one day?

Possible, yes, but no ex-chancellor has ever been president. Former state PM or former federal minister is the default option.

No one really knows what Merkel's retirement (or rather, future career) plans are. She is unlikely to take a corporate job (like Schröder) or work the talk show circuit (like Schmidt).

My best guess would have been a UN or EU job, but with a fellow European and a fellow German in the respective top positions right now, those routes are probably closed. Who would trust her to play second fiddle? NATO perhaps, or a more obscure int'l organization.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #30 on: February 02, 2021, 06:46:03 PM »

any possible she could get the president Job one day?

Possible, yes, but no ex-chancellor has ever been president. Former state PM or former federal minister is the default option.

No one really knows what Merkel's retirement (or rather, future career) plans are. She is unlikely to take a corporate job (like Schröder) or work the talk show circuit (like Schmidt).

My best guess would have been a UN or EU job, but with a fellow European and a fellow German in the respective top positions right now, those routes are probably closed. Who would trust her to play second fiddle? NATO perhaps, or a more obscure int'l organization.


She's 66, so why do you think she won't simply retire? You don't usually get a top job in an IO at that age.
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Hades
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« Reply #31 on: February 04, 2021, 02:41:25 AM »

German news anchors have a problem with the correct pronunciation of German-looking names anyway.
They used to pronounce Michele Bachmann's and Robert Mueller's names wrong for a very long time, and they still refuse to pronounce Obama's and Beyoncé's names correctly, enunciating it like "BÄ - räck" and "bee - yon - CEE". Roll Eyes

Nothing wrong about that imo. It would be much simpler to drop the (relatively novel) idea that the pronunciation in the country people are from (or sometimes the one their ancestors are from) is the "correct" one and just pronounce all names the way you'd naturally do in your own language.

On the other hand, it always makes my toenails curl when I hear the American pronunciation of "Arnold Schwarzenegger". It still sounds like a verbal malapropism of his name to me.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #32 on: February 04, 2021, 03:05:29 AM »

Where is the Merkel V option? (Although that would still leave the open question who will succeed her after Merkel V.)

This option is indeed also being discussed by self-proclaimed pundits. But she's done with politics. I can't imagine whatsoever that she is in the mood for enduring four more years of stresses and strains. No chancellor prior to her has had to master as many crises as her; no CDU chancellor prior to her has had to take responsibility for the formation of a successfully established party right of the Union.
Well, technically she could resign halfway through the next legislative period, of course, and theoretically it would even make some sense due to the "unique circumstances", but the CDU is bound to elect a new chairman very soon according to the Political Parties Act, and he will lay claim to the chancellorship. And the CSU will have some say also. Moreover, such an unexpected solo run by the chancellor would boost the AfD's poll numbers.
any possible she could get the president Job one day?
Unlikely, she seems to be pretty much done with politics. The next presidential casting shows elections are in 2022 and Steinmeier probably emerges as consensus candidate once again. Former Bundestag speaker Norbert Lammert would make a formidable President, but he declined to run in 2017, so it's not likely he'll do so in one year. If Steinmeier really retires, the presidency is pretty much a wild card... Names floating around in general have been Andreas Voßkuhle (former Chief Justice at the Supreme Court) and (LOL) Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.


She could move to the U.S and run for for elected office here (I'd vote for her).

Also, where's the option for the AfD getting the Challenchorship?

I feel that's not out of the question given the nationalist tide sweeping the world.
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Alcibiades
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« Reply #33 on: February 04, 2021, 04:01:06 AM »

Where is the Merkel V option? (Although that would still leave the open question who will succeed her after Merkel V.)

This option is indeed also being discussed by self-proclaimed pundits. But she's done with politics. I can't imagine whatsoever that she is in the mood for enduring four more years of stresses and strains. No chancellor prior to her has had to master as many crises as her; no CDU chancellor prior to her has had to take responsibility for the formation of a successfully established party right of the Union.
Well, technically she could resign halfway through the next legislative period, of course, and theoretically it would even make some sense due to the "unique circumstances", but the CDU is bound to elect a new chairman very soon according to the Political Parties Act, and he will lay claim to the chancellorship. And the CSU will have some say also. Moreover, such an unexpected solo run by the chancellor would boost the AfD's poll numbers.
any possible she could get the president Job one day?
Unlikely, she seems to be pretty much done with politics. The next presidential casting shows elections are in 2022 and Steinmeier probably emerges as consensus candidate once again. Former Bundestag speaker Norbert Lammert would make a formidable President, but he declined to run in 2017, so it's not likely he'll do so in one year. If Steinmeier really retires, the presidency is pretty much a wild card... Names floating around in general have been Andreas Voßkuhle (former Chief Justice at the Supreme Court) and (LOL) Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.


She could move to the U.S and run for for elected office here (I'd vote for her).

Also, where's the option for the AfD getting the Challenchorship?

I feel that's not out of the question given the nationalist tide sweeping the world.

Uhhh...not happening. They’re at around 10% in the polls (having gone backwards from their 2017 performance) and no party’s going to go into coalition with them.
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Astatine ☢️
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« Reply #34 on: February 04, 2021, 10:14:13 AM »

Where is the Merkel V option? (Although that would still leave the open question who will succeed her after Merkel V.)

This option is indeed also being discussed by self-proclaimed pundits. But she's done with politics. I can't imagine whatsoever that she is in the mood for enduring four more years of stresses and strains. No chancellor prior to her has had to master as many crises as her; no CDU chancellor prior to her has had to take responsibility for the formation of a successfully established party right of the Union.
Well, technically she could resign halfway through the next legislative period, of course, and theoretically it would even make some sense due to the "unique circumstances", but the CDU is bound to elect a new chairman very soon according to the Political Parties Act, and he will lay claim to the chancellorship. And the CSU will have some say also. Moreover, such an unexpected solo run by the chancellor would boost the AfD's poll numbers.
any possible she could get the president Job one day?
Unlikely, she seems to be pretty much done with politics. The next presidential casting shows elections are in 2022 and Steinmeier probably emerges as consensus candidate once again. Former Bundestag speaker Norbert Lammert would make a formidable President, but he declined to run in 2017, so it's not likely he'll do so in one year. If Steinmeier really retires, the presidency is pretty much a wild card... Names floating around in general have been Andreas Voßkuhle (former Chief Justice at the Supreme Court) and (LOL) Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.


She could move to the U.S and run for for elected office here (I'd vote for her).

Also, where's the option for the AfD getting the Challenchorship?

I feel that's not out of the question given the nationalist tide sweeping the world.
Destiny decided otherwise: AKK announced today that she'll seek a Bundestag seat - in my district. Smiley So than means that 3 of the 16 Cabinet ministers will run in 2 neighbored districts: AKK in Saarbrücken and both Heiko Maas and Peter Altmaier in Saarlouis.
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njwes
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« Reply #35 on: February 04, 2021, 05:30:01 PM »

Can't imagine they'd pronounce it any other way than "so-der"--I think most Americans (including myself) get a bit stressed when they see the umlaut Tongue

Is that why the Heavy metal umlaut was invented? In order to make Mötley Crüe and Motörhead sound more aggressive and angst-inducing? Tongue

Unironically sort of yes.
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Pick Up the Phone
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« Reply #36 on: February 04, 2021, 08:04:47 PM »

Where is the Merkel V option? (Although that would still leave the open question who will succeed her after Merkel V.)

This option is indeed also being discussed by self-proclaimed pundits. But she's done with politics. I can't imagine whatsoever that she is in the mood for enduring four more years of stresses and strains. No chancellor prior to her has had to master as many crises as her; no CDU chancellor prior to her has had to take responsibility for the formation of a successfully established party right of the Union.
Well, technically she could resign halfway through the next legislative period, of course, and theoretically it would even make some sense due to the "unique circumstances", but the CDU is bound to elect a new chairman very soon according to the Political Parties Act, and he will lay claim to the chancellorship. And the CSU will have some say also. Moreover, such an unexpected solo run by the chancellor would boost the AfD's poll numbers.
any possible she could get the president Job one day?
Unlikely, she seems to be pretty much done with politics. The next presidential casting shows elections are in 2022 and Steinmeier probably emerges as consensus candidate once again. Former Bundestag speaker Norbert Lammert would make a formidable President, but he declined to run in 2017, so it's not likely he'll do so in one year. If Steinmeier really retires, the presidency is pretty much a wild card... Names floating around in general have been Andreas Voßkuhle (former Chief Justice at the Supreme Court) and (LOL) Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.


She could move to the U.S and run for for elected office here (I'd vote for her).

Also, where's the option for the AfD getting the Challenchorship?

I feel that's not out of the question given the nationalist tide sweeping the world.

What nationalist tide? This is 2021, not 2016.

The AfD is a political joke. Even the LINKE has better chances to lead the next government.
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Hades
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« Reply #37 on: February 05, 2021, 02:03:24 AM »

What nationalist tide? This is 2021, not 2016.

The AfD is a political joke. Even the LINKE has better chances to lead the next government.

The AfD will probably never be part of a federal government, in that regard you may be right, but as yesterday's Deutschlandtrend indicated, the AfD (and the FDP) might benefit from the exorbitant and unlimited Corona-based restrictions of freedom, whose support has distinctly levelled off for the first time according to the survey - especially if Governor Söder is the chancellor candidate, who is known for masturbating off over his own over-restrictive anti-Corona measures.
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njwes
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« Reply #38 on: February 05, 2021, 05:31:27 PM »

Re: foreign policy, are Laschet and Söder seen as more Atlanticist, or more pro-Russia, or in favor of a more integrated and coordinated foreign policy through EU institutions, or do they not lend themselves to these sorts of labels?
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #39 on: February 05, 2021, 07:37:10 PM »

do they not lend themselves to these sorts of labels?
Applies to 90% of senior politicians in Germany. Though both Laschet and Spahn are somewhat more ideological (i.e. small-c conservative) CxU members than Söder or Röttgen - let alone Merkel, who literally ended up in the party by accident.
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