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January 21, 2021, 07:17:27 PM

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  2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar
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Author Topic: 2020 India assembly elections - Delhi, Bihar  (Read 13268 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #300 on: November 20, 2020, 02:14:27 PM »

IN J&K the first elections will take place since the Article 370 was removed last year for the first phase local DCC councils on Nov 28.  Rivals like JKNC and PDP have formed the Gupkar Alliance (PAGD) along with CPM JPPC and ANC (a JKNC splinter) with a goal of restoring Article 370.

Originally it seems PAGD was going to boycott the polls but it seems last minute they are going to contest.  It seems INC has a tacit support of PAGD without explicit support of it.    In Kashmir it is clear PAGD will sweep polls but in Jammu a de facto PAGD and INC alliance should defeat the BJP is several districts.

BJP is taking advantage of this to squeeze the Hindu vote away from INC by tagging INC as an ally of PAGD which BJP have claimed is now supported by foreign powers (read Pakistan) to undermine India.
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jaichind
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« Reply #301 on: November 28, 2020, 07:46:27 AM »

Looking ahead there are 4 assembly elections in 2021 (WB, Assam, TN, Kerala)

WB - Will be an AITC vs BJP battle.  This time it seems INC will got for a full alliance with Left Front (in 2015 it was a partial one).  I doubt this will save INC-Left Front since there will be tactical voting for AITC to stop BJP and tactical voting for BJP to stop AITC.  There has been significant defections from AITC INC and Left Front to BJP anticipating a big BJP surge.  Most likely it will not be enough for BJP to win but it seem that BJP will have a good shot a winning in 2021 and very good shot at winning in 2026 even if BJP does not win in 2021.

Assam - BJP will struggled to beat back anti-incumbency and blowback over CAA.  BJP will pretty much drop BPF as an ally but keep AGP.  Most likely BJP will rope in UPP as its Bodo ally.  In 2014 BJP was allied with UPP fighting against INC allied with BPF.  For 2016 assembly elections BJP and INC swapped partners and not like square dancing they might swap back.  INC, it seems, will form an alliance with AIUDF.  Most likely with will backfire.  The Muslim vote is very concentrated in Lower Assam and while an INC-AIUDF alliance might prevent some BJP victories in Muslim majority districts where the Muslim vote are split between INC and AIUDF, this will for sure lose Hindu votes for INC in Upper Assam and there will be for sure INC or AIUDF rebels in the fray in Lower Assam undercutting the INC-AIUDF alliance.  INC will also try to form tactical alliances with the new anti-BJP anti-CAA parties AJP and AJCP.  AJP is formed by the Assam regionalist AASU which launched AGP back in the 1980s but now AGP continuing its alliance with BJP despite CAA decided to form another anti-CAA party.  I think the votes are there to defeat BJP-AGP-UPP but most likely they will be splinted leading to a solid shot of the BJP to win re-eelction.

Kerala - INC led UDF has a clear edge over CPM lead LDF.  Key thing to watch is the BJP vote share.  The BJP had a surge in 2016 and it will be interesting to see if they can continue their upward jump.

TN - DMK-INC has a clear edge over AIADMK-BJP.  Scale of victory will depend on how the many smaller parties decide to align with the blocs of run on their own.  If we go with 2019 alignments it will be DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM-IMUL-IJK-KDMK-MDMK vs AIADMK -PMK-BJP-DMDK-PNK-PT-TMC.  MDMK and DMDK will be demanding on a large number of seats and both have the chance of running on their own.  The on again off again talk of movie superstar Rajinikanth forming his own party ahead of the 2021 elections is back on again.  There were similar talk before the 2016 assembly elections and 2019 LS election with nothing taking place.  The fact that the BJP locked up an alliance with AIADMK so quickly versus waiting to form a third front alliance with a Rajinikanth party implies that the BJP does not believe this will go anywhere.
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jaichind
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« Reply #302 on: November 28, 2020, 07:56:12 AM »

Couple of local elections coming up which are indicators of the BJP offensive.

In early Dec there will be elections in the autonomous  Bodoland Territorial Council of Assam.  The BJP is going all out to take over from its ally BPF.  The key fact is that despite forming a plurality of the BTC areas, Bodos does not form a majority.  So if a non-BPF party can consolidate non-Bodos plus getting some Bodo votes it can oust BPF.  This time the BJP seems determined to drop BPF as an ally for the 2021 Assam assembly elections.  There have been a lot of BPF defections to BJP and now there is a solid chance of BJP taking over the BTC from BPF.


Also in early Dec there will be elections to the plurality in Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation in Telengana.  Hyderabad is around 52% Hindu and 44% Muslim.  The Muslims are concentrated in one part of the city.  As a result AIMIM always wins a bunch of seats but not a majority since they have no chance in part of the city where Muslims are not the majority.  It used to be INC vs TDP in the Hindu sections of the city but in 2015 TRS which is a tactical ally of AIMIM swept the Hindu seats.  This time around the BJP is making an aggressive move to take over the Hindu seats and win control of the GHMC.  The BJP plan seems to be to tag TRS as an ally of AIMIM to drive old INC Hindu votes toward BJP.  Even if BJP does not win it plans to wipe out the INC in GHMC and establish itself as the main opposition to TRS in Hyderabad en route to doing the same in Telenagana overall.
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jaichind
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« Reply #303 on: November 30, 2020, 07:11:24 AM »

Times of India projection on what the seat sharing might look like for TN assembly elections between the two blocs (DMK+ and AIADMK+)



I doubt INC will accept 20-25 seats but their relative utility to DMK is much lower than in 2016 now that AIADMK is leaderless and DMK has mostly consolidated behind M. K. Stalin.  I still think INC will get more than 20 seats but it will be less than the 41 it got back in 2016 especially now MDMK is in the DMK fold.

One key X-factor will be the fact that former AIADMK leader VK Sasikala will be let out of prison within a couple of weeks.  With AIADMK without a charismatic leader at the top (CM EPS and AIADMK OPS are good political operators but lack mass appeal) there might be more defections from AIADMK to AIADMK splinter AMMK led by VK Sasikala's nephew TTV Dhinakaran.

I think this is why AIADMK want to stick up an alliance with BJP so quickly even though the BJP brand in TN is fairly toxic.  While BJP will not get AIADMK any votes the BJP, with federal resources at its disposal can facilitate mass defections to AMMK from AIADMK by forming an alliance with AMMK.  Likewise BJP could also facilitate a merger between AIADMK and AMMK.  To some extent AIADMK is mostly accepting that 2021 assembly election is lost and is now mostly working to make sure that AIADMK is in one piece after the 2021 elections.  This is where having BJP on its side is critical.
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jaichind
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« Reply #304 on: December 03, 2020, 10:45:34 AM »

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tamil-nadu/rajinikanth-to-launch-political-party-in-january/article33237993.ece

In TN, movie superstar Rajinikanth will launch his party in Jan.  This could upset various political equations for the TN assembly elections in 2021.  Most likely not.  It is not clear if Rajinikanth himself will run and be the CM candidate of the new party and risk the humiliation of personal defeat.  If he does not I suspect his party will go nowhere although might pick up 5%-10% as a novelty faction only to decline from the next election.  One way for this to have a big impact would be for Rajinikanth to run as CM candidate with an alliance with BJP.  Rajinikanth party-BJP combo will not win but could get a fair amount of seats.  As it is BJP seems to have, for better or worse, picked AIADMK to be its ally so this scenario will most likely not come to pass.
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jaichind
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« Reply #305 on: December 03, 2020, 11:01:06 AM »

Hyderabad Municipal Corporation election took place a couple of days ago and the count is tomorrow.  Turnout was not much higher than it was in 2016.

Back in 2016 it was TRS 102 seats, AIMIM 42, TDP-BJP 4, INC 1.

People Pluse exit polls for 2020 elections has a solid TRS victory despite a massive effort by BJP to beat out TRS in an upset.  Exit poll has TRS 68-78, AIMIM 38-40, BJP 25-35 which is a massive improvement from 2016, INC 1-5.  Vote share wise exit poll has TRS at 36% BJP 32%, AIMIM 13% and INC 12%.  It seems some of the Muslim vote shifted to TRS to beat back BJP.

Other exit poll has an even larger TRS victory
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jaichind
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« Reply #306 on: December 03, 2020, 04:56:19 PM »

List of all Hyderabad Municipal Corporation election exit polls



BJP making gains relative to TRS but nowhere as much as they hoped.  But they are making good progress toward displacing INC as the alternative to TRS in urban Telangana
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jaichind
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« Reply #307 on: December 04, 2020, 06:20:48 AM »

Hyderabad Municipal Corporation  count in progress.

Out of 146 with leads it is

TRS     65
BJP      41
AIMIM  37
INC       3

BJP doing a bit better than exit polls.   BJP clearly cutting into the TRS Hindu vote which actually at the margins helped INC gain a couple of seats.  TRS-AIMIM will form a post-election alliance and capture the mayor position is beyond doubt. Still BJP is a winner since they now are established as the alternative to TRS in  Hyderabad.
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jaichind
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« Reply #308 on: December 04, 2020, 09:49:34 AM »

As more results come in the count is getting more favorable for the BJP which is clearly outperforming exit polls

TRS     56  (-43)
BJP      49  (+45)
AIMIM  43  (-1)
INC       2  (--)

AIMIM continued to sweep the deep Muslim districts just like 2016 but BJP eats into the TRS Hindu vote to take over 40 seats away from TRS.
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jaichind
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« Reply #309 on: December 04, 2020, 06:28:12 PM »

So in the end the Hyderabad Municipal Corporation results are

TRS      55(-44)
BJP       48(+44)
AIMIM   44(--)
INC         2(--)

with 1 seat where it is pending recount most likely going to TRS.

The places where BJP flipped TRS seats were as expected, areas closer to the Muslim quarters where Muslims make up a significant minority but not majority of the ward.  In those wards the Hindu vote consolidated behind the BJP to defeat TRS and AIMIM and flipped the TRS seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #310 on: December 09, 2020, 09:28:07 AM »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/08/nationwide-farmers-strike-shuts-down-large-parts-of-india

The scale of farmer protest over the new farm law is getting larger and larger with large number protesters from Punjab and Haryana and some from UP blocking roads in and out of New Delhi.  Modi is now facing one of the toughest challenges of his reign.  The new farm law opens up different markets were farms can sell their goods but will lead to the ending of MSP (minimum support price) regime that was in place since the 1960s where the government will buy farm products at a minimum price which puts a floor on farm prices.  The government now has a massive surplus of food stored up and has been reduced to throwing away the food it bought given the agriculture production surge last couple of decades.   

If Modi back down I think his regime would lose credibility but if he does not the economic impact of all these blockades will add to the economic pain on top of the COVID-19 lockdown hits. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #311 on: December 13, 2020, 07:40:41 AM »

Bodoland Territorial Council of Assam election results are out.  It is

BPF    17
UPPL  12
BJP      9
INC     1
GSP     1

Even though BPF UPPL BJP INC-AIUDF ran separately it was clear that BJP and UPPL planned to form a post election alliance just like BPF was planning on getting INC-AIUDF support in case it could not win a majority on its own.  Looks like UPPL-BJP managed to win a bare majority and edges out BPF in a major setback for BPF as it is clear part of the BPF vote has shifted to BJP given the need for federal subsidies for BTC.

This sets the stage for the 2021 Assam assembly elections alliance to revert to 2014 LS pattern of BJP-UPPL vs INC-BPF in Bodoland.  In 2016 assembly elections the partners were flipped with BJP-BPF vs INC-UPPL.
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jaichind
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« Reply #312 on: December 13, 2020, 07:42:54 AM »

UPPL head Promode Bodo will take over BTC with a 22-18 majority for UPPL-BJP-GSP.  BPF leader Hagrama Mohilary  loses control of BTC for the first time since it was created in 2003.
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jaichind
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« Reply #313 on: December 22, 2020, 12:23:12 PM »

J&K DCC election results coming in.  So far with leads it is

PAGD     111 (JKN, PDP and CPM alliance dedicated to restoring Article 270)
BJP          75
INC         27
JKAP       13 (PDP splinter)
Others     52 (mostly independents in Kashmir)

BJP won a few seats in Muslim dominated Kashmir which is a shock.  I guess with J&K becoming a Territory where the Central government has control of the local police meant some local Muslim factions have gone over to the BJP to get the police on their side.  BJP actually underperformed in Jammu where the INC was able to win some seats in Hindu areas despite expectations that the BJP will sweep all Hindu seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #314 on: December 23, 2020, 07:06:11 AM »

Results of J&K DCC elections



Voting was held in 280 seats - 14 in each of the 20 districts of the union territory.

As mentioned before BJP won 3 seats in Kashmir which is a breakthrough for the BJP.  In Jammu BJP underperformed with PAGD alliance winning in Muslim parts of Jammu and INC managing to win some seats in Hindu parts of Jammu.  Since J&K was made a union territory the power of JKN and PDP have been broken somewhat in Kasmir with large number of independents (many which I am sure are radicals) winning seats. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #315 on: December 24, 2020, 06:46:43 AM »

Vote share in J&K DCC elections

INC actually did reasonably well under the circumstances in terms of vote share given the Muslim-Hindu polarization between PAGD alliance and BJP.  INC, it seems, got a good amount of Hindu votes in Jammu as well some Muslim votes in Kashmir


As mentioned before BJP's vote share in Jammu is quite a drop from 2019 LS elections.  In 2019 LS elections JKN and PDP de facto backed INC in Jammu which merely consolidated the Hindu vote behind BJP in response to Muslim consolidation behind INC.  This time around with JKN-PDP led PAGD alliance running separately from INC the Muslim vote mostly went with PAGD in Jammu while some Hindu votes shifted back to INC


Seat wise in the 4 Hindu dominated districts the BJP still took almost all the seats but INC, PAGD was able to fight the BJP to a 3 way draw in mixed districts while PAGD dominated the Muslim dominated districts


Even though there was a slight uptick in BJP support in Kashmir the results in Jammu will give BJP some pause before pushing for assembly elections in J&K.  It will have to take place in 2021 but now it seems it will be later in 2021 than early 2021.
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jaichind
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« Reply #316 on: December 30, 2020, 03:38:27 PM »

Just as the year is about to end, TN movie superstar Rajinikanth announces he will NOT form a new party in early 2021 contrary to what he announced just a month ago

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/rajini-junks-political-plans-after-warning-from-god/articleshow/80018763.cms

He claims this is due to a "warning from God" but more likely he concluded that despite the death of Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha since 2016, neither DMK nor AIADMK will fall apart in 2021 assembly elections making his party at beat a distant third in a 2021 election. 

On paper this helps BJP since Rajinikanth and BJP are close and perhaps he might end up endorsing the AIADMK-BJP bloc.  In reality a Rajinikanth  party would most likely create more churn in the party system when status quo favors a DMK bloc victory given AIADMK's lack of a charismatic leader and double anti-incumbency.   
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