2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I'll see what ER comes up with and may share my bubble after. The Top 4 seed chaos is even more demotivating because we thought we had it all figured out. Can't wait to see what Warren Nolan shows when it loads properly. We all did turrible this week.

Maryland somehow still remains a 2 seed even though they have long been almost assured of blowing a 3 game conference lead for a week and a half now. I don't know if this can possibly last.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One thing that's clear is that we've done a lot worse picking basketball than football.  Is basketball just inherently more variable?  Or maybe particularly so this year?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

St. John's making a late push for the NIT by shooting 70% from 3 to extend their lead to 20 over Creighton. This game is at Carnesecca not MSG (and 95 year old Luigi Carnesecca is attendance). It's a 12 foot drop to storm the court from the student risers, which would be even crazier than the court in Provo. I can't imagine that is remotely possible but I'm hoping for it. If I were a student I would try! Some AAC hack was ragging on UConn for having to play St. John's next year, but I think LJ Figueroa as a senior will be better than Shamorie Ponds and that Mike Anderson's first recruiting class will have this team back very quickly and likely a top contender in the Big East.

Back to this season, they will be favored here against Marquette too in a what will be a senior day to remember.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What the heck happened in Wichita State-SMU?  The last score I saw had Wichita down 50-26, then then ended up winning 66-62.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

One of my favourite matters to track this week - especially as part of St. Francis (Brooklyn)'s diehard Terrier fanbase - is that of that longest NCAA Tournament droughts. This week there is a rather decent probability that the Forgotten Four become the Tortured Three (The Terriers would only be joined by military academies ).

William & Mary is the 2-seed in the Colonial bracket, and they drew just about the weakest 3-seed imaginable (avoiding Charleston and Delaware in favor of Towson). This will be their 82nd chance to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, and they hope to finally break the curse. Good luck to the Tribe! I track droughts exceeding 15 years, and the #1 seed in this bracket is Hofstra. Despite last year being terrific for Hofstra, they failed to win the Colonial Tournament meaning they have missed 18 consecutive NCAA Tournaments. This was supposed to be the rebuild year, so it would be nice vengeance for the remaining players to end this streak short of 20! (e: KenPom does not like W&M's chances and loves Northeastern as the 6-seed! 12.6% chance for the Tribe. 29.6% chance for Hofstra.)

Of course this season's darling is Rutgers, who last made the tournament 29 years ago. But they share the distinction of 34th longest drought with three others who standing a fighting chance. Towson, the 3 seed from the aforementioned Colonial would also be a streakbreaker, but I am most optimistic for #2 St. Francis (PA) who per KenPom is a slight favourite in the NEC despite having a potential road championship game against their neighbor to look forward to. The final member of the classic 1991 tournament is Louisiana Tech, who is likely to be the 3 seed in Conference-USA. However, they have an uphill battle having lost to the 2-seed twice already.

Some other teams positioned to break the streak are:
Bowling Green - They have the third longest drought among teams who have once tasted the joys of March - way back in 1968 (tell us about it, GM - they lost to the team that lost to the team that lost to the team that lost to the team that won the national title so I'm sure it was a memorable game )! Akron may be most beloved in the NET, but Bowling Green may just wind up as the 1-seed in the MAC Tournament with a week to go.
Furman - the drought may hit 40 years as they are once again the 2-seed in a super strong SoCon but have proven to be every bit ETSU's equal throughout the season. I watched Round 2 between these foes, and I hope we get a Round 3 in the SoCon title. If they lose this year, I don't think it will last much longer with a very dedicated Athletics Department.

There are about eight teams looking for their first bid who are the 3 seed or 4 seed in their conference, but most seem rather unlikely candidates. The only "returning" team from this range would be Duquesne from the Class of 1977 who had a nice season but has way too much competition. I think someone like Saint Louis could beat Dayton; but Duquesne sounds like a gift for UD.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sorry, the only thing I remember from the 67-68 season was the famous Astrodome game in which Houston and Elvin Hayes broke a 47-game winning streak by UCLA (featuring Lew Alcindor, before he was Kareem).  UCLA later avenged this loss in the Final Four.

I vaguely remember the '69 tournament, and definitely the 1970 one featuring the championship game between UCLA (now led by Sidney Wicks, Alcindor having gone to the Bucks) over Artis Gilmore's Jacksonville.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WEEK 17 RESULTS

JGibson won the week, while Sprouts likely sewed up the overall title.

14 JGibson
12 GeorgiaModerate, Sprouts
11 sjoyce
9 Illiniwek
(only 24 games this week)

The average score was 11.6, which in percentage terms is about the same as the last couple weeks.

Unanimous picks:

Northern Kentucky-Wright State (wrong)
Texas State-UTA
FSU-Clemson (wrong)
Marquette-Seton Hall (wrong)
Duke-Virginia (wrong)
Penn-Brown
San Diego State-Nevada
Gonzaga-St. Mary's
Creighton-St. John's (wrong)

Games with one dissenter (asterisk = dissenter was right):

UNC Greensboro-Chattanooga (*)
Georgia-Arkansas
Alabama-South Carolina
Ohio State-Michigan

Overall standings, with one week to go:

257 Sprouts
250 GeorgiaModerate
238 Illiniwek
235 JGibson
225 sjoyce
178 YE
152 dfw
98 RINO Tom
36 Sunrise

[RINO Tom]

Good God, Minnesota.

[Donerail]

Week 18:

Friday, March 6
Buffalo @ Bowling Green State – 5pm – ESPNU
Richmond @ Duquesne – 6pm – ESPN+
#6 Missouri State vs. #3 Indiana State [MVC tournament] – 8:30pm – ESPN+

Saturday, March 7
#14 Villanova @ Georgetown – 11am – FOX
#24 Wisconsin @ Indiana – 11am
Marquette @ St. John’s – 11am
#4 Baylor @ West Virginia – 12pm – ESPN+
#6 Kentucky @ Florida – 12pm – CBS
#1 Kansas @ Texas Tech – 1pm – ESPN
#8 Seton Hall @ #11 Creighton – 1:30pm – FOX
#5 Western Carolina vs. #4 Mercer [SoCon tournament] – 1:30pm – ESPN+
Alabama @ Missouri – 1:30pm – SEC
UCLA @ USC – 2:15pm – CBS
#10 Louisville @ #22 Virginia – 3pm – ESPN
North Carolina @ #12 Duke – 5pm – ESPN
Yale @ Harvard – 6pm – ESPN+
SMU @ South Florida – 6pm – ESPN3
Western Kentucky @ Florida International – 6pm
Butler @ Xavier – 7:30pm – FS1
Stanford @ #13 Oregon – 10pm – FS1

Sunday, March 8
#25 Michigan @ #9 Maryland – 11am – FOX
#19 Ohio State @ #16 Michigan State – 3:30pm – CBS
#18 Iowa @ #23 Illinois – 6pm – BTN
#4 Nebraska-Omaha vs #5 Oral Roberts [Summit League tournament] – 6pm – ESPN+
#6 Northeastern vs. #3 Towson [CAA tournament] – 7:30pm

There are gonna be a lot of great games in the championship bracket that we just don’t know yet — look out for ETSU playing the Western Carolina–Mercer winner on Sunday afternoon and a potential UNC-Greensboro–Furman matchup that evening, as well as the possibility of UNI vs Bradley and Loyola vs Indiana State on Saturday (and a championship game on Sunday). The Mountain West championship game will also be on Saturday. I picked a handful of conference championship games, but I can’t include the best of them and still get this up before the weekend.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2020 First Crack Bracketology:
Projected conference champs in bold and projected First Four participants in italics.

1 Seeds: Kansas, Gonzaga, Baylor, San Diego State
2 Seeds: Florida State, Dayton, Kentucky, Duke
3 Seeds: Seton Hall, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan State
4 Seeds: Creighton, Villanova, Oregon, Arizona
5 Seeds: Ohio State, Auburn, Colorado, Penn State
6 Seeds: BYU, Butler, Iowa, Wisconsin
7 Seeds: Marquette, Houston, West Virginia, Michigan
8 Seeds: Illinois, Texas Tech, Saint Mary's, LSU
9 Seeds: Stanford, Florida, Virginia, Oklahoma
10 Seeds: Providence, Northern Iowa, Indiana, Rutgers
11 Seeds: ETSU, Arizona State, USC, Utah State/Wichita State
12 Seeds: Xavier/NC State, Liberty, UCLA, Yale
13 Seeds: Vermont, Stephen F. Austin, Akron, North Texas
14 Seeds: Belmont, New Mexico State, Colgate, UC-Irvine
15 Seeds: Hofstra, North Dakota State, Wright State, Eastern Washington
16 Seeds: Little Rock, Winthrop, Prairie View/Siena, Robert Morris/North Carolina A&T

Last Four Byes:
Indiana
Rutgers
Arizona State
USC

Last Four In:
Utah State
Wichita State
Xavier
NC State

First Four Out:
Richmond
Cincinnati
Purdue
Mississippi State

Next Four Out:
Texas
Rhode Island
Alabama
Arkansas

Third Four Out:
South Carolina
Minnesota
Clemson
Memphis

Bids By Conference:
Big Ten: 10
Pac-12: 7
Big East: 7
Big 12: 5
ACC: 5
SEC: 4
WCC: 3
American: 2
MWC: 2

[Illiniwek]

Week 18:

Friday, March 6
Buffalo @ Bowling Green State – 5pm – ESPNU
Richmond @ Duquesne – 6pm – ESPN+
#6 Missouri State vs. #3 Indiana State [MVC tournament] – 8:30pm – ESPN+

Saturday, March 7
#14 Villanova @ Georgetown – 11am – FOX
#24 Wisconsin @ Indiana – 11am
Marquette @ St. John’s – 11am
#4 Baylor @ West Virginia – 12pm – ESPN+
#6 Kentucky @ Florida – 12pm – CBS
#1 Kansas @ Texas Tech – 1pm – ESPN
#8 Seton Hall @ #11 Creighton – 1:30pm – FOX
#5 Western Carolina vs. #4 Mercer [SoCon tournament] – 1:30pm – ESPN+
Alabama @ Missouri – 1:30pm – SEC
UCLA @ USC – 2:15pm – CBS
#10 Louisville @ #22 Virginia – 3pm – ESPN
North Carolina @ #12 Duke – 5pm – ESPN
Yale @ Harvard – 6pm – ESPN+
SMU @ South Florida – 6pm – ESPN3
Western Kentucky @ Florida International – 6pm
Butler @ Xavier – 7:30pm – FS1
Stanford @ #13 Oregon – 10pm – FS1

Sunday, March 8
#25 Michigan @ #9 Maryland – 11am – FOX
#19 Ohio State @ #16 Michigan State – 3:30pm – CBS
#18 Iowa @ #23 Illinois – 6pm – BTN Revenge game!
#4 Nebraska-Omaha vs #5 Oral Roberts [Summit League tournament] – 6pm – ESPN+
#6 Northeastern vs. #3 Towson [CAA tournament] – 7:30pm

[YE]

Not only were the primaries a disaster, Oklahoma lost to Texas in a heartbreaker. Really ugly and defensively fought game but we missed 2 FT's (despite shooting 21/29 from the line on the game and getting 27 more FT attempts than Texas) late and Matt Coleman sunk the game winning 3 with .4 seconds

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not only were the primaries a disaster, Oklahoma lost to Texas in a heartbreaker. Really ugly and defensively fought game but we missed 2 FT's (despite shooting 21/29 from the line on the game and getting 27 more FT attempts than Texas) late and Matt Coleman sunk the game winning 3 with .4 seconds

Texas had only two FT attempts?

[JGibson]

Week 18:

Friday, March 6
Buffalo @ Bowling Green State – 5pm – ESPNU
Richmond @ Duquesne – 6pm – ESPN+
#6 Missouri State vs. #3 Indiana State [MVC tournament] – 8:30pm – ESPN+

Saturday, March 7
#14 Villanova @ Georgetown – 11am – FOX
#24 Wisconsin @ Indiana – 11am
Marquette @ St. John’s – 11am
#4 Baylor @ West Virginia – 12pm – ESPN+
#6 Kentucky @ Florida – 12pm – CBS
#1 Kansas @ Texas Tech – 1pm – ESPN
#8 Seton Hall @ #11 Creighton – 1:30pm – FOX
#5 Western Carolina vs. #4 Mercer [SoCon tournament] – 1:30pm – ESPN+
Alabama @ Missouri – 1:30pm – SEC
UCLA @ USC – 2:15pm – CBS
#10 Louisville @ #22 Virginia – 3pm – ESPN
North Carolina @ #12 Duke – 5pm – ESPN
Yale @ Harvard – 6pm – ESPN+
SMU @ South Florida – 6pm – ESPN3
Western Kentucky @ Florida International – 6pm
Butler @ Xavier – 7:30pm – FS1
Stanford @ #13 Oregon – 10pm – FS1

Sunday, March 8
#25 Michigan @ #9 Maryland – 11am – FOX
#19 Ohio State @ #16 Michigan State – 3:30pm – CBS
#18 Iowa @ #23 Illinois – 6pm – BTN
#4 Nebraska-Omaha vs #5 Oral Roberts [Summit League tournament] – 6pm – ESPN+
#6 Northeastern vs. #3 Towson [CAA tournament] – 7:30pm

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just want to give some recognition to Buzz Williams - never a coach I loved because he abandoned an historic school in the Big East for an ACC doormat. I thought he merely carried on thanks to Tom Crean's coattails for the Golden Eagles, but I couldn't be further off. The sweet spot of the third to fifth years coaching Virginia Tech led to back-to-back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances at a place with no basketball culture. And yet he elects to leave that for an even more ambitious project - an SEC school without a Final Four appearance yet a rather grand budget. He started off the non-conference schedule with a P6 team rated in the analytics outside the top 300 and on pace to be the worst power team of all-time. He transformed this lackluster team to a team that could comfortably win on the road against a top 25 team. This may be the coach that eventually brings a Final Four banner to College Station.

Now, I don't have much respect for this incarnation of Auburn, but I hope this home loss confirms them for the last 6/top 7 seed that their analytics say they deserve rather than the 4/5 the media keeps trying to give them. - Butler on the other hand with all three injured starters looking healthy tonight should be back in the top 5 seed discussion once again. The defense is back.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Myles Powell's senior night may be one of those classic games between two giants that define this era of the New Big East. What a slugfest between two of the nation's most elite teams - one the titan of the last decade that sets the bar and one the more talented team trying to shed its painful history, change the guard atop of the conference, and avenge a few close calls against that giant in the 2017 and 2019 Big East Tournaments.

This is definitely up there with the 2018 overtime thriller for the title in Madison Square Garden where Ed Cooley split his pants. The teams are more evenly matched here. If the Pirates fall to Creighton and miss their chance at an outright title, it will greatly impact how we remember it as a missed opportunity as perhaps one of the games with the most bragging rights associated with it.

I really hope Myles Powell makes the most of his chance in the Big Dance and may we not run into him again too soon!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

WHAT - A - FINISH! WOW!

It just means more!

Georgetown is no longer our top rivalry game. Really blessed that we just get to maul them and have so many iconic games against our nearby neighbor.

[Donerail]

Week 18:

Friday, March 6
Buffalo @ Bowling Green State
Richmond @ Duquesne
#6 Missouri State vs. #3 Indiana State

Saturday, March 7
#14 Villanova @ Georgetown
#24 Wisconsin @ Indiana
Marquette @ St. John’s
#4 Baylor @ West Virginia
#6 Kentucky @ Florida
#1 Kansas @ Texas Tech
#8 Seton Hall @ #11 Creighton
#5 Western Carolina vs. #4 Mercer
Alabama @ Missouri
UCLA @ USC
#10 Louisville @ #22 Virginia
North Carolina @ #12 Duke
Yale @ Harvard
SMU @ South Florida
Western Kentucky @ Florida International
Butler @ Xavier
Stanford @ #13 Oregon

Sunday, March 8
#25 Michigan @ #9 Maryland
#19 Ohio State @ #16 Michigan State
#18 Iowa @ #23 Illinois
#4 Nebraska-Omaha vs #5 Oral Roberts
#6 Northeastern vs. #3 Towson

[GeorgiaModerate]

Picks for tonight: Bowling Green, Duquesne, and Indiana State.  I'll do the others later or tomorrow morning.

[DINGO Joe]

It's extremely hard to pay attention to an election cycle and basketball and have a day job this time of year.  I gotta remember to just take March off every 4 years.

[YE]

Buffalo
Duquesne
Indiana State

Villanova
Wisconsin
St John's
West Virginia
Kentucky
Kansas
Creighton
Mercer
Alabama
USC
Louisville
Duke
Yale
SMU
FIU
Xavier
Oregon

Maryland
Michigan State
Illinois
Nebraska-Omaha
Townson

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Friday, March 6
Buffalo @ Bowling Green State
Richmond @ Duquesne
#6 Missouri State vs. #3 Indiana State

Saturday, March 7
#14 Villanova @ Georgetown
#24 Wisconsin @ Indiana
Marquette @ St. John’s
#4 Baylor @ West Virginia
#6 Kentucky @ Florida
#1 Kansas @ Texas Tech
#8 Seton Hall @ #11 Creighton
#5 Western Carolina vs. #4 Mercer
Alabama @ Missouri
UCLA @ USC
#10 Louisville @ #22 Virginia - The luck just doesn't run out
North Carolina @ #12 Duke
Yale @ Harvard
SMU @ South Florida
Western Kentucky @ Florida International
Butler @ Xavier
Stanford @ #13 Oregon

Sunday, March 8
#25 Michigan @ #9 Maryland
#19 Ohio State @ #16 Michigan State
#18 Iowa @ #23 Illinois
#4 Nebraska-Omaha vs #5 Oral Roberts
#6 Northeastern vs. #3 Towson

[DINGO Joe]

And 1,2 and 3 are out in the Valley tourney(UNI, Loyola and ISU).  Don't think UNI gets an at large. Final 4 are Bradley, Valpo, Mo St. and Drake.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, I've started out a sterling 0-3 (at least I'm not the only one).  Here are the rest of my picks:

#14 Villanova @ Georgetown
#24 Wisconsin @ Indiana
Marquette @ St. John’s
#4 Baylor @ West Virginia
#6 Kentucky @ Florida
#1 Kansas @ Texas Tech
#8 Seton Hall @ #11 Creighton
#5 Western Carolina vs. #4 Mercer
Alabama @ Missouri
UCLA @ USC
#10 Louisville @ #22 Virginia
North Carolina @ #12 Duke
Yale @ Harvard
SMU @ South Florida
Western Kentucky @ Florida International
Butler @ Xavier
Stanford @ #13 Oregon

#25 Michigan @ #9 Maryland
#19 Ohio State @ #16 Michigan State
#18 Iowa @ #23 Illinois
#4 Nebraska-Omaha vs #5 Oral Roberts
#6 Northeastern vs. #3 Towson

[DINGO Joe]

And 1,2 and 3 are out in the Valley tourney(UNI, Loyola and ISU).  Don't think UNI gets an at large. Final 4 are Bradley, Valpo, Mo St. and Drake.

I wanted to sit down and pick which conferences would have outsiders (of the tourney) win them and the Valley was high on my list.  The American is on the list too, but it hard to tell who's in and out on a daily basis in that conference, plus i was shocked  to realize Tulsa was still the 1st place team in the league, and they would be an outsider if they actually won the conference tourney, which i would be double shocked if they did. Super Tuesday pretty much dissolved my efforts.