2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread
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Author Topic: 2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread  (Read 32167 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #325 on: February 08, 2020, 06:55:34 PM »


This tweet is exactly how I've felt for weeks at this point except that it excludes Memphis from a team that will 'fall out' (I've already had them out). Oklahoma picked up a shocking win today so that may no longer be completely true. Florida may replace them on the list!

Arizona State, however, may come at the expense of USC. Big data point coming soon!

Memphis is certainly out after today.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #326 on: February 08, 2020, 08:21:18 PM »

Duke-UNC going to OT after a furious Duke comeback to tie it at the end of regulation.
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« Reply #327 on: February 08, 2020, 08:50:17 PM »

Duke, with a huge assist from the refs, beats UNC 98-96 in OT.
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YE
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« Reply #328 on: February 08, 2020, 10:20:46 PM »

Between Oklahoma easily winning a fun game against a ranked WVU team and UNLV getting a thriller win against Fresno State, good day for my teams.

That aside, I also got to watch two absolute thrillers. Auburn/LSU and Duke/UNC.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #329 on: February 09, 2020, 02:50:31 AM »

Can't decide if Auburn's many close wins means it's battle ready for the tourney or that it's wildly overrated.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #330 on: February 09, 2020, 04:25:58 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2020, 04:31:37 PM by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »

The bubble is thinning quickly! Purdue moves to safe territory by securing a dominating win AND (finally) a road win. Texas Tech also cleared two of the most dangerous teams in their path, and it’s difficult to see them failing to qualify. And Wisconsin has proven their cred without Kobe King in the line up.

Not So Safe Yet!:
#35 Rhode Island – The ticket could be punched this week @Dayton, but it’s very unlikely they will need to take either game against Dayton with the resume they have built up. Forecast: Likely IN.
#38 Arkansas – A tumultuous week with two OT losses to take a bad Q2 loss and miss a Q1 deal sealer. The schedule ahead is treacherous, and every remaining game is expected to be close. Solely carried by wins in Bloomington and Tuscaloosa, which may look a lot worse soon. Forecast: Lean IN coming down to the wire. Metrics like the Hogs, but the resume is not good. Two SEC bubble games this week in Knoxville (Q1) and hosting Mississippi State (Q2) which could significantly alter positioning.
(#36 Northern Iowa) – The remaining road games are not harmful, but the existing losses are costly. Best not to call them ‘safe’ but the state of the bubble should make them feel okay. Forecast: Likely IN
#61 Indiana – Four losses in a row! Every remaining game is against a tournament team and may be underdogs in the next six (all Q1 games). Hosting Iowa before traveling to Ann Arbor. Three of the best bubble wins will boost them for now but many losses will severely dilute the record. Forecast: Deeply endangered (with opportunities ahead). Probably OUT.
#30 Stanford – Losing 5 of 6, but the win was Oregon – and they murdered Oklahoma. Unless they can’t stop losing, this may come down to the wire, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them keep splitting each weekend’s games down the stretch. Forecast: Ask me in one week. I want to see how the Arizona homestand goes. Getting swept will knock them pretty far out, but a sweep will put them in very comfortable position.

Last Four Byes:
#43 Wichita State – Wins against VCU and Oklahoma came at home but are buoying them just above that level of the bubble for now. Going to UCF next week is a Q2 game but a big risk nonetheless. If they survive, they may coast on the ‘in’ side for a couple weeks before a dangerous final stretch. Forecast: Likely to be bumped OUT due to late road games at other AAC bubble teams/SMU.
#48 Oklahoma (Up 1) – Signature win secured! Forecast: Probably IN. Hard to see them missing unless they drop far off road games in Stillwater AND Fort Worth (where they start out as slight underdogs!) Next week is uneventful.
#45 Xavier (Up 3) – I want to put them behind UF based on neutral H2H, but they have snuck ahead on a better signature win and a much better Q2 record after this successful week. Forecast: Lean IN. They just need to take one of the two road games (Butler/SJU) this week to stay in position for a bid.
#47 Florida (Down 3) – They saved themselves from a disastrous Q3 loss only to lose to a worse (albeit Q2) team! So much talent but trending in the wrong direction (especially the defense). Forecast: Tilt OUT. Uneventful week ahead. The question will be if they can beat either Arkansas or LSU in Gainesville while cleaning up the road act to stay narrowly on the straight path. I don’t think so.

Last Four In:
#40 Minnesota (Up 2) – Five outstanding wins albeit in 15 opportunities. This would be what DePaul would look like without the bad losses, but being one game over .500 makes it hard to keep them in. Forecast: Probably IN. They have both Northwestern and Nebraska to improve the record. They are the Big Ten’s best home team and have a full week to prep for hosting Iowa. Road games are do-able. I think you will see them on a CBS affiliate.
#32 VCU (Down 1) – No change from last week even as the NET ranking rises. They really need to win a road game and sweep Richmond on Saturday but their hopes aren’t dead without that. Forecast: Lean IN but could be cannibalized by a bid stealer.
#51 Virginia (Down 3) – It may no longer come down to VA Tech as I alluded to last week, but they have four road games all projected within two points. Can they win two? Does defense travel? The first of those challenges will be as a slight underdog in Chapel Hill (not to overlook a bubble date with Notre Dame in Charlottesville). Forecast: Tilt IN assuming they win both next week
#50 USC – Brutal missed opportunities and Stanford’s tanking costs them one of their two quality wins toppling them overnight. The next week should be a breeze for any bubble team. Afterwards, they have rematches with each of the four expansion teams that caused their 1-3 slide. They will need to come out of it 3-1 to feel good, but they could be underdogs in all of them. Forecast: Probably OUT.

First Four Out:
1) #53 Arizona State (Up 12) – Single spectacular home win and now adding one against a solid bubble team. The neutral H2H loss to UVA is rather unideal as it currently stands. I like the remaining schedule, and I think they could all but secure if they defeat Stanford on the road this week, but I’m not sure they can punch their ticket before the return trip to SoCal. Forecast: Lean IN.
2) #41 Mississippi State (Down 2) – The easiest remaining power conference schedule you can draw up. Picking up a Q1 win in Fayetteville may put them in comfortable position. Fail, and it will be an iffy case Forecast: Lean IN.
3) #49 Utah State (Up 5) – Continuing their trend towards last team in territory when others falter. Forecast: Tilt IN.
(#54 ETSU) – Skeptical due to the result of another loss. We’ll discuss it when necessary.
4) #46 Cincinnati (Up 1) – Finally a Q1 win but still not a quality win. There is clearly an upward trend, but unless they win the auto-bid, I can’t see the resume getting them any better than Dayton. Forecast: Lean IN.

Next Four:
5) #57 Providence (Up 8) – So close to passing Cincinnati based on similarity of resume, but need one more Q1 win due to the Q4 stain. The four most competitive games are all over the next two weeks, and they likely need to go 3-1 (@SJU / SHU / @Georgetown / Marquette). Very doable. Forecast: Lean IN (Bold prediction). Next week may very well move them in!
6) #42 Alabama (Down 4) – The record is abysmal for an SEC school including the Q2 record. Only a single quality win without the secondary wins of a Virginia-type resume. Positioned as they are due to the H2H over Richmond with similar resume and better metrics. Getting swept this week (@Auburn / LSU) may finish them but I can re-evaluate. Forecast: Likely OUT.
7) #55 Richmond (No change) – Very doubtful that a home win over VCU will be enough to be more than a spoiler but they will hover around. Forecast: Probably OUT.
8) #52 Georgetown (Up 1) – Similar resume to Alabama, buoyed by a home win against a top 20 team but the second order wins don’t complement it like they do for ASU or UVA. The remaining schedule is brutal. Three impossible road games. Unlikely to even win two home games. Losing to Seton Hall was time to give up hope. Forecast: Definitely OUT.

Still Alive – but I don’t believe: 9) #60 Memphis (Two road trips this week could knock them even further off the bubble); 10) #66 Texas (Purdue win looking better but Texas just blew their best chance in conference); 11) #62 NC State (First of four Q1 opportunities this week @Syracuse); 12) #65 Syracuse (The Q2 record remains unforgivable and the opportunities just aren’t there); 13) #64 UNC Greensboro (Just keep winning to remain a longshot…); 14) #67 Tennessee (Two Q2 games this week to keep hanging on by a thread); 15) #56 Notre Dame (Still no resume, and I don’t think @UVA this week will create one); 16) #68 Oregon State (Completely absurd resume even surpassing DePaul’s but they show up to big games and have a more reasonable schedule)

Indiana, Arkansas/Stanford, Wichita State, Florida and USC are expected to trend out in favor of the top five bubble teams.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #331 on: February 09, 2020, 05:22:40 PM »

The AAC contenders (except Houston, which is pretty much a lock) have not had a good weekend.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #332 on: February 09, 2020, 06:38:18 PM »

The AAC contenders (except Houston, which is pretty much a lock) have not had a good weekend.

I don't know why I associate you with Memphis fandom for basketball. Do you have a mid-major team given the state of Georgia and Tech basketball?

The really evil side of me really wants UConn to steal a bid one last time in place of all three/four of the bubble contenders. The summer Twitter war of AAC fans saying that their conference was about to overtake the Big East as a conference this year (as a proof of UConn's stupidity) justly infuriated me. (You are obviously a lot more reasonable and logical person than those Ultras, but I just want the conference to start to be overtaken by the depth of the A-10 and have more in common with the WCC - no harm/offense to you).

UConn has the money, desire, fans and coach to be successful. And very soon they will have the conference and conference mates.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #333 on: February 09, 2020, 07:16:56 PM »

The AAC contenders (except Houston, which is pretty much a lock) have not had a good weekend.

I don't know why I associate you with Memphis fandom for basketball. Do you have a mid-major team given the state of Georgia and Tech basketball?

The really evil side of me really wants UConn to steal a bid one last time in place of all three/four of the bubble contenders. The summer Twitter war of AAC fans saying that their conference was about to overtake the Big East as a conference this year (as a proof of UConn's stupidity) justly infuriated me. (You are obviously a lot more reasonable and logical person than those Ultras, but I just want the conference to start to be overtaken by the depth of the A-10 and have more in common with the WCC - no harm/offense to you).

UConn has the money, desire, fans and coach to be successful. And very soon they will have the conference and conference mates.

Among mid-majors, I like Georgia State and Kennesaw State (as well as being local, I have family ties to both).

Regarding Memphis (State), I've followed them in basketball on and off for decades.  I have many relatives in the city and spent a lot of time there when I was young, although I haven't visited it in the last 25 or 30 years.  I became a fan during the Larry Finch era (when he was a player, not coach!) when they had a superb team that lost in the national championship game to UCLA and Bill Walton's legendary 44-point performance.  Over the subsequent years, I loved their intense rivalry with Louisville that carried through several conferences.  It's too bad the two schools eventually went separate ways.

This year, they're obviously a disappointment compared to expectations, but given the Wiseman situation and the injuries they've sustained it's not surprising.  It's also quite obvious that Penny Hardaway is still learning as a coach.  I think he has the potential to be a very good college coach, but it's going to take at least a few more years.

But yes, it's certainly true that the AAC < Big East, and this would have been true even if Memphis had lived up to the preseason hype.  UConn's decision was a good one for them, given their relative priority of football and basketball.  In the long run, it's probably good for AAC football as well, if the conference can find a decent replacement.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #334 on: February 09, 2020, 08:22:20 PM »

WEEK 14 RESULTS

JGibson had a 3-game lead after yesterday, but Sprouts swept today (except for Notre Dame, which everybody missed) to pull into a tie.

16 JGibson, Sprouts
14 GeorgiaModerate, YE
12 Illiniwek

The average score was 14.4, down a hair from last week.

Unanimous picks:

South Carolina-Texas A&M
West Virginia-Oklahoma (wrong)
Duke-North Carolina
Colorado-Stanford
Iowa State-Kansas State
Wisconsin-Ohio State
Clemson-Notre Dame (wrong)

Games with one dissenter:

LSU-Auburn (dissenter was right)
Georgetown-DePaul
Kentucky-Tennessee
Dayton-St. Louis
Villanova-Seton Hall (dissenter was right)
Texas Tech-Texas
Nicholls-Sam Houston State
Oregon-Oregon State (dissenter was right)
Houston-Wichita State
Washington-Washington State (dissenter was right)

Overall results:

222 Sprouts
212 GeorgiaModerate
203 sjoyce
201 Illiniwek
196 JGibson
152 dfw, YE
98 RINO Tom
36 Sunrise
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Donerail
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« Reply #335 on: February 10, 2020, 03:57:33 PM »

Apologies for going awol for a week, been unexpectedly busy. Thanks to GA Moderate for filling in!

Week 15:

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan – 6pm – ESPNU
Monmouth @ Canisius – 6pm – ESPN3

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State – 11am – FOX
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State – 12pm – CBS
Little Rock @ UT Arlington – 2pm – ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ UTSA – 2pm
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor – 3pm – ESPN+
#25 LSU @ Alabama – 3pm – ESPN2
VCU @ Richmond – 3pm – CBSSN
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers – 3:30pm – BTN
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State – 5pm – ESPN2
#20 Houston @ SMU – 5pm – ESPNU
UNLV @ New Mexico – 5pm – CBSSN
Yale @ Penn – 5pm – ESPN+
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence – 7pm – CBSSN
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago – 7pm – ESPN2
Towson @ James Madison – 7pm
Virginia @ North Carolina – 7pm – ESPN
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine – 9pm
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State – 9pm – S1
Washington @ UCLA – 9pm
Eastern Washington @ Portland State – 9:05pm
Arizona @ Stanford – 9:30pm – PAC12
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i – 11pm – ESPN2

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota – 12pm – FS1
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #336 on: February 11, 2020, 10:44:35 AM »
« Edited: February 12, 2020, 12:05:37 AM by Illiniwek »

Week 15:

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan – 6pm – ESPNU
Monmouth @ Canisius – 6pm – ESPN3

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State – 11am – FOX
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State – 12pm – CBS
Little Rock @ UT Arlington – 2pm – ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ UTSA – 2pm
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor – 3pm – ESPN+
#25 LSU @ Alabama – 3pm – ESPN2
VCU @ Richmond – 3pm – CBSSN
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers – 3:30pm – BTN Sports are the worst.
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State – 5pm – ESPN2
#20 Houston @ SMU – 5pm – ESPNU
UNLV @ New Mexico – 5pm – CBSSN
Yale @ Penn – 5pm – ESPN+
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence – 7pm – CBSSN
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago – 7pm – ESPN2
Towson @ James Madison – 7pm
Virginia @ North Carolina – 7pm – ESPN
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine – 9pm
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State – 9pm – S1
Washington @ UCLA – 9pm
Eastern Washington @ Portland State – 9:05pm
Arizona @ Stanford – 9:30pm – PAC12
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i – 11pm – ESPN2

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota – 12pm – FS1
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #337 on: February 11, 2020, 01:30:33 PM »


#22 Illinois @ Rutgers – 3:30pm – BTN Big game. Have to take care of business if we want to compete for the conference.


There's a 5-point penalty for each additional effect, so Illinois needs to win by 15.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #338 on: February 11, 2020, 08:05:20 PM »

Vandy leads Kentucky by 9 at the half.  Somebody check on Extreme.
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Green Line
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« Reply #339 on: February 11, 2020, 08:34:06 PM »

DePaul is going for a good pick in the lottery.  We'll be back once we've fired Leitao and JLP.
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #340 on: February 12, 2020, 12:03:53 AM »

Just had to watch Illinois’ season end. After storming back from down 20 in the second half, Illinois drives up the floor with 6 seconds and down 1. Our best player is about to take a shot to win the game, and blows out his knee slipping on a wet spot on the floor. Likely ACL tear.

Sports pain me.

P.s. changing my pick above to Rutgers. No way Illinois can beat Rutgers without Ayo.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #341 on: February 12, 2020, 10:09:50 AM »

Week 15:

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan – 6pm – ESPNU
Monmouth @ Canisius – 6pm – ESPN3

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State – 11am – FOX
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State – 12pm – CBS
Little Rock @ UT Arlington – 2pm – ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ UTSA – 2pm
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor – 3pm – ESPN+
#25 LSU @ Alabama – 3pm – ESPN2
VCU @ Richmond – 3pm – CBSSN
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers – 3:30pm – BTN
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State – 5pm – ESPN2 - the epic comeback team vs the epic collapse team!
#20 Houston @ SMU – 5pm – ESPNU
UNLV @ New Mexico – 5pm – CBSSN
Yale @ Penn – 5pm – ESPN+
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence – 7pm – CBSSN
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago – 7pm – ESPN2
Towson @ James Madison – 7pm
Virginia @ North Carolina – 7pm – ESPN
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine – 9pm
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State – 9pm – S1
Washington @ UCLA – 9pm
Eastern Washington @ Portland State – 9:05pm
Arizona @ Stanford – 9:30pm – PAC12
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i – 11pm – ESPN2

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota – 12pm – FS1
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #342 on: February 12, 2020, 12:51:55 PM »

Just had to watch Illinois’ season end. After storming back from down 20 in the second half, Illinois drives up the floor with 6 seconds and down 1. Our best player is about to take a shot to win the game, and blows out his knee slipping on a wet spot on the floor. Likely ACL tear.

Sports pain me.

P.s. changing my pick above to Rutgers. No way Illinois can beat Rutgers without Ayo.

That ending took a LOT out of me last night.  Sports can be cruel.  Praying for Ayo; that kid has such a bright future. Sad
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #343 on: February 12, 2020, 07:49:08 PM »

Just had to watch Illinois’ season end. After storming back from down 20 in the second half, Illinois drives up the floor with 6 seconds and down 1. Our best player is about to take a shot to win the game, and blows out his knee slipping on a wet spot on the floor. Likely ACL tear.

Sports pain me.

P.s. changing my pick above to Rutgers. No way Illinois can beat Rutgers without Ayo.

That ending took a LOT out of me last night.  Sports can be cruel.  Praying for Ayo; that kid has such a bright future. Sad

MRI came back with no structural/ligament damage. Ayo dodged a bullet there.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #344 on: February 12, 2020, 08:55:50 PM »

Creighton won at Seton Hall.  The Big East has just been crazy this year.
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YE
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« Reply #345 on: February 13, 2020, 11:43:14 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2020, 01:00:18 PM by YE »

Akron
Canisius

Ohio State
Texas Tech
Arkansas Little Rock
UTSA
West Virginia
LSU
Richmond
Rutgers
Maryland
SMU
New Mexico
Yale
Seton Hall
Northern Iowa
Towson
Virginia
Gonzaga
Colorado
Washington
Portland State
Arizona
UC Irvine

Minnesota
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #346 on: February 13, 2020, 12:26:41 PM »

Akron
Canisius

Ohio State
Texas Tech
Arkansas Little Rock
UTSA
West Virginia
LSU
Richmond
Rutgers
Maryland
SMU
New Mexico
Yale
Seton Hall
Northern Iowa
Towson
Virginia
Gonzaga
Colorado
Washington
Portland State
Arizona
Eastern Washington

Minnesota

You've got both teams in Portland State-E. Washington listed (and neither from UCI-Hawaii).
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YE
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« Reply #347 on: February 13, 2020, 01:00:35 PM »

Fixed, thanks.
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JGibson
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« Reply #348 on: February 13, 2020, 04:31:35 PM »

Week 15:

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan – 6pm – ESPNU
Monmouth @ Canisius – 6pm – ESPN3

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State – 11am – FOX
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State – 12pm – CBS
Little Rock @ UT Arlington – 2pm – ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ UTSA – 2pm
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor – 3pm – ESPN+
#25 LSU @ Alabama – 3pm – ESPN2
VCU @ Richmond – 3pm – CBSSN
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers – 3:30pm – BTN
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State – 5pm – ESPN2
#20 Houston @ SMU – 5pm – ESPNU
UNLV @ New Mexico – 5pm – CBSSN
Yale @ Penn – 5pm – ESPN+
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence – 7pm – CBSSN
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago – 7pm – ESPN2
Towson @ James Madison – 7pm
Virginia @ North Carolina – 7pm – ESPN
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine – 9pm
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State – 9pm – S1
Washington @ UCLA – 9pm
Eastern Washington @ Portland State – 9:05pm
Arizona @ Stanford – 9:30pm – PAC12
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i – 11pm – ESPN2

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota – 12pm – FS1
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« Reply #349 on: February 14, 2020, 11:17:56 AM »

Week 15:

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan
Monmouth @ Canisius

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
Little Rock @ UT Arlington
Western Kentucky @ UTSA
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor
#25 LSU @ Alabama
VCU @ Richmond
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State
#20 Houston @ SMU
UNLV @ New Mexico
Yale @ Penn
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago
Towson @ James Madison
Virginia @ North Carolina
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State
Washington @ UCLA
Eastern Washington @ Portland State
Arizona @ Stanford
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota
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