2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Georgetown won today on the road at Butler without either of their only two half decent players (Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven). I believe that means that they only had five healthy scholarship players since four players left the school earlier this year.

Butler too was playing without their Point Guard, but they have been playing without him for some time and managed to pull off a few wins in spite of that since he is more of a game manager.

Georgetown moves in for now almost as soon as I pre-emptively removed them from my watch list. However, the path ahead is extremely daunting.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Providence (14-12) barely holds off #10 Seton Hall (18-7). As it currently stands, the Friars are about the sixth team out again. (Yes, the analytics did have them losing to St. John's and tied with Seton Hall so not totally unexpected results in spite of the wild swings). The biggest obstacle in the way of their fate is a trip to the nation's capital on Wednesday for a date with Georgetown (now second to last team in), where they are three point underdogs. Providence took Round 1 by a score of 76-60 to kick off the conference slate when Georgetown was without Mac McClung. Yurtseven will probably be back for Georgetown, but Mac McClung seems genuinely questionable again.

If Providence can supplant the Hoyas, the path ahead includes three reasonable home games. How much do the five seniors want it? Alpha Diallo showed just how much he did tonight.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I did get to finish the night with a pair of unique delights: Bill Walton calling a UCLA game (he made bear noises at one point)

The moose noises were extremely disturbing too

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Despite a lot of success from bubble teams this week, I don't think anyone solidified their positioning just yet. I have marked 34 locks (similar to Lunardi's definition of >80% certainty given that St. Mary's has a 10% chance to loser next week plus face a lot chaos), so I will continue with my 'Last 12 In' format while watching out for five potential bid stealers.

Safe for now:
#45 Oklahoma - They are underdogs in both games next week including at suddenly hot Oklahoma State. It's possible they lose the next four. Hosting Texas Tech on February 25 with revenge on the mind will determine just how much of a nailbiter this becomes.
#32 Rhode Island - Slight underdog at suddenly hot Davidson on Saturday, but they have a week to get ready to clear the biggest remaining hurdle
(#39 Northern Iowa - One tough road trip to Indiana State to clear on Thursday night but they are very close to 'safe')
#57 Indiana - I continue to have them higher than anyone based on existing resume, but today's blowout loss gives me no illusions. I still think they close 1-5 and find themselves in the NIT.
#41 Xavier - Continue to be carried by the best Q1 win (@SHU) plus a stellar Q2 record compared to other teams in this territory. They need to finish 3-3 but are underdogs at St. John's this week before being favored against Villanova. Either will give them a second Q1 win (because DePaul will no longer be one soon)

Last Four Byes
#36 Florida - Like Xavier but with a more dire Q2 record still, but they too need to close 3-3 against a very tough schedule to feel comfortable. The easiest comes first vs. Arkansas on Tuesday before the first of two Kentucky games.
#51 Arizona State - Re-evaluating them upward on the strength of the best bubble home win and lack of bad losses. They will probably be fine if they lose to Oregon this week despite being a slight favorite. The So Cal road trip remains the only serious danger where they will be underdogs in both games.
#50 Wichita State - First of three Q1 road games comes in Cincinnati on Saturday. They really just need one (unless chaos occurs), and this is the most difficult one. A win here strengthens the case to avoid the First Four with a marquee win (only tournament team beaten is Oklahoma at home though this may not change that).
#55 Virginia - The Hoos travel to Pittsburgh for the first and easiest of three road games where they are favored by a single point. They will need to take two to really even think about the field, but the luckiest team keeps getting luckier. That might put them in Dayton.

Last Four In
#46 Georgetown - Other losers have bumped them up to fourth to last team in thanks to their five Q1 wins (only two really good ones), and Torvik agrees! Start the week favored vs. Providence before traveling to Chicago hoping to avoid victim to DePaul. Winning both leaves them in solid position though I really think they need another Q1-A win at Creighton or Marquette much more than both of these games.
#49 USC - Lunardi's USC obsession on the strength of Q2 record makes no sense to me. LSU and Stanford wins are losing shine. Washington and Oregon State are falling apart. I'd say they need to finish 3-2, but one of those three wins may just need to be at Colorado this Thursday (19%) chance or Arizona the following week. Home vs. Arizona State doesn't make the resume sexier.
(#43 ETSU - A road win at LSU without the dearth of Q1 losses that USC has will be still enough to keep the resume in the discussion, but there is one more bad loss than USC. The Buccs may finally take the division lead from Furman on Wednesday.)
#42 Utah State - The NET ranking keeps inflating with wins. Our third straight bubble team carried by an LSU win. Most metrics love them and they will need to put a hurt on Wyoming this week. Only New Mexico could conceivably knock them out in 13 days. The middling resume will sit in purgatory to see if others steal bids.
#48 Cincinnati - I relent...for now. Looking to go to 7-0 in Q2 games on Saturday against Wichita. But they will deservedly continue to sweat even with a win.

First Four Out
#35 Alabama - I really think bracketologists need to give this resume another look thanks to yet another bubble team beating LSU. The remaining schedule is bare so they may need 5-1 to overtake someone, which is doable. But the toughest - a road trip to Starkville at the end of the month needs to be in the win column
#47 Richmond - The toughest opponent has been cleared and avenged this week. They definitely need at least 5-1 with a very tough road trip in tow to face the Bonnies on Saturday.
#52 Mississippi State - Another team that likely needs to go to 5-1 though 4-2 could cut it close! Four-point favorites in both games this week. They will continue to be repeated 'slight favorites' and the luck seems destined to run out.
#40 Minnesota - Down to .500 after losing a game they desperately needed. A 3-3 finish is most likely, but I'm not even sure 4-2 gets them in. The resume would be no different than Indiana's.

Next Four Out:
#37 Stanford - Winning the three remaining February games will be enough to keep them in the discussion, but they will subsequently need to take two of three very tough March games. Not looking good.
#62 Providence - The NET rank took a hit this week despite a Q1-A win. They now have four of those marquee wins to counter their four bad losses. Need to close 4-1. Two Q1 games await this week @Georgetown and Marquette where they look to finish the season sweep against both. One keeps them in the conversation, but both would put them in prime positioning.
#61 NC State - Best pure Q1 record on the bubble, but the Q2 record is not good, and they have bad losses. They are still alive because they have two Q1-A home opportunities this week, but they may take a third Q3 loss before the end of the day. Don't expect to see them next week.
#44 Arkansas - How far they have fallen and so quick, but there is not really a win to write home about on this resume as Indiana continues to falter. Winning in Tuscaloosa was not enough. I think this is another team dependent upon a 5-1 finish, which probably requires a good performance in Gainesville on Tuesday.

Still alive?: #63 Tennessee (1-8 vs. Q1! Suspect they will barely stick around for a while due to the big final week opponents); #53 VCU (Probably done without a sweep this week of Dayton/@Saint Louis. Another resume of just LSU but significantly worse than the others); #60 Memphis (Another lost opportunity today!); #54 UNC Greensboro (Metrics remain overwhelmingly mediocre); #64 South Carolina (Like Providence but the SEC does not afford any Q1-A win opportunities); #66 SMU (Finally a good win but a little too late)


Indiana and USC are probably going to fall out in favor of Richmond and potentially the Alabama/Mississippi State winner. Georgetown is also a likely candidate to fall out while Virginia and Oklahoma have difficult paths and one will likely lose a couple. I don't have obvious candidates to replace them since all other currently out teams need to finish perfectly. My best bet is a bid stealer (American/MVC/SoCon/UCLA/A-10) could take the place of one or both of them rather than Cincinnati's spot. Minnesota/Providence/Stanford/Arkansas could also make a crazy run though!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I was definitely pre-emptive in calling Purdue an 80 percent lock. It was probably more like 70 percent and with today's third consecutive loss, they are now under 50 percent. On the bright side they have three winnable home games. You get the feeling that this Saturday vs. Michigan will dictate if they need a Big Ten tournament win (over a contender).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I took UCF +500 live betting. That was the most exhausting finish I could have endured.

I ran the simulator earlier to see just how many Cincinnati needed to win, and the answer was 3-2. With both Wichita and Houston still remaining, this is an absolutely dreadful result for them as it could have nearly clinched (but probably deserved). Four Q3 losses and 2-5 Q1 record

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Week 15:

Friday, February 21st
Penn @ Dartmouth
VCU @ Saint Louis - It's SAINT Louis, please. It's not stylized Loyola (CHI). It's not stylized N. Iowa. Show some respect for Louis IX - Please!

Saturday, February 22nd
#3 Kansas @ #1 Baylor
#19 Marquette @ Providence
#22 Houston @ Memphis
Michigan @ Purdue
#12 Villanova @ Xavier
Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State
#8 FSU @ NC State
Oklahoma @ OK State
Rhode Island @ Davidson
Florida @ #10 Kentucky
Hofstra @ Delaware - This conference tournament is going to be thrilling!
LSU @ South Carolina
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Alabama @ Mississippi
#14 Oregon @ #24 Arizona
Georgetown @ DePaul
#2 Gonzaga @ #23 BYU

Sunday, February 23rd
#9 Penn State @ Indiana
Wichita State @ Cincinnati
Rutgers @ Wisconsin
#7 Maryland @ Ohio State
#21 Butler @ #15 Creighton
USC @ Utah

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Providence was preseason #22 on Torvik and has worked their way back from #96 on December 20 to #35 now. If you only include games since December 20, they are #18 (almost exactly tied with Big Ten champion Maryland).

I had been hyping Maryland as my sleeper for the title behind Zaga/Kansas, but I really think Creighton may need more love in spite of mediocre defense. In this same timeframe, their offense has powered them to #6!!!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

After thinking the bubble was stronger than the past couple years, it is now looking equally hideous.

Oklahoma, URI, Cincinnati, Stanford - pick your two teams that probably don't belong anyway. Maybe ETSU will let a bid be stolen.

Purdue, Mississippi State, and Georgetown (and South Carolina?) proved yesterday that they don't belong so UCLA may be the next most viable choice. I see banter that they may only need to win two of three given the teams. Unreal. Great coaching job, Mick Cronin. Coach circles around Sean Miller again next week!

I don't know what I'll do if USC loses today. Indiana and Xavier also don't have particularly kind remaining schedules, but they are 11th and 8th to last teams in. Someone's going to have to actively unseat them while the mid-majors at the cut line can't have yet another slip up.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Sprouts, do you think Memphis has any shot at an at-large bid at this point?

Easily with Houston the schedule and the lack of quality teams. I  put them 8th out this morning in the same area as SC/Bama/Ark but behind teams with quality wins that will surely falter down the stretch. There's so little gap in every resume after Stanford.

The problem is that they are dogs in three of the remaining four including by 9.5 at Houston. If they beat Wichita twice and win at SMU it will be extremely close but lean out. The game in Houston matters a ton.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I already had Creighton on the 2 seed line to start the day, but they were in the same tier at Hall, FSU, Nova and Louisville. No longer. This massacre is enough to convince me they belong in the Duke and Dayton tier (and likely much better than either of those teams).

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Friday, February 28th
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky – 6pm — ESPNU - I think Wright State will win but no risk homer pick!
Texas State @ UT-Arlington – 8pm — ESPN2 - WHERE DID TEXAS STATE COME FROM

Saturday, February 29th
#9 Penn State @ #20 Iowa – 11am – BTN
#8 Florida State @ Clemson – 1pm – ACCNX
Florida @ Tennessee – 1pm
Akron @ Buffalo – 1pm – ESPN3
#16 Seton Hall @ #19 Marquette – 1:30pm – FOX
Oklahoma @ #17 West Virginia – 3pm – ESPN2
Notre Dame @ Wake – 3pm – ACCNX - Childress had me tearing up. Want Wake to be over .500 like nothing else!
UNC-Greensboro @ Chattanooga – 3:30pm – ESPN+
#6 Duke @ Virginia – 5pm – ESPN
Penn @ Brown – 5pm – ESPN+
Arkansas @ Georgia – 5pm – SECN
Loyola @ Bradley – 6pm – ESPN3
#4 San Diego State @ Nevada – 7pm
Michigan State @ #7 Maryland – 7pm – ESPN
South Carolina @ Alabama – 7:30pm – SECN
Saint Mary’s @ #2 Gonzaga – 9pm

Sunday, March 1st
#15 Creighton @ St. John’s – 11am – FS1
Xavier @ Georgetown – 1pm – CBS - No faith in Georgetown's health but very scary game here!
Saint Louis @ Rhode Island – 1pm – ESPNU
Michigan @ #25 Ohio State – 3pm – CBS
Wichita State @ SMU – 3pm – ESPNU
#18 Colorado @ Stanford – 5pm – ESPNU

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I am completely dumbfounded how either Miller brother continues to hold a top 15 coaching job, especially Sean. Just a complete and total waste of player talent (well, talent he purchased) that is ruined by awful coaching yet again. Stone Gettings' transfer year wasted. Zeke's year is wasted. Nico Mannion had a chance to go to so many better programs. His Xavier teams were some of my favorites but I was such a naive child then. Arizona can and must do much better.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I'll see what ER comes up with and may share my bubble after. The Top 4 seed chaos is even more demotivating because we thought we had it all figured out. Can't wait to see what Warren Nolan shows when it loads properly. We all did turrible this week.

Maryland somehow still remains a 2 seed even though they have long been almost assured of blowing a 3 game conference lead for a week and a half now. I don't know if this can possibly last.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

St. John's making a late push for the NIT by shooting 70% from 3 to extend their lead to 20 over Creighton. This game is at Carnesecca not MSG (and 95 year old Luigi Carnesecca is attendance). It's a 12 foot drop to storm the court from the student risers, which would be even crazier than the court in Provo. I can't imagine that is remotely possible but I'm hoping for it. If I were a student I would try! Some AAC hack was ragging on UConn for having to play St. John's next year, but I think LJ Figueroa as a senior will be better than Shamorie Ponds and that Mike Anderson's first recruiting class will have this team back very quickly and likely a top contender in the Big East.

Back to this season, they will be favored here against Marquette too in a what will be a senior day to remember.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

One of my favourite matters to track this week - especially as part of St. Francis (Brooklyn)'s diehard Terrier fanbase - is that of that longest NCAA Tournament droughts. This week there is a rather decent probability that the Forgotten Four become the Tortured Three (The Terriers would only be joined by military academies ).

William & Mary is the 2-seed in the Colonial bracket, and they drew just about the weakest 3-seed imaginable (avoiding Charleston and Delaware in favor of Towson). This will be their 82nd chance to qualify for the NCAA Tournament, and they hope to finally break the curse. Good luck to the Tribe! I track droughts exceeding 15 years, and the #1 seed in this bracket is Hofstra. Despite last year being terrific for Hofstra, they failed to win the Colonial Tournament meaning they have missed 18 consecutive NCAA Tournaments. This was supposed to be the rebuild year, so it would be nice vengeance for the remaining players to end this streak short of 20! (e: KenPom does not like W&M's chances and loves Northeastern as the 6-seed! 12.6% chance for the Tribe. 29.6% chance for Hofstra.)

Of course this season's darling is Rutgers, who last made the tournament 29 years ago. But they share the distinction of 34th longest drought with three others who standing a fighting chance. Towson, the 3 seed from the aforementioned Colonial would also be a streakbreaker, but I am most optimistic for #2 St. Francis (PA) who per KenPom is a slight favourite in the NEC despite having a potential road championship game against their neighbor to look forward to. The final member of the classic 1991 tournament is Louisiana Tech, who is likely to be the 3 seed in Conference-USA. However, they have an uphill battle having lost to the 2-seed twice already.

Some other teams positioned to break the streak are:
Bowling Green - They have the third longest drought among teams who have once tasted the joys of March - way back in 1968 (tell us about it, GM - they lost to the team that lost to the team that lost to the team that lost to the team that won the national title so I'm sure it was a memorable game )! Akron may be most beloved in the NET, but Bowling Green may just wind up as the 1-seed in the MAC Tournament with a week to go.
Furman - the drought may hit 40 years as they are once again the 2-seed in a super strong SoCon but have proven to be every bit ETSU's equal throughout the season. I watched Round 2 between these foes, and I hope we get a Round 3 in the SoCon title. If they lose this year, I don't think it will last much longer with a very dedicated Athletics Department.

There are about eight teams looking for their first bid who are the 3 seed or 4 seed in their conference, but most seem rather unlikely candidates. The only "returning" team from this range would be Duquesne from the Class of 1977 who had a nice season but has way too much competition. I think someone like Saint Louis could beat Dayton; but Duquesne sounds like a gift for UD.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Just want to give some recognition to Buzz Williams - never a coach I loved because he abandoned an historic school in the Big East for an ACC doormat. I thought he merely carried on thanks to Tom Crean's coattails for the Golden Eagles, but I couldn't be further off. The sweet spot of the third to fifth years coaching Virginia Tech led to back-to-back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances at a place with no basketball culture. And yet he elects to leave that for an even more ambitious project - an SEC school without a Final Four appearance yet a rather grand budget. He started off the non-conference schedule with a P6 team rated in the analytics outside the top 300 and on pace to be the worst power team of all-time. He transformed this lackluster team to a team that could comfortably win on the road against a top 25 team. This may be the coach that eventually brings a Final Four banner to College Station.

Now, I don't have much respect for this incarnation of Auburn, but I hope this home loss confirms them for the last 6/top 7 seed that their analytics say they deserve rather than the 4/5 the media keeps trying to give them. - Butler on the other hand with all three injured starters looking healthy tonight should be back in the top 5 seed discussion once again. The defense is back.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Myles Powell's senior night may be one of those classic games between two giants that define this era of the New Big East. What a slugfest between two of the nation's most elite teams - one the titan of the last decade that sets the bar and one the more talented team trying to shed its painful history, change the guard atop of the conference, and avenge a few close calls against that giant in the 2017 and 2019 Big East Tournaments.

This is definitely up there with the 2018 overtime thriller for the title in Madison Square Garden where Ed Cooley split his pants. The teams are more evenly matched here. If the Pirates fall to Creighton and miss their chance at an outright title, it will greatly impact how we remember it as a missed opportunity as perhaps one of the games with the most bragging rights associated with it.

I really hope Myles Powell makes the most of his chance in the Big Dance and may we not run into him again too soon!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

WHAT - A - FINISH! WOW!

It just means more!

Georgetown is no longer our top rivalry game. Really blessed that we just get to maul them and have so many iconic games against our nearby neighbor.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Friday, March 6
Buffalo @ Bowling Green State
Richmond @ Duquesne
#6 Missouri State vs. #3 Indiana State

Saturday, March 7
#14 Villanova @ Georgetown
#24 Wisconsin @ Indiana
Marquette @ St. John’s
#4 Baylor @ West Virginia
#6 Kentucky @ Florida
#1 Kansas @ Texas Tech
#8 Seton Hall @ #11 Creighton
#5 Western Carolina vs. #4 Mercer
Alabama @ Missouri
UCLA @ USC
#10 Louisville @ #22 Virginia - The luck just doesn't run out
North Carolina @ #12 Duke
Yale @ Harvard
SMU @ South Florida
Western Kentucky @ Florida International
Butler @ Xavier
Stanford @ #13 Oregon

Sunday, March 8
#25 Michigan @ #9 Maryland
#19 Ohio State @ #16 Michigan State
#18 Iowa @ #23 Illinois
#4 Nebraska-Omaha vs #5 Oral Roberts
#6 Northeastern vs. #3 Towson

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I was really dreaming of a Bradley-Loyola final. Sad, but go Braves!

I still feel really strongly that UConn is among the best teams in the American and deserves to be at least co-favourites, but their fans seem a bit delusional about their hot streak by counting wins over USF and ECU and ignoring losses to Temple because OT. Bouknight has legitimately come on strong as a freshman though.

The A-10 is also a place where people anticipate havoc. Saint Louis as the 4 seed is a popular pick to cause match-up problems for Dayton. Davidson was hot until they got manhandled by Richmond, who could be their opponent in the 2-7 game. I also love this Bonnies team, but I don't see them stopping Dayton if they get past Saint Louis - they are young, so next year will be their time. Richmond over Saint Louis would be my pick.

C-USA, CAA and Sun Belt are also probably some of the ones I am seriously looking out for a handful of 4 or lower seeds though that's not necessarily uncommon. For a shock, maybe the Big West. Irvine has been merely ok against a bunch of very mediocre teams so I would't be shocked if they slip up

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Review of Preseason Polls time! Some of the worst picks singled out.

American: 1A. Houston 1B. Memphis 3. Cincinnati 4. Wichita State 5. USF 6. UConn 7. Temple 8. SMU 9. UCF 10. Tulsa 11. ECU 12. Tulane - Three very serious Final Four contenders and a highly thought of team returning to prominence in Wichita. Each of the next three will have their chances to make their case, but I think this will ultimately be top-heavy.

TULSA got no respect! In such a weak conference. The most unlikely of champions! The analytics still like Houston; Memphis was harmed by eligibility. Cincinnati's coaching change went far from seamlessly early on.

Atlantic 10: 1. VCU 2. Davidson 3. Dayton 4. Rhode Island 5. St. Bonnies 6. Richmond 7. Saint Louis 8. Duquesne 9. George Mason 10. La Salle 11. UMass 12. George Washington 13. St. Joseph's 14. Fordham

VCU LOL. Davidson playing to their true potential all season long would probably make this look OK, but they are predicting results not final talent. Move those two behind Duquesne, and we wouldn't feel like idiots.

ACC: 1. Duke 2. UNC 3. Louisville 4. Virginia 5. Florida State 6. NC State 7. Notre Dame 8. Syracuse 9. Miami 10. Pitt 11. Clemson 12. Georgia Tech 13. Boston College 14. Virginia Tech 15. Wake Forest - Three very serious national title contenders and two ol' reliable teams. The depth of this conference will rely on the next three because the expectations are very low for the bottom half. I am glad the media is hyping Notre Dame's return, but I definitely have some question marks there.

UNC is going to be dead last, which is public knowledge. But just as bad is Georgia Tech pulling out a sneaky fifth place finish despite being ineligible for postseason play and picked 12th. Just Pastner's luck...

Big East: 1. Seton Hall 2. Villanova 3. Xavier 4. Marquette 5. Providence 6. Georgetown 7. Creighton 8. Butler 9. St. John's 10. DePaul - Seven contenders hope to get at least six bids and perhaps some wins to improve on last year's epic disappointments.

It's not an awful pick because the conference just wound up being much better than expected, but Creighton in 7th and potentially winning the conference today (or at least third place) is a big miss. Butler is also a miss given that they are fighting for a four seed in the NCAA Tournament but as not far off from the final conference placement.

Big Ten: 1. Michigan State 2. Maryland 3. Ohio State 4. Purdue 5. Michigan 6. Wisconsin 7. Illinois 8. Iowa 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. Minnesota 12. Rutgers 13. Nebraska 14. Northwestern - My spring forecast flipped Minnesota and Wisconsin - I know Wisconsin tends to find hidden gems, but the loss of Happ is enormous - and slotted Iowa four slots higher. I pegged it as an eight bid league at the time, which feels slightly high. I think Illinois can get it done. I am less certain that Penn State is capable should the Illini fail.

Purdue is really the worst you can fault here if they finish 10th by losing to Rutgers today. We expected the conference to be deep, and it was deeper than ever thought possible. I am more embarrassed by my own preseason love for Minnesota and failing to believe in co-champion Wisconsin. So bundled that the coaches picks are largely right.

Colonial: 1. Hofstra 2. Charleston 3. Northeastern 4. James Madison 5. Delaware - Hofstra loses their star and plays perhaps too light a schedule. Every game is winnable including UCLA, but I think everyone will take multiple lumps in conference play to prevent an at-large. I see a new winner this year.

I can't fault them given the depth, but leaving Wiliam & Mary out of the top five looks rough in hindsight when JAMES MADISON (2-16) got included. I will accept my accolades on UCLA being ripe for Hofstra's picking, but I deny that I ever said a new (regular season) champion would arise this season.

C-USA: 1. WKU 2. UTSA 3. Louisiana Tech 4A. UTEP 4B. Old Dominion 6. UAB ---- UTEP returns?! KenPom loves them too. I've awaited this for so long! But the story will be if WKU can compete with higher rated Cincinnati, Arkansas, Belmont and URI in order to build a bubbly resume.

I will not criticize the UTEP pick given that there were chemistry and discipline issues that prevented greatness, but they are tied for 10th with UTSA, which I never understood! North Texas wound up being the good Texas team!! (At least they knew Rice would be bad.) Charlotte also shocked us by being back ahead of schedule.

MAAC: 1. Iona 2. Rider 3. Quinnipiac 4. Monmouth 5. Manhattan 6. Siena - Really hoping this will be Baker Dunleavy's breakout season at QU! He is surrounded by all the traditional powers (save Niagara) plus recent breakout program, Rider though the coaches see this as a two horse race.

No respect for ultimate champion Siena and even less respect for St. Peter's who finished a close second. Iona was down in sixth. They picked the wrong traditional programs in first and sixth!

MVC: 1. Missouri State 2. Bradley 3. UNI 4. Loyola (IL) - The Ramblers did bring in a nationally ranked recruiting class but will be very young.

Naturally Missouri State, the sixth seed, will probably be in the MVC championship. I think they are talented but just underperformed and that the other three are clearly the cream of the crop.

Patriot: 1. Colgate 2. Bucknell 3. American - Second place may be the most interesting race to watch. Colgate got a national AP vote, and it wasn't an accident!!

Bucknell was awful finishing seventh but naturally beat American to reach the PL Semifinals. Watch them reach the finale....

Pac-12: 1. Oregon 2. Colorado 3. Washington 4. Arizona 5. USC 6. Arizona State 7. Oregon State 8. UCLA 9. Utah 10. Stanford 11. Washington State 12. Cal - Has the turnaround year finally arrived?! The hype says the same thing as I said for the Big 12 - Seven contenders fighting for about five bids though I remain slightly skeptical of Colorado's miraculous growth this quickly.

UCLA, picked eight, goes for the conference title tonight. No criticizing Washington due to the ineligibility of Quade Green. Was expecting Arizona to be an underperformer but they came out right on target. Stanford barely overperformed (similar to Oklahoma).

Southland: 1. New Orleans 2. Sam Houston State 3. Abilene Christian 4. Stephen F. Austin

Perhaps the worst conference pick of all is...drumroll please... New Orleans which enters the day tied for 12th!!!!! Nicholls eventually joined the others in the top four and Stephen F. Austin ran away with it.

Sun Belt: 1. South Alabama 2. Georgia Southern 3. Texas-Arlington (average of three media polls)

South Alabama was a really good pick, but a complete WHIFF on Little Rock which was largely picked 11th/12th. This surpasses Tulsa for the most impressive overperformance and may even surpass New Orleans for most spectacular overall miss as well.


Fewer complaints on the below conferences:

America East: 1. Vermont 2. UMBC 3. Stony Brook 4. Albany - Vermont is a heavy favourite but is not expected to compete for an at-large.

A-Sun: 1. Liberty 2. North Florida 3. Florida Gulf Coast

Big Sky (Coaches): 1. EWU 2. Montana 3. Weber State - The media picked EWU third.

Big 12: 1. Kansas 2. Baylor 3. Texas Tech 4. Texas 5. West Virginia 6. Oklahoma State 7. Iowa State 8. Oklahoma 9. Kansas State 10. TCU - not my expertise, but is it possible to be underrated Chris Beard still? Baylor has a bit to replace. Top seven could all contend, but likely down to a five bid year.

Big West: 1. UC-Irvine 2. UC-Santa Barbara 3. Cal State-Northridge 4. Hawaii

Horizon: 1. Wright State 2. NKU 3. UIC 4. Oakland 5. Green Bay

Ivy: 1. Harvard 2. Penn 3. Yale 4. Princeton - I think they got this right, and I don't think #1 will be particularly close - the Orlando Invitational will be fun to compete against other bubble teams, but I don't think Harvard will leave any doubt. Watch out for Gabe Stefanini and Columbia who could stealthily push for second/third and a coveted spot in Ivy Madness in Cambridge.

MEAC: 1. NC Central 2. Bethune-Cookman 3A. Norfolk State 3B. North Carolina A+T - one of the closest votes!

MWC: 1. Utah State 2. San Diego State 3. New Mexico 4. Nevada 5. Boise State - While most feel Utah State is solidly in, SDSU and New Mexico could spend all season long on the bubble if the hype is actually for real this time. Nevada could fight for a spot but nearly fell behind Boise in the poll, so expectations do not involve a return to the Big Dance.

NEC: 1. LIU-Brooklyn 2. Sacred Heart 3. St. Francis (PA) - RMU picked fifth. You could almost reverse the order of these teams!

OVC: 1. Belmont 2. Murray State 3. Jacksonville State 4. Austin Peay 5. UT-Martin - Belmont had a bit of trouble scheduling tough this year but has road trips to BC, Alabama, Saint Louis and WKU plus their home and home with Lipscomb, but this team is every bit as legit as last year's team. Murray and JSU will certainly continue giving them fits so put them on bubble watch immediately!

SEC: 1. Kentucky 2. Florida 3. LSU 4. Auburn 5. Tennessee 6. Alabama 7. Mississippi State 8. Ole Miss 9. Georgia 10. South Carolina 11. Arkansas 12. Texas A&M 13. Mizzou 14. Vanderbilt - The SEC is so deep that no team would truly surprise me by making the Tournament, and they may push for 8 bids. Isn't Georgia criminally underrated though? No respect for Tom Crean!

SoCon: 1. ETSU 2. UNC-Greensboro 3. Furman 4. Wofford

SWAC: 1. Prairie View A&M 2. Texas Southern 3. Grambling State 4. Alabama State

Summit: 1. North Dakota State 2. South Dakota 3. Oral Roberts 4. Omaha 5. South Dakota State

WCC: 1. Gonzaga 2. St. Mary's 3. BYU 4. Pepperdine 5. Santa Clara - I think we all know how this conference goes by now

WAC: 1. New Mexico State 2. Grand Canyon 3. Seattle

I will defend my Columbia (1-13) comment by saying that Gabe Stefanini had a season ending injury before the season even began. Yes, one player made that much difference Mike Smith couldn't do it alone.

I have no excuse for criticizing the media for having Georgia too low. I will never bet on Tom Crean again. Anthony Edwards was great fun to watch.

This is all in jest, and I do think the coaches did better than me, but more reason to let the games be played.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

There has been no one in the history of Ivy League basketball treated more unfairly the AJ Brodeur, who will go down as one of the greats. We can only hope he rightfully is awarded Ivy Player of the Year (last year's award was a farce). It's a close three horse race with Paul Atkinson as the frontunner because of who he plays for. But no one's impact is as great as Brodeur who run the whole inside-out offense from down-low. Mike Smith from Columbia is valuable and gets pity votes because his stats are harmed due to what he is surrounded with, but I think he will be third.

Fun Fact: Jim Boeheim's son Jimmy has a very strong chance to make first team All Ivy right behind this trio. Syracuse fans were furious that Buddy did not even receive votes for third team all ACC, and I think they have a point. Good chance he will get there next year.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hofstra avenges Northeastern and breaks the 19 year drought which is looking like it may be one of the longest droughts ended this season via auto-bid.

The Hartford Hawks have never been to the NCAA Tournament. For just the second time in their 33 year history, they will advance to the conference title game after defeating Stony Brook. In 2008, they were defeated by UMBC in a battle between bidless teams. In 2020, they will have to dethrone Vemont, the king of the conference.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Thank you, YE. If you have ever transgressed against me, that is now forgiven because this is the news I have been waiting for my entire life (well since the Highlanders went D1). What a perfect fit! This is even more interesting given the recent news of the Atlantic Sun looking to have its members form a new conference while leaving the shell of the Atlantic Sun for other random deep south teams. I think NJIT was an important part of that announcement since it required seven teams who have played together for so many seasons. Now that dream may be dead.

Of course, the move of FAMU from the MEAC to the SWAC was just as monumental. The MEAC is left with just Bethune-Cookman and NC Central as its powerhouse teams (who might be able and, for BCC, eager to join their old rivals in the SWAC and Big South, respectively), South Carolina State* and Howard (who have enough status to latch on somewhere) and five complete retreads who are actually geographically close but cannot be a conference on their own.

Norfolk State has the most memorable success of those five basketball programs (Coppin State also pulled off a much less memorable 2-15 long ago), but there is a strong possibility of their demise after so much hope of a budding rivalry with Hampton I really hope they do not drop down to D2 CIAA because they are homeless, but this looks like a very possible scenario. Definitely a fan of what NSU built.

Delaware State, Coppin State, UMES and Morgan State have largely been terrible (except a couple one-off years for Morgan State in football), and I would not be surprised if they drop to D2. The CIAA is actually a pretty good fit for most of them.

As they are all publics, there was some discussion of them joining up with the America East as well. A "Southern" division with UMBC, Stony Brook and now NJIT would limit the number of trips up to Maine and Vermont. But the two football programs are nowhere near good enough to compete in the Colonial with Maine, SBU, UNH and Albany and might have to be cancelled. Even then, the basketball programs are barely good enough to absorb all at once and with struggling finances, I'm not sure those programs would be long for this world in an arrangement no better than the status quo when the CIAA is calling with fewer sports requirements and less travel. Delaware State is financially the healthiest so NEC might have interest. Coppin State with the worst financial state and no football to offer looks to be worst positioned.

Keep your eyes on the MEAC and Atlantic Sun! Lots of news is sure to come.

*While South Carolina State has been a successful athletic program and is capable of competing with most other conferences, their financial state is rather dire as well, and the CIAA is a very logical geographic fit. They could make a willing choice to move down.