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  2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread
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Author Topic: 2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread  (Read 11229 times)
YE
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« Reply #350 on: February 13, 2020, 01:00:35 pm »

Fixed, thanks.
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JGibson
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« Reply #351 on: February 13, 2020, 04:31:35 pm »

Week 15:

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan – 6pm – ESPNU
Monmouth @ Canisius – 6pm – ESPN3

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State – 11am – FOX
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State – 12pm – CBS
Little Rock @ UT Arlington – 2pm – ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ UTSA – 2pm
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor – 3pm – ESPN+
#25 LSU @ Alabama – 3pm – ESPN2
VCU @ Richmond – 3pm – CBSSN
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers – 3:30pm – BTN
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State – 5pm – ESPN2
#20 Houston @ SMU – 5pm – ESPNU
UNLV @ New Mexico – 5pm – CBSSN
Yale @ Penn – 5pm – ESPN+
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence – 7pm – CBSSN
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago – 7pm – ESPN2
Towson @ James Madison – 7pm
Virginia @ North Carolina – 7pm – ESPN
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine – 9pm
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State – 9pm – S1
Washington @ UCLA – 9pm
Eastern Washington @ Portland State – 9:05pm
Arizona @ Stanford – 9:30pm – PAC12
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i – 11pm – ESPN2

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota – 12pm – FS1
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« Reply #352 on: February 14, 2020, 11:17:56 am »

Week 15:

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan
Monmouth @ Canisius

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
Little Rock @ UT Arlington
Western Kentucky @ UTSA
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor
#25 LSU @ Alabama
VCU @ Richmond
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State
#20 Houston @ SMU
UNLV @ New Mexico
Yale @ Penn
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago
Towson @ James Madison
Virginia @ North Carolina
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State
Washington @ UCLA
Eastern Washington @ Portland State
Arizona @ Stanford
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #353 on: February 14, 2020, 11:54:26 am »

Friday, February 14th
Akron @ Central Michigan – 6pm – ESPNU
Monmouth @ Canisius – 6pm – ESPN3

Saturday, February 15th
Purdue @ Ohio State – 11am – FOX
#24 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State – 12pm – CBS
Little Rock @ UT Arlington – 2pm – ESPN+
Western Kentucky @ UTSA – 2pm
#14 West Virginia @ #1 Baylor – 3pm – ESPN+
#25 LSU @ Alabama – 3pm – ESPN2
VCU @ Richmond – 3pm – CBSSN
#22 Illinois @ Rutgers – 3:30pm – BTN
#9 Maryland @ Michigan State – 5pm – ESPN2
#20 Houston @ SMU – 5pm – ESPNU
UNLV @ New Mexico – 5pm – CBSSN
Yale @ Penn – 5pm – ESPN+
#10 Seton Hall @ Providence – 7pm – CBSSN
Northern Iowa @ Loyola Chicago – 7pm – ESPN2
Towson @ James Madison – 7pm
Virginia @ North Carolina – 7pm – ESPN
#2 Gonzaga @ Pepperdine – 9pm
#16 Colorado @ Oregon State – 9pm – S1
Washington @ UCLA – 9pm
Eastern Washington @ Portland State – 9:05pm
Arizona @ Stanford – 9:30pm – PAC12
UC Irvine @ Hawai’i – 11pm – ESPN2

Sunday, February 16th
#21 Iowa @ Minnesota – 12pm – FS1
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #354 on: February 14, 2020, 01:51:32 pm »

This is going to be an interesting week.  With five players so far, we only have two unanimous picks (Gonzaga and Texas Tech).
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #355 on: February 15, 2020, 05:23:36 pm »

Georgetown won today on the road at Butler without either of their only two half decent players (Mac McClung and Omer Yurtseven). I believe that means that they only had five healthy scholarship players since four players left the school earlier this year.

Butler too was playing without their Point Guard, but they have been playing without him for some time and managed to pull off a few wins in spite of that since he is more of a game manager.

Georgetown moves in for now almost as soon as I pre-emptively removed them from my watch list. However, the path ahead is extremely daunting.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #356 on: February 15, 2020, 10:45:53 pm »

Providence (14-12) barely holds off #10 Seton Hall (18-7). As it currently stands, the Friars are about the sixth team out again. (Yes, the analytics did have them losing to St. John's and tied with Seton Hall so not totally unexpected results in spite of the wild swings). The biggest obstacle in the way of their fate is a trip to the nation's capital on Wednesday for a date with Georgetown (now second to last team in), where they are three point underdogs. Providence took Round 1 by a score of 76-60 to kick off the conference slate when Georgetown was without Mac McClung. Yurtseven will probably be back for Georgetown, but Mac McClung seems genuinely questionable again.

If Providence can supplant the Hoyas, the path ahead includes three reasonable home games. How much do the five seniors want it? Alpha Diallo showed just how much he did tonight.
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« Reply #357 on: February 16, 2020, 02:34:19 am »

A pair of heartbreaking losses for Carolina over the past two games — D*ke won at the buzzer, UVA with 0.3 on the clock tonight, both at home. It's been a down year, but this team's been snakebit.

I did get to finish the night with a pair of unique delights: Bill Walton calling a UCLA game (he made bear noises at one point) and a CSU-Fullerton–Cal Poly game that I started watching in 2OT and finished as a 105-101 Fullerton win in quadruple overtime.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #358 on: February 16, 2020, 10:00:49 am »

I did get to finish the night with a pair of unique delights: Bill Walton calling a UCLA game (he made bear noises at one point)

The moose noises were extremely disturbing too
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #359 on: February 16, 2020, 03:14:18 pm »

WEEK 15 RESULTS

JGibson won the week, in large part due to being the sole correct picker on three games.

17 JGibson
15 Illiniwek
12 Sprouts, YE
11 GeorgiaModerate (Oregon State?  What was I thinking?)

There were only two unanimous picks:

Texas Tech-Oklahoma State (wrong)
Gonzaga-Pepperdine

Games with a single dissenter (asterisk = dissenter was right):

Akron-Central Michigan
Canisius-Monmouth (*)
Ohio State-Purdue
Western Kentucky-UTSA
Baylor-West Virginia
Richmond-VCU
Rutgers-Illinois
Houston-SMU (*)
New Mexico-UNLV (*)
Seton Hall-Providence (*)
Towson-James Madison
Colorado-Oregon State
Portland State-Eastern Washington (*)
Hawaii-UC Irvine (*)

The average score was 13.4, not one of our better weeks.

Overall standings:

234 Sprouts
223 GeorgiaModerate
216 Illiniwek
213 JGibson
203 sjoyce
164 YE
152 dfw
98 RINO Tom
36 Sunrise




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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #360 on: February 16, 2020, 07:46:34 pm »

Despite a lot of success from bubble teams this week, I don't think anyone solidified their positioning just yet. I have marked 34 locks (similar to Lunardi's definition of >80% certainty given that St. Mary's has a 10% chance to loser next week plus face a lot chaos), so I will continue with my 'Last 12 In' format while watching out for five potential bid stealers.

Safe for now:

#45 Oklahoma - They are underdogs in both games next week including at suddenly hot Oklahoma State. It's possible they lose the next four. Hosting Texas Tech on February 25 with revenge on the mind will determine just how much of a nailbiter this becomes.
#32 Rhode Island - Slight underdog at suddenly hot Davidson on Saturday, but they have a week to get ready to clear the biggest remaining hurdle
(#39 Northern Iowa - One tough road trip to Indiana State to clear on Thursday night but they are very close to 'safe')
#57 Indiana - I continue to have them higher than anyone based on existing resume, but today's blowout loss gives me no illusions. I still think they close 1-5 and find themselves in the NIT.
#41 Xavier - Continue to be carried by the best Q1 win (@SHU) plus a stellar Q2 record compared to other teams in this territory. They need to finish 3-3 but are underdogs at St. John's this week before being favored against Villanova. Either will give them a second Q1 win (because DePaul will no longer be one soon)

Last Four Byes
#36 Florida - Like Xavier but with a more dire Q2 record still, but they too need to close 3-3 against a very tough schedule to feel comfortable. The easiest comes first vs. Arkansas on Tuesday before the first of two Kentucky games.
#51 Arizona State - Re-evaluating them upward on the strength of the best bubble home win and lack of bad losses. They will probably be fine if they lose to Oregon this week despite being a slight favorite. The So Cal road trip remains the only serious danger where they will be underdogs in both games.
#50 Wichita State - First of three Q1 road games comes in Cincinnati on Saturday. They really just need one (unless chaos occurs), and this is the most difficult one. A win here strengthens the case to avoid the First Four with a marquee win (only tournament team beaten is Oklahoma at home though this may not change that).
#55 Virginia - The Hoos travel to Pittsburgh for the first and easiest of three road games where they are favored by a single point. They will need to take two to really even think about the field, but the luckiest team keeps getting luckier. That might put them in Dayton.

Last Four In
#46 Georgetown - Other losers have bumped them up to fourth to last team in thanks to their five Q1 wins (only two really good ones), and Torvik agrees! Start the week favored vs. Providence before traveling to Chicago hoping to avoid victim to DePaul. Winning both leaves them in solid position though I really think they need another Q1-A win at Creighton or Marquette much more than both of these games.
#49 USC - Lunardi's USC obsession on the strength of Q2 record makes no sense to me. LSU and Stanford wins are losing shine. Washington and Oregon State are falling apart. I'd say they need to finish 3-2, but one of those three wins may just need to be at Colorado this Thursday (19%) chance or Arizona the following week. Home vs. Arizona State doesn't make the resume sexier.
(#43 ETSU - A road win at LSU without the dearth of Q1 losses that USC has will be still enough to keep the resume in the discussion, but there is one more bad loss than USC. The Buccs may finally take the division lead from Furman on Wednesday.)
#42 Utah State - The NET ranking keeps inflating with wins. Our third straight bubble team carried by an LSU win. Most metrics love them and they will need to put a hurt on Wyoming this week. Only New Mexico could conceivably knock them out in 13 days. The middling resume will sit in purgatory to see if others steal bids.
#48 Cincinnati - I relent...for now. Looking to go to 7-0 in Q2 games on Saturday against Wichita. But they will deservedly continue to sweat even with a win.

First Four Out
#35 Alabama
- I really think bracketologists need to give this resume another look thanks to yet another bubble team beating LSU. The remaining schedule is bare so they may need 5-1 to overtake someone, which is doable. But the toughest - a road trip to Starkville at the end of the month needs to be in the win column
#47 Richmond - The toughest opponent has been cleared and avenged this week. They definitely need at least 5-1 with a very tough road trip in tow to face the Bonnies on Saturday.
#52 Mississippi State - Another team that likely needs to go to 5-1 though 4-2 could cut it close! Four-point favorites in both games this week. They will continue to be repeated 'slight favorites' and the luck seems destined to run out.
#40 Minnesota - Down to .500 after losing a game they desperately needed. A 3-3 finish is most likely, but I'm not even sure 4-2 gets them in. The resume would be no different than Indiana's.

Next Four Out:
#37 Stanford -
Winning the three remaining February games will be enough to keep them in the discussion, but they will subsequently need to take two of three very tough March games. Not looking good.
#62 Providence - The NET rank took a hit this week despite a Q1-A win. They now have four of those marquee wins to counter their four bad losses. Need to close 4-1. Two Q1 games await this week @Georgetown and Marquette where they look to finish the season sweep against both. One keeps them in the conversation, but both would put them in prime positioning.
#61 NC State - Best pure Q1 record on the bubble, but the Q2 record is not good, and they have bad losses. They are still alive because they have two Q1-A home opportunities this week, but they may take a third Q3 loss before the end of the day. Don't expect to see them next week.
#44 Arkansas - How far they have fallen and so quick, but there is not really a win to write home about on this resume as Indiana continues to falter. Winning in Tuscaloosa was not enough. I think this is another team dependent upon a 5-1 finish, which probably requires a good performance in Gainesville on Tuesday.

Still alive?: #63 Tennessee (1-8 vs. Q1! Suspect they will barely stick around for a while due to the big final week opponents); #53 VCU (Probably done without a sweep this week of Dayton/@Saint Louis. Another resume of just LSU but significantly worse than the others); #60 Memphis (Another lost opportunity today!); #54 UNC Greensboro (Metrics remain overwhelmingly mediocre); #64 South Carolina (Like Providence but the SEC does not afford any Q1-A win opportunities); #66 SMU (Finally a good win but a little too late)


Indiana and USC are probably going to fall out in favor of Richmond and potentially the Alabama/Mississippi State winner. Georgetown is also a likely candidate to fall out while Virginia and Oklahoma have difficult paths and one will likely lose a couple. I don't have obvious candidates to replace them since all other currently out teams need to finish perfectly. My best bet is a bid stealer (American/MVC/SoCon/UCLA/A-10) could take the place of one or both of them rather than Cincinnati's spot. Minnesota/Providence/Stanford/Arkansas could also make a crazy run though!
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« Reply #361 on: February 17, 2020, 09:17:27 pm »
« Edited: February 17, 2020, 09:27:31 pm by Priest of Moloch »

A pair of heartbreaking losses for Carolina over the past two games — D*ke won at the buzzer, UVA with 0.3 on the clock tonight, both at home. It's been a down year, but this team's been snakebit.
Bullsh**t 3 with 2 seconds remaining, this team is CURSED.

Anyway:

Week 15:

Friday, February 21st
Penn @ Dartmouth
VCU @ St. Louis

Saturday, February 22nd
#3 Kansas @ #1 Baylor
#19 Marquette @ Providence
#22 Houston @ Memphis
Michigan @ Purdue
#12 Villanova @ Xavier
Loyola @ Missouri State
#8 FSU @ NC State
Oklahoma @ OK State
Rhode Island @ Davidson
Florida @ #10 Kentucky
Hofstra @ Delaware
LSU @ South Carolina
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Alabama @ Mississippi
#14 Oregon @ #24 Arizona
Georgetown @ DePaul
#2 Gonzaga @ #23 BYU

Sunday, February 23rd
#9 Penn State @ Indiana
Wichita State @ Cincinnati
Rutgers @ Wisconsin
#7 Maryland @ Ohio State
#21 Butler @ #15 Creighton
USC @ Utah
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« Reply #362 on: February 18, 2020, 08:49:11 pm »

Penn State, playing its first game as a Top 10 team since 1996, lost at home to Illinois, which had lost its previous four games.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #363 on: February 18, 2020, 08:55:30 pm »

Penn State, playing its first game as a Top 10 team since 1996, lost at home to Illinois, which had lost its previous four games.

Meh, we weathered the storm.  AYO, baby!!  Illini 'bout to go on a roll!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #364 on: February 19, 2020, 12:22:07 am »

I was definitely pre-emptive in calling Purdue an 80 percent lock. It was probably more like 70 percent and with today's third consecutive loss, they are now under 50 percent. On the bright side they have three winnable home games. You get the feeling that this Saturday vs. Michigan will dictate if they need a Big Ten tournament win (over a contender).
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #365 on: February 19, 2020, 11:58:58 am »


Week 15:

Friday, February 21st
Penn @ Dartmouth
VCU @ St. Louis

Saturday, February 22nd
#3 Kansas @ #1 Baylor
#19 Marquette @ Providence
#22 Houston @ Memphis
Michigan @ Purdue
#12 Villanova @ Xavier
Loyola @ Missouri State
#8 FSU @ NC State
Oklahoma @ OK State
Rhode Island @ Davidson
Florida @ #10 Kentucky
Hofstra @ Delaware
LSU @ South Carolina
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Alabama @ Mississippi
#14 Oregon @ #24 Arizona
Georgetown @ DePaul
#2 Gonzaga @ #23 BYU

Sunday, February 23rd
#9 Penn State @ Indiana
Wichita State @ Cincinnati
Rutgers @ Wisconsin
#7 Maryland @ Ohio State
#21 Butler @ #15 Creighton
USC @ Utah
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« Reply #366 on: February 19, 2020, 09:43:02 pm »

Incredible finish in UCF-Cincinnati.  UCF was up by 2 in double OT on the road, but Cincinnati's Jarron Cumberland hit a shot from beyond half-court...just AFTER the buzzer.  UCF with the upset!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #367 on: February 19, 2020, 09:46:05 pm »

I took UCF +500 live betting. That was the most exhausting finish I could have endured.

I ran the simulator earlier to see just how many Cincinnati needed to win, and the answer was 3-2. With both Wichita and Houston still remaining, this is an absolutely dreadful result for them as it could have nearly clinched (but probably deserved). Four Q3 losses and 2-5 Q1 record
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JGibson
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« Reply #368 on: February 20, 2020, 05:56:31 pm »

Friday, February 21st
Penn @ Dartmouth
VCU @ St. Louis

Saturday, February 22nd
#3 Kansas @ #1 Baylor
#19 Marquette @ Providence
#22 Houston @ Memphis
Michigan @ Purdue
#12 Villanova @ Xavier
Loyola @ Missouri State
#8 FSU @ NC State
Oklahoma @ OK State
Rhode Island @ Davidson
Florida @ #10 Kentucky
Hofstra @ Delaware
LSU @ South Carolina
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Alabama @ Mississippi
#14 Oregon @ #24 Arizona
Georgetown @ DePaul
#2 Gonzaga @ #23 BYU

Sunday, February 23rd
#9 Penn State @ Indiana
Wichita State @ Cincinnati
Rutgers @ Wisconsin
#7 Maryland @ Ohio State
#21 Butler @ #15 Creighton
USC @ Utah
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« Reply #369 on: February 20, 2020, 07:05:02 pm »

Friday, February 21st
Penn @ Dartmouth
VCU @ St. Louis

Saturday, February 22nd
#3 Kansas @ #1 Baylor
#19 Marquette @ Providence
#22 Houston @ Memphis
Michigan @ Purdue
#12 Villanova @ Xavier
Loyola @ Missouri State
#8 FSU @ NC State
Oklahoma @ OK State
Rhode Island @ Davidson
Florida @ #10 Kentucky
Hofstra @ Delaware
LSU @ South Carolina
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Alabama @ Mississippi
#14 Oregon @ #24 Arizona
Georgetown @ DePaul
#2 Gonzaga @ #23 BYU

Sunday, February 23rd
#9 Penn State @ Indiana
Wichita State @ Cincinnati
Rutgers @ Wisconsin
#7 Maryland @ Ohio State
#21 Butler @ #15 Creighton
USC @ Utah
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YE
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« Reply #370 on: February 21, 2020, 01:38:56 am »

Penn
St. Louis

Kansas
Providence
Houston
Purdue
Villanova
Loyala
Florida State
Oklahoma State
Davidson
Florida
Delaware
LSU
Texas Tech
Alabama
Arizona
Georgetown
BYU

Penn State
Cincinnati
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Butler
USC
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #371 on: February 21, 2020, 09:41:26 am »

Week 15:

Friday, February 21st
Penn @ Dartmouth
VCU @ Saint Louis - It's SAINT Louis, please. It's not stylized Loyola (CHI). It's not stylized N. Iowa. Show some respect for Louis IX - Please!

Saturday, February 22nd
#3 Kansas @ #1 Baylor
#19 Marquette @ Providence
#22 Houston @ Memphis
Michigan @ Purdue
#12 Villanova @ Xavier
Loyola Chicago @ Missouri State
#8 FSU @ NC State
Oklahoma @ OK State
Rhode Island @ Davidson
Florida @ #10 Kentucky
Hofstra @ Delaware - This conference tournament is going to be thrilling!
LSU @ South Carolina
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Alabama @ Mississippi
#14 Oregon @ #24 Arizona
Georgetown @ DePaul
#2 Gonzaga @ #23 BYU

Sunday, February 23rd
#9 Penn State @ Indiana
Wichita State @ Cincinnati
Rutgers @ Wisconsin
#7 Maryland @ Ohio State
#21 Butler @ #15 Creighton
USC @ Utah
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« Reply #372 on: February 21, 2020, 10:09:23 am »

VCU @ Saint Louis - It's SAINT Louis, please. It's not stylized Loyola (CHI). It's not stylized N. Iowa. Show some respect for Louis IX - Please!

I dunno, it's hard to show much respect for a school with a funny-looking imaginary mascot. Wink

WEEK 16 (not 15)

Penn @ Dartmouth
VCU @ Louis IX

#3 Kansas @ #1 Baylor
#19 Marquette @ Providence
#22 Houston @ Memphis - Quentin Grimes is hurt and doubtful to play, so taking a chance here
Michigan @ Purdue
#12 Villanova @ Xavier
Loyola @ Missouri State
#8 FSU @ NC State
Oklahoma @ OK State
Rhode Island @ Davidson
Florida @ #10 Kentucky
Hofstra @ Delaware
LSU @ South Carolina
Texas Tech @ Iowa State
Alabama @ Mississippi
#14 Oregon @ #24 Arizona - What's happened to Oregon?
Georgetown @ DePaul
#2 Gonzaga @ #23 BYU

#9 Penn State @ Indiana
Wichita State @ Cincinnati
Rutgers @ Wisconsin
#7 Maryland @ Ohio State
#21 Butler @ #15 Creighton
USC @ Utah
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« Reply #373 on: February 21, 2020, 09:06:18 pm »

It figures.  The one time I pick Penn to win, they lose to 9-14 Dartmouth.

On the plus side, everybody else picked Penn too, so it doesn't make much difference. Smiley
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« Reply #374 on: February 22, 2020, 09:38:15 am »

Thursday night...

With 11:30 left in the game, Murray State led Eastern Illinois 50-23.

Final: Eastern Illinois 63, Murray State 60.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28747528/eastern-illinois-erases-27-point-second-half-deficit-win-buzzer
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