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  Talk Elections
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  2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread
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Author Topic: 2019-2020 College Basketball Discussion and Pick 'em Thread  (Read 12264 times)
Priest of Moloch
Donerail
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« Reply #300 on: January 31, 2020, 12:58:10 am »

Week 13:
Friday, January 31st
Harvard @ Penn
Akron @ Kent State
VCU @ Rhode Island

Saturday, February 1st
Creighton @ Villanova
WKU @ FIU
Indiana @ Ohio State
Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Louisville @ NC State
DePaul @ Marquette
Gonzaga @ San Francisco
FSU @ VA Tech
Rutgers vs. Michigan
Oregon @ Stanford
Kentucky @ Auburn
Houston @ Cincinnati
Wichita State @ Tulsa
Arkansas @ Alabama
Stephen F. Austin @ Sam Houston State
Duke @ Syracuse
Clemson @ Wake
Nevada @ Boise State
St. Maryís @ BYU
Colorado @ Southern Cal

Sunday, February 2nd
Illinois @ Iowa
Georgetown @ St. Johnís
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #301 on: January 31, 2020, 08:37:03 pm »

Two games down and everyone has at least one loss already.  Looks like it's going to be one of those weeks.
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YE
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« Reply #302 on: February 01, 2020, 01:38:03 am »

Villanova
Western Kentucky
Ohio State
Michigan State
Louisville
Marquette
Gonzaga
Florida State
Rutgers
Oregon
Kentucky
Cincinnati
Tulsa
Alabama
SFA
Duke
Clemson
Boise State
BYU
USC

Illinois
St John's
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #303 on: February 01, 2020, 11:28:18 am »

Hey my Illini are doing pretty well eh Smiley Let's keep it up
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #304 on: February 01, 2020, 12:51:01 pm »

At the half, Villanova trails by 12 at home to Creighton.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #305 on: February 01, 2020, 04:14:22 pm »

What the heck is going on in the Big East?  Their three ranked teams (Villanova, Butler, and Seton Hall) all lost at home to unranked opponents.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #306 on: February 01, 2020, 04:24:31 pm »
« Edited: February 01, 2020, 04:39:45 pm by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »

DePaul yet again finds a way to lose a Q1 (Q1A no less) game despite a lead at the U4. The strength of resume allowed me to keep them "First Four Out" until today but no longer :/

Xavier takes their place in the First Four Out but their resume is still hideous excluding a big 1A road win. But I move from most optimistic about DePaul being the sixth bid to Providence. Creighton @ Providence will be hugely consequential this week.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #307 on: February 01, 2020, 08:09:14 pm »

A Houston player just got tossed for biting a Cincinnati player on the leg.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #308 on: February 02, 2020, 02:13:17 pm »
« Edited: February 02, 2020, 02:33:23 pm by Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ »

With the new NET Rankings as of Super Bowl Sunday, this is about where the bubble stands. I think about five of these final eight are trending downward and will play their way out.

Last Four Byes:
#41 Florida
#40 Rhode Island - Excellent shape with a solid resume. Just need to avoid slip ups.
#48 Oklahoma - As of today because they always intentionally build up a strong non-conference resume. Not very likely they take two of four from WVU/TTU, and they could lose one of their final two against non-tournament teams to knock them out.
(Auto Bid: #43 Northern Iowa)
#58 Virginia - Blech. The losses no longer look bad, and FSU is a better win than nearly anyone has. If ASU keeps winning, they might have a third Q1 win. If they win in Blacksburg, I don't think they will be left out.

Last Four In:
#36 VCU - Very thin resume based on efficiency in close losses. Need to take 2/3 @Richmond, @SLU, vs. Dayton without any slip ups to feel good.
#47 Xavier - Resume is close to Virginia, but TCU is trending the wrong direction so they may lose their second Q1 win.
#44 Minnesota
#39 Mississippi State - Louisiana Tech and perhaps New Mexico State losses could move to Q2 if they win their conferences. But they really need to finish no worse than 8-2.

First Four Out:
1) #37 Purdue - Ranking as of today. Future looks bleak.
2) #42 Alabama - If they can also beat Mississippi State on the road on 2/25 (or if State's losses look worse), they will overtake State and make up for the early season losses.
3) #50 Memphis - UT is trending down fast and they could lose their only Q1 win through no fault of their own.
4) #61 Virginia Tech - MSU will keep them floating around but there are no resume building opportunities for three weeks. Hosting Virginia could turn into a play-in game if they don't lose to a bottom feeder.

Next Four:
5) #46 Cincinnati - ZERO and four against Q1. A single Q2-A win will likely not make up for a 5-3 record in Q3 games (a record buoyed by two OT wins!). They will need to win @Wichita or @Houston. Do not want to take an 0-6 Q1 record into the AAC Tournament.
6) #59 DePaul - They have the wins, but the winning percentage in quality games is dropping (.333). Need to close out games and finish 6-3.
7) #56 Richmond - The rest of the schedule is garbage except for a Q2 game with VCU. Two great wins yet it seems for naught. Need too many teams in front of them to suffer losses.
(Auto-Bid: #54 ETSU)
8) #57 Utah State - Computers actually put them in...I don't see it and going forward, I don't think a win @CSU can be a difference maker. Unimpressive Q2/3 losses.

Eight More Realistic Candidates:
9) #51 Georgetown - Mac McClung out today in a must win road game. They just can't win away from Verizon Center. We're just about done here.
10) #66 Syracuse - Interesting resume full of road wins and home losses against all ACC bubble teams. I don't think those road wins continue @FSU or @Louisville, so last night may have been the nail in the coffin.
11) #55 Arizona State - NET figure seems inflated due to winning against Quade-less UW, but I still think the Sun Devils will jump to First Four out sooner rather than later. Raw quadrant records look like a team that could sneak in.
12) #69 NC State - Unlike other ACC teams, they have reasonable and helpful opportunities in front of them, but they have dropped 20 ranks exceptionally fast.
13) #64 Providence - Survived their toughest remaining game, but like DePaul still need to go at least 6-3 to have a chance (and they close the season with each other!). Hosting Creighton and going to Xavier this week will tell us how realistic that is.
14) #70 Tennessee - Every remaining game is an opportunity to prove that they can compete without Turner, but they are on the edge.
15) #73 St. John's - Two strong Q1-A wins. Too many Q4 wins may hold them back. The NET needs to move up about 15 spots. Unfortunately, the schedule in front of them may be more menacing than Purdue's.
16) #60 Tulsa - Zero and two against Q1. Better Q2 wins than Cincinnati but also two bad losses and worse metrics. Like Cincinnati, has two Q1 opportunities @Houston and @Wichita.

Long Shots: #74 Utah; #68 Saint Louis; #71 UNCG; #75 South Carolina; #62 Texas; #65 Notre Dame; #78 Pitt; #72 SMU

Off the "Bubble": #79 Oregon State; #53 Washington; #67 TCU
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #309 on: February 02, 2020, 02:46:50 pm »

Nice job.  Are you going to post updates regularly?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #310 on: February 02, 2020, 03:25:11 pm »

WEEK 13 RESULTS

A tight battle for first this week, with sjoyce winning by a hair.

17 sjoyce
16 GeorgiaModerate
15 Illiniwek, Sprouts
13 JGibson
11 YE (didn't pick Friday games)

The average score was 14.5, not great but a lot better than last week.

Unanimous picks:

Rhode Island-VCU
Villanova-Creighton (wrong)
Ohio State-Indiana
Louisvile-N.C. State
Gonzaga-San Francisco
Floria State-Va. Tech
Duke-Syracuse
St. John's-Georgetown (wrong)

Games with one dissenter:

Akron-Kent State (dissenter was right)
Michigan State-Wisconsin (dissenter was right)
Marquette-DePaul
Alabama-Arkansas (dissenter was right)
Boise State-Nevada

Overall results:

206 Sprouts
203 sjoyce
198 GeorgiaModerate
189 Illiniwek
180 JGibson
152 dfw
138 YE
98 RINO Tom
36 Sunrise








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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #311 on: February 03, 2020, 02:17:14 pm »

There are five weeks left in the regular season.  I assume that will be the end of the current pick'em game.  After that...

Picking the conference tournaments seems to be too difficult.  We'd probably just have to pick the winner for each conference (or the top 25 conferences) in advance.  This would require getting picks in very early in the week, because some of the conferences start super early.  So I think we should skip this week in the contest, although I might post my tournament picks for fun.

Then we come to the NCAA's.   Any thoughts on running a bracket contest?
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #312 on: February 04, 2020, 11:23:49 pm »

Xavier putting up an outstanding road performance again to strengthen their bubble position even further while seemingly knocking out DePaul. Texas Tech's win is the bare minimum needed to keep them off the bubble while knocking Oklahoma down a rung on our 'As of Today' bracketology. The Torvik T-Cast already had them out on the full season forecast, so this definitely won't help. They really need to win Saturday or else they will need to beat TTU in the Big XII Tournament rematch and sweat.

Alabama and Virginia Tech took brutal losses tonight. Tennessee still needs a lot of help.

Tomorrow night is the big night for the bubble this week.

  • Purdue is now the last team in, and they host 5 seed Iowa as 3.5 point favourites. They can't lose at home as they aim to stay more than a game over .500, but the remaining schedule isn't impossible by any means if they start playing well away from home.
  • Providence is still pretty far off, but they are just one point dogs hosting 4 seed Creighton at the Dunk. Torvik thinks a win will move them to 'First Four Out' on the forecast model.
  • Georgetown is a pick 'em underdog to 3 seed Seton Hall! They'll have more chances, but you get the feeling this is the tipping point game on their schedule, and another close home loss will leave as a top NIT seed.
  • A Minnesota (-3.5) home loss to the Badgers will move them to .500 and solidly out (for now!).
  • NC State (-3.5) cannot afford a road loss to dwindling Miami, which will be dangerous if Lykes returns. A loss moves them to the very back of the line for now despite having ample opportunities ahead of them.

Four teams with home games they should win will be noteworthy to watch, but they all have different circumstances. Saint Louis (67%) hosts Duquesne hoping to stay alive. Memphis (79%) cannot afford a loss to cratering Temple. Virginia (76%) would fall out with a loss to Clemson at JPJ. Florida (83%) is looking to retain their bye hosting the Anthony Edwards show. Odds are one will lose!

Utah State is also in action. I think they are surging double digit home favourites over UNLV. I'll be interested in how their ratings are impacted by performance.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #313 on: February 05, 2020, 09:36:37 am »

sjoyce, are you going to post a slate of games for this week?
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #314 on: February 05, 2020, 12:20:29 pm »

My girlfriend and I are driving down Friday morning to Champaign for the battle for first place!!
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #315 on: February 05, 2020, 05:31:38 pm »

Nice! I am hoping to get down for at least one more game, but its going to be tough considering how the prices are skyrocketing for weekend games. Might have to find a way to go down for a weeknight game. But expensive Illini tickets certainly means something is going right and that is a good problem to have!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #316 on: February 05, 2020, 06:33:58 pm »
« Edited: February 05, 2020, 06:39:56 pm by GeorgiaModerate »

Since sjoyce hasn't done it, I'll post a list of 25 games for this week.  No Friday games since it's already Wednesday.

WEEK #14 (Times EST)

Saturday, Feb. 8:

#18 LSU @ #11 Auburn 12:00 ESPN
#16 Michigan State @ Michigan 12:00 Fox
Depaul @ Georgetown 12:00
SMU @ Temple 12:00
#15 Kentucky @ Tennessee 1:00 CBS
Texas A&M @ South Carolina 1:00 SECN
St. Louis @ #6 Dayton 2:00 CBSSN
Florida @ Ole Miss 2:00 ESPN2
#13 West Virginia @ Oklahoma 2:00 ESPNU
#12 Seton Hall @ #10 Villanova 2:30 Fox
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne 3:00
Texas Tech @ Texas 4:00 ESPN2
Sam Houston State @ Nicholls 4:00
Alabama @ Georgia 6:00 SECN
#7 Duke @ North Carolina, 6:00 ESPN
Stanford @ #24 Colorado 6:00 PAC12
Kansas State @ Iowa State 8:00 ESPN2
#2 Gonzaga @ St. Mary's 10:00 ESPN
#14 Oregon @ Oregon State 10:30 PAC12

Sunday, Feb. 9:

#19 Butler @ Marquette 12:00 FS1
Cincinnati @ Connecticut 12:00 CBSSN
Ohio State @ Wisconsin 1:00 CBS
Wichita State @ #25 Houston 3:00 ESPN
Notre Dame @ Clemson 6:00 ACCN
Washington @ Washington State 6:00 ESPNU
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #317 on: February 05, 2020, 07:51:03 pm »

At the half, Purdue leads Iowa 61-36.  Big Ten teams don't usually score 61 in a full game. Smiley
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #318 on: February 05, 2020, 10:12:14 pm »

As if this season couldn't get any worse, against our biggest rivals tonight, we lost our 1,080 game streak of making a 3-pointer, dating back to the introduction of the 3 point line.  We went 0-25 from the line and have now lost 24 straight SEC games, including the SEC Tournament.

Now, UNLV and Princeton are the last two schools that have made at least one 3 in every game since the introduction of the 3 point line.

Somebody named Maxwell Evans went 5-7 from 3pt line in the first half and has scored 25 pts as Vandy leads LSU 52-47 at the half.  Still wouldn't get too excited yet.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #319 on: February 05, 2020, 11:11:53 pm »

As if this season couldn't get any worse, against our biggest rivals tonight, we lost our 1,080 game streak of making a 3-pointer, dating back to the introduction of the 3 point line.  We went 0-25 from the line and have now lost 24 straight SEC games, including the SEC Tournament.

Now, UNLV and Princeton are the last two schools that have made at least one 3 in every game since the introduction of the 3 point line.

Somebody named Maxwell Evans went 5-7 from 3pt line in the first half and has scored 25 pts as Vandy leads LSU 52-47 at the half.  Still wouldn't get too excited yet.

Now you can get excited
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #320 on: February 05, 2020, 11:49:30 pm »

As if this season couldn't get any worse, against our biggest rivals tonight, we lost our 1,080 game streak of making a 3-pointer, dating back to the introduction of the 3 point line.  We went 0-25 from the line and have now lost 24 straight SEC games, including the SEC Tournament.

Now, UNLV and Princeton are the last two schools that have made at least one 3 in every game since the introduction of the 3 point line.

Somebody named Maxwell Evans went 5-7 from 3pt line in the first half and has scored 25 pts as Vandy leads LSU 52-47 at the half.  Still wouldn't get too excited yet.

Now you can get excited

I didn't even watch the game because I had plans tonight, but imagine my shock when I checked my phone and saw the score!  Particularly against a team who was undefeated in the SEC.  Sports are weird sometimes!
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #321 on: February 06, 2020, 01:30:43 pm »


WEEK #14 (Times EST)

Saturday, Feb. 8:

#18 LSU @ #11 Auburn 12:00 ESPN
#16 Michigan State @ Michigan 12:00 Fox
Depaul @ Georgetown 12:00
SMU @ Temple 12:00
#15 Kentucky @ Tennessee 1:00 CBS
Texas A&M @ South Carolina 1:00 SECN
St. Louis @ #6 Dayton 2:00 CBSSN
Florida @ Ole Miss 2:00 ESPN2
#13 West Virginia @ Oklahoma 2:00 ESPNU
#12 Seton Hall @ #10 Villanova 2:30 Fox
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne 3:00
Texas Tech @ Texas 4:00 ESPN2
Sam Houston State @ Nicholls 4:00
Alabama @ Georgia 6:00 SECN
#7 Duke @ North Carolina, 6:00 ESPN
Stanford @ #24 Colorado 6:00 PAC12
Kansas State @ Iowa State 8:00 ESPN2
#2 Gonzaga @ St. Mary's 10:00 ESPN
#14 Oregon @ Oregon State 10:30 PAC12

Sunday, Feb. 9:

#19 Butler @ Marquette 12:00 FS1
Cincinnati @ Connecticut 12:00 CBSSN
Ohio State @ Wisconsin 1:00 CBS
Wichita State @ #25 Houston 3:00 ESPN
Notre Dame @ Clemson 6:00 ACCN
Washington @ Washington State 6:00 ESPNU
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #322 on: February 06, 2020, 02:36:55 pm »

Saturday, Feb. 8:

#18 LSU @ #11 Auburn 12:00 ESPN
#16 Michigan State @ Michigan 12:00 Fox
DePaul @ Georgetown 12:00
SMU @ Temple 12:00
#15 Kentucky @ Tennessee 1:00 CBS
Texas A&M @ South Carolina 1:00 SECN
St. Louis @ #6 Dayton 2:00 CBSSN
Florida @ Ole Miss 2:00 ESPN2 - Please Ole Miss! Please drop 'em!
#13 West Virginia @ Oklahoma 2:00 ESPNU
#12 Seton Hall @ #10 Villanova 2:30 Fox
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne 3:00
Texas Tech @ Texas 4:00 ESPN2
Sam Houston State @ Nicholls 4:00
Alabama @ Georgia 6:00 SECN - potentially the most critical game of the weekend
#7 Duke @ North Carolina, 6:00 ESPN
Stanford @ #24 Colorado 6:00 PAC12
Kansas State @ Iowa State 8:00 ESPN2
#2 Gonzaga @ St. Mary's 10:00 ESPN
#14 Oregon @ Oregon State 10:30 PAC12 - I'm going to regret taking a gutsy risk against what the data says!

Sunday, Feb. 9: lol, no way all home teams pull this off but....

#19 Butler @ Marquette 12:00 FS1
Cincinnati @ Connecticut 12:00 CBSSN
Ohio State @ Wisconsin 1:00 CBS
Wichita State @ #25 Houston 3:00 ESPN
Notre Dame @ Clemson 6:00 ACCN
Washington @ Washington State 6:00 ESPNU - See Civil War comment
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JGibson
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« Reply #323 on: February 06, 2020, 03:08:48 pm »

Saturday, Feb. 8:
#18 LSU @ #11 Auburn 12:00 ESPN
#16 Michigan State @ Michigan 12:00 Fox
Depaul @ Georgetown 12:00
SMU @ Temple 12:00
#15 Kentucky @ Tennessee 1:00 CBS
Texas A&M @ South Carolina 1:00 SECN
St. Louis @ #6 Dayton 2:00 CBSSN
Florida @ Ole Miss 2:00 ESPN2
#13 West Virginia @ Oklahoma 2:00 ESPNU
#12 Seton Hall @ #10 Villanova 2:30 Fox
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne 3:00
Texas Tech @ Texas 4:00 ESPN2
Sam Houston State @ Nicholls 4:00
Alabama @ Georgia 6:00 SECN
#7 Duke @ North Carolina, 6:00 ESPN
Stanford @ #24 Colorado 6:00 PAC12
Kansas State @ Iowa State 8:00 ESPN2
#2 Gonzaga @ St. Mary's 10:00 ESPN
#14 Oregon @ Oregon State 10:30 PAC12

Sunday, Feb. 9:
#19 Butler @ Marquette 12:00 FS1
Cincinnati @ Connecticut 12:00 CBSSN
Ohio State @ Wisconsin 1:00 CBS
Wichita State @ #25 Houston 3:00 ESPN
Notre Dame @ Clemson 6:00 ACCN
Washington @ Washington State 6:00 ESPNU
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #324 on: February 07, 2020, 07:53:35 pm »

#18 LSU @ #11 Auburn 12:00 ESPN
#16 Michigan State @ Michigan 12:00 Fox
Depaul @ Georgetown 12:00
SMU @ Temple 12:00
#15 Kentucky @ Tennessee 1:00 CBS
Texas A&M @ South Carolina 1:00 SECN
St. Louis @ #6 Dayton 2:00 CBSSN
Florida @ Ole Miss 2:00 ESPN2
#13 West Virginia @ Oklahoma 2:00 ESPNU
#12 Seton Hall @ #10 Villanova 2:30 Fox
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne 3:00
Texas Tech @ Texas 4:00 ESPN2
Sam Houston State @ Nicholls 4:00
Alabama @ Georgia 6:00 SECN
#7 Duke @ North Carolina, 6:00 ESPN
Stanford @ #24 Colorado 6:00 PAC12
Kansas State @ Iowa State 8:00 ESPN2
#2 Gonzaga @ St. Mary's 10:00 ESPN
#14 Oregon @ Oregon State 10:30 PAC12

#19 Butler @ Marquette 12:00 FS1
Cincinnati @ Connecticut 12:00 CBSSN
Ohio State @ Wisconsin 1:00 CBS
Wichita State @ #25 Houston 3:00 ESPN
Notre Dame @ Clemson 6:00 ACCN
Washington @ Washington State 6:00 ESPNU
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