UK: Thatcher gets fourth term in '92, calls for 1997 election

[Suburbia]

British Conservative Party in 1992 wins a historic fourth consecutive term, making Margaret Thatcher one of the most powerful women in the world.

Does Thatcher win again in '97?

[brucejoel99]

If she makes it to 1997, then she'd be seen as having been directly responsible for pretty much everything that had happened over the prior 18 years. So yeah, Blair would absolutely slaughter her, quite possibly even to the point that he could've comfortably moved to the left as well, since 1997's Thatcher, in contrast to what we saw with Major, would've been absolutely toxic.

[Del Tachi]

There's no way Thatcher wins a GE in 1992, but if she does then 1997 is a massacre.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There's no way Thatcher wins a GE in 1992, but if she does then 1997 is a massacre.

Lol yes. Even if it's not a near-extinction like the PC faced in Canada in 1993, it would be at least as bad as Socialists' result in the French legislative election that very year.

[Lechasseur]

There's no way Thatcher wins a GE in 1992, but if she does then 1997 is a massacre.

Lol yes. Even if it's not a near-extinction like the PC faced in Canada in 1993, it would be at least as bad as Socialists' result in the French legislative election that very year.

Yeah I agree with that

[Snazzrazz Mazzlejazz]

She might end up losing to someone like Gordon Brown instead of Blair because it was less necessary for the party to pivot right. Butterflies could even cause Smith to not have his heart attack and he would almost assuredly take Labour to its biggest majority ever.

[Ritz]

She'd probably have added an extra five years before the modernizers in the Tories took power, if ever depending on if the Lib Dems could displace them.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The Conservative Party would get destroyed so badly, probably without the Labour Party needing to move to the centre, that I can see the Lib Dems becoming the second biggest force in 2001. It would have been the fulfilling of a dream for me.

[mjwatts1983]

1. You have to assume that there was no or even a future challenge to Thatcher’s Conservative Party leadership. In November 1990, 152 Tories voted for someone else to be their leader which eventually forced Thatcher to resign after she vowed to fight on from a conference in Paris. Even if she did fight on, it might have weakened her 1992 prospects showing that there were cracks among the Conservatives.

2. Labour had dug itself out of a deep hole it got into in the 1980s. PM James Callaghan did not have the political sense like Harold Wilson did and punted on calling an election in the fall of 1978. It may have lessen the Winter of Discontent thus leading to Thatcher in 1979. The fallout of 1979 led to the Labour left taking over the party to where it was unelectable in 1983 and having to fight to get to 2nd party status in 1987. 1992 was their first shot at being back in Number 10 and Neil Kinnock almost pulled it off.

Key word being almost

The BBC projected a hung parliament when the polls closed at 10PM but as the night and morning went on, it turned out that John Major would end up with a majority (CON 336, LAB 271, LD 20) of 21. Could Thatcher pull of another win or does the new dawn finally break in 1992?

3. 1997 seems to be the year the UK had enough of Conservative rule. I think whoever was the Tory leader was going to a tough election. And it was... LAB 418, CON 165, LD 46

[Suburbia]

If she makes it to 1997, then she'd be seen as having been directly responsible for pretty much everything that had happened over the prior 18 years. So yeah, Blair would absolutely slaughter her, quite possibly even to the point that he could've comfortably moved to the left as well, since 1997's Thatcher, in contrast to what we saw with Major, would've been absolutely toxic.

She would have stayed on to the Tory leadership until 2001 and probably retire.

[brucejoel99]

If she makes it to 1997, then she'd be seen as having been directly responsible for pretty much everything that had happened over the prior 18 years. So yeah, Blair would absolutely slaughter her, quite possibly even to the point that he could've comfortably moved to the left as well, since 1997's Thatcher, in contrast to what we saw with Major, would've been absolutely toxic.

She would have stayed on to the Tory leadership until 2001 and probably retire.

Assuming, perhaps boldly, that Rudi Vis doesn't manage to beat her outright in Finchley in this scenario's 1997 (imagine that: "Were you still up for Maggie?"), if she'd so much as just thought about even considering an attempt to do that, then there's no way in hell that she's not immediately deposed by whatever remains of the parliamentary party in this scenario.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Thatcher could well have won again in 1992, but 1997 was practically unwinnable for the Conservatives.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If she makes it to 1997, then she'd be seen as having been directly responsible for pretty much everything that had happened over the prior 18 years. So yeah, Blair would absolutely slaughter her, quite possibly even to the point that he could've comfortably moved to the left as well, since 1997's Thatcher, in contrast to what we saw with Major, would've been absolutely toxic.

She would have stayed on to the Tory leadership until 2001 and probably retire.

Assuming, perhaps boldly, that Rudi Vis doesn't manage to beat her outright in Finchley in this scenario's 1997 (imagine that: "Were you still up for Maggie?"), if she'd so much as just thought about even considering an attempt to do that, then there's no way in hell that she's not immediately deposed by whatever remains of the parliamentary party in this scenario.

Would  all the sleaze scandals and divisions over Europe happen if Thatcher is the leader though . The Tories still lose badly but it may be more like a 1945 Style defeat for the Tories rather than a 1997 style one

[brucejoel99]

If she makes it to 1997, then she'd be seen as having been directly responsible for pretty much everything that had happened over the prior 18 years. So yeah, Blair would absolutely slaughter her, quite possibly even to the point that he could've comfortably moved to the left as well, since 1997's Thatcher, in contrast to what we saw with Major, would've been absolutely toxic.

She would have stayed on to the Tory leadership until 2001 and probably retire.

Assuming, perhaps boldly, that Rudi Vis doesn't manage to beat her outright in Finchley in this scenario's 1997 (imagine that: "Were you still up for Maggie?"), if she'd so much as just thought about even considering an attempt to do that, then there's no way in hell that she's not immediately deposed by whatever remains of the parliamentary party in this scenario.

Would  all the sleaze scandals and divisions over Europe happen if Thatcher is the leader though . The Tories still lose badly but it may be more like a 1945 Style defeat for the Tories rather than a 1997 style one

Yeah, no, there's no way that's happening.

For one thing, the "sleaze" wasn't really avoidable on the basis of who was leader, in that it wasn't the leadership's problem but was rather caused by the numerous sex scandals plaguing the parliamentary party's rank-&-file & - by extension - the government. Said sex scandals aren't really avoidable just by switching out Major for Thatcher or somebody else entirely.

For another, the divisions over Europe were unavoidable too, & especially so had Thatcher been the one in charge. Just imagine the utter hell that the then-overwhelmingly Europhile party would've raised had the Maastricht rebels had one of their own as PM, stifling negotiations in direct opposition to where the vast majority of the parliamentary party that she supposedly led stood. If anything, that'd just lead to her being ousted then, even after the failure in this scenario's 1990.

Really, Britain was just done with the Tories by '97. If Thatcher survives 'til then, there's no way it doesn't end in slaughter, & if Thatcher holds on in Finchley & then seeks to remain LotO after said slaughter, there's no way that doesn't end in what's left of the party after said slaughter telling her to piss off just out of pure self-interest alone, if literally nothing else.

Not to mention, all of this assumes that the dementia - undeniably developing by the '90s - just isn't an issue somehow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A Thatcher-led Conservative administration would have been badly defeated in 1992, which is the principle reason why she was removed from her post in real life. And by 1997 she was already showing clear signs of the dementia that clouded her final years.