Is Texas in play in 2020?

[SN2903]

Thoughts?

[I Can Now Die Happy]

No, Robert Francis did his best while Cruz underestimated him for months. I don't think Warren would have Robert's appeal, especially given the fact that in retrospect Robert was shooting the bull as to how moderate he really was (see: shift in gun control stance).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I would be surprised if it was a serious swing state in 2020.  While the demographic shifts have to be somewhat alarming for the GOP and I do think that the margin of victory will be 6-7 points at maximum in 2020, I don't see Texas truly being in play until 2024 at the earliest. 

[TML]

Only if Democrats are on track to winning the NPV by 1992/1996/2008-like margins.

[ElectionsGuy]

It is, in terms of being with the realm of possibility for Democrats. But if its actually in play, like Cruz vs Beto, then Republicans should be nervous. Don't know just yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas is still Lean R, but it's in play in the sense that it's worthwhile for the Democratic candidate to invest some money and time here.  At a minimum, it would help their candidates in the downballot races, and it's not inconceivable that one of the more moderate D candidates could win the state.

[Frenchrepublican]

It depends of what do you mean by ,,being in play’’ ; if by that you mean that Texas is a true wing state where both parties have a equal chance of victory, then it’s not in play ; now if by that you mean that Texas could, at least in theory, vote Democrat, then yeah it’s in play. Now, the democratic candidate will have to win the PV by <8 in order to have a real chance to flip Texas so I don’t think it’s really smart to say that Texas is in play because it’s fairly unlikely that next year will be a such D blowout.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

You’re just trying to bait me aren’t you

[Woody]

Most likely not. The 800,000+ vote deficit they have to overcome is currently a logistical nightmare and time consuming on the presidential level. Not to mention the fact that Texas still has a large quantity of inactive hispanic voters, evangelicals, 2nd amendment advocates, and a whole bunch of rural voters. A competitive Texas will come by the 2030s.

[Xing]

Under the right conditions it could be, but it'll most likely stay Republican for now.

[DrScholl]

It is and it will be in play the more that delusional right-wingers push the notion that it's as safe as Wyoming. But I have a feeling that they know it's not safe and only make these claims to sooth their own worries.

[libertpaulian]

It's possible, yes, but not in the sense that FL/OH/WI/MI/PA/AZ/GA/NC/NH are.

[Politician]

Under the right conditions it could be, but it'll most likely stay Republican for now.

[SN2903]

Most likely not. The 800,000+ vote deficit they have to overcome is currently a logistical nightmare and time consuming on the presidential level. Not to mention the fact that Texas still has a large quantity of inactive hispanic voters, evangelicals, 2nd amendment advocates, and a whole bunch of rural voters. A competitive Texas will come by the 2030s.

I agree with that.

[Devout Centrist]

Most likely not. The 800,000+ vote deficit they have to overcome is currently a logistical nightmare and time consuming on the presidential level. Not to mention the fact that Texas still has a large quantity of inactive hispanic voters, evangelicals, 2nd amendment advocates, and a whole bunch of rural voters. A competitive Texas will come by the 2030s.

O'Rourke managed to turn a 1.2 million vote gap into a 200,000 vote gap; O'Rourke added over 900,000 new votes while Cruz lost almost 200,000. It can be done.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's possible, yes, but not in the sense that FL/OH/WI/MI/PA/AZ/GA/NC/NH are.

Replace IA with OH and I would agree with you. OH like Texas will only have a good chance of flipping in an 2008 style landslide

[Politician]

It's possible, yes, but not in the sense that FL/OH/WI/MI/PA/AZ/GA/NC/NH are.

Replace IA with OH and I would agree with you. OH like Texas will only have a good chance of flipping in an 2008 style landslide

inb4 IndyRep

[SN2903]

It's possible, yes, but not in the sense that FL/OH/WI/MI/PA/AZ/GA/NC/NH are.

Replace IA with OH and I would agree with you. OH like Texas will only have a good chance of flipping in an 2008 style landslide

Don't agree. Ohio or Texas are not in play.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Republicans will have to spend money to defend it and will succeed which is a win for Democrats at this current time.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's possible, yes, but not in the sense that FL/OH/WI/MI/PA/AZ/GA/NC/NH are.

Replace IA with OH and I would agree with you. OH like Texas will only have a good chance of flipping in an 2008 style landslide

inb4 IndyRep

IndyRep and I have made a bet on this so whoever is wrong will have to put in their sig till inauguration day that they were wrong about Ohio and Iowa and adopt the analysis of the poster in their sig as well.


I am 90% sure I will win this 

[Politician]

It's possible, yes, but not in the sense that FL/OH/WI/MI/PA/AZ/GA/NC/NH are.

Replace IA with OH and I would agree with you. OH like Texas will only have a good chance of flipping in an 2008 style landslide

inb4 IndyRep

IndyRep and I have made a bet on this so whoever is wrong will have to put in their sig till inauguration day that they were wrong about Ohio and Iowa and adopt the analysis of the poster in their sig as well.


I am 90% sure I will win this 

Didn't you also bet IA will vote to the left of TX?

Anyway, I agree with you. IndyRep can invoke previous examples of House Popular Vote, but there is virtually no result suggesting IA will vote left of OH or TX except for its 2016 result.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It's possible, yes, but not in the sense that FL/OH/WI/MI/PA/AZ/GA/NC/NH are.

Replace IA with OH and I would agree with you. OH like Texas will only have a good chance of flipping in an 2008 style landslide

inb4 IndyRep

IndyRep and I have made a bet on this so whoever is wrong will have to put in their sig till inauguration day that they were wrong about Ohio and Iowa and adopt the analysis of the poster in their sig as well.


I am 90% sure I will win this 

Didn't you also bet IA will vote to the left of TX?

Anyway, I agree with you. IndyRep can invoke previous examples of House Popular Vote, but there is virtually no result suggesting IA will vote left of OH or TX except for its 2016 result.

Yah

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It's possible, yes, but not in the sense that FL/OH/WI/MI/PA/AZ/GA/NC/NH are.

Replace IA with OH and I would agree with you. OH like Texas will only have a good chance of flipping in an 2008 style landslide

inb4 IndyRep

IndyRep and I have made a bet on this so whoever is wrong will have to put in their sig till inauguration day that they were wrong about Ohio and Iowa and adopt the analysis of the poster in their sig as well.


I am 90% sure I will win this 

Didn't you also bet IA will vote to the left of TX?

Anyway, I agree with you. IndyRep can invoke previous examples of House Popular Vote, but there is virtually no result suggesting IA will vote left of OH or TX except for its 2016 result.

Yah

Which will also be hilariously wrong, but it seems like people want to use early polls in the Midwest which have recently heavily overestimated Dems as the basis for this

[History505]

It is not in play. Trump will still win the state.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Trump's state-by-state approval rating suggests its at least worth keeping an eye on Texas for now, but it clearly isn't going to be the decisive, tipping-point state in 2020.