We Ask America: Tied race in Louisiana

[Terry the Fat Shark]

poll was provided early to the Washington Times, apparently, will be made public tomorrow:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/oct/17/john-bel-edwards-eddie-rispone-tied-louisiana-gove/?fbclid=IwAR25nB-PlmxGgykGgX-aQ2EYHxM_nqnU2PfVsE65M3PPEcKxLS6ajYXJW6Y

John Bel Edwards (D) - 47%
Eddie Rispone (R) - 47%

[Matty]

Good poll for JBE

Undecided voters break for dems in Louisiana

There hasn’t been a single election in Louisiana where the gop candidate won late deciders

[Gass3268]

Not bad for a Republican pollster.

[MT Treasurer]

Really don’t see how this is a good poll for JBE when he’s polling at the same 47% he received in the jungle primary and Rispone has consolidated Republican support that quickly. He could win, but this is not where he wants the race to be.

[Matty]

Not bad for a Republican pollster.

Here was their poll for the jungle

Jbe 47
Rispone 23

Abraham 17

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yikes. Well, Likely R

[KaiserDave]

GOP pollster. Next.

[Xing]

Not a great poll for Edwards. We need to see more, but it's looking like partisanship really is an unstoppable force. Well, at least for Republicans.

[Matty]

GOP pollster. Next.

Their jungle poll was accurate

[KaiserDave]

GOP pollster. Next.

Their jungle poll was accurate

Perhaps, but getting caught up in partisan polls is a mistake I've frequently made before.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Louisiana Governor by We Ask America on 2019-10-16

Summary: D: 47%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Politician]

Tossup.

[ElectionsGuy]

GOP pollster. Next.

Their jungle poll was accurate

No? Their jungle poll underestimated the Republican vote by 11 points and got JBE's number just right (rounded of course). And realistically, they overestimated JBE's number as well, since it would be ridiculous for him to get 0% of undecided voters.

It's really tiring hearing "Republican pollsters = automatically not reliable". Often times, even Republican pollsters end up underestimating their own %/margins. This is not a good poll for JBE.

[Frenchrepublican]

This poll is really horrible for Edwards. The sample looks very realistic and undecided voters don’t seem to be particularly favourable to him.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Good poll for JBE

Undecided voters break for dems in Louisiana

There hasn’t been a single election in Louisiana where the gop candidate won late deciders

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Louisiana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election#Polling

The opposite seems to be true. If undecideds broke for JBE he'd have won last week.

If you're referring to the 2015 results --> Vitter =/= Rispone

[Frenchrepublican]

Really don’t see how this is a good poll for JBE when he’s polling at the same 47% he received in the jungle primary and Rispone has consolidated Republican support that quickly. He could win, but this is not where he wants the race to be.

Apparently Edwards has already nearly hit his ceiling in the primary and it seems he will have a hard time finding the 4% of the electorate whom he will need to be reelected.

[Cinemark]

GOP pollster. Next.

Their jungle poll was accurate

No? Their jungle poll underestimated the Republican vote by 11 points and got JBE's number just right (rounded of course). And realistically, they overestimated JBE's number as well, since it would be ridiculous for him to get 0% of undecided voters.

It's really tiring hearing "Republican pollsters = automatically not reliable". Often times, even Republican pollsters end up underestimating their own %/margins. This is not a good poll for JBE.

I dont mind party affilated pollsters if they have a history of accuracy/non bias.

538 gave We Ask America a C letter grade with a .9 Republican bias.

So while i get what your saying, this pollster apparently has a not great polling history.

And yes, their jungle primary numbers were pretty accurate. But so were the vast majority of the jungly primary polls.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

AG Landry is prolly knocking his head into a wall, almost would be safe R with him.

[Frenchrepublican]

GOP pollster. Next.

Their jungle poll was accurate

No? Their jungle poll underestimated the Republican vote by 11 points and got JBE's number just right (rounded of course). And realistically, they overestimated JBE's number as well, since it would be ridiculous for him to get 0% of undecided voters.

It's really tiring hearing "Republican pollsters = automatically not reliable". Often times, even Republican pollsters end up underestimating their own %/margins. This is not a good poll for JBE.

I dont mind party affilated pollsters if they have a history of accuracy/non bias.

538 gave We Ask America a C letter grade with a .9 Republican bias.

So while i get what your saying, this pollster apparently has a not great polling history.

And yes, their jungle primary numbers were pretty accurate. But so were the vast majority of the jungly primary polls.

Fivethirtyeight ratings are bogus and are pretty old, they were not uptated since the 2018 midterms.

[2016]

There is one Number I am pretty curious about: The Impeachment Number in regards to Trump.

In KY the M-D Poll revealed that only 25% actually support impeaching Trump, 65 % opposed it.

If we see similar Numbers in LA as well Rispone might pull this off.

[Cinemark]

GOP pollster. Next.

Their jungle poll was accurate

No? Their jungle poll underestimated the Republican vote by 11 points and got JBE's number just right (rounded of course). And realistically, they overestimated JBE's number as well, since it would be ridiculous for him to get 0% of undecided voters.

It's really tiring hearing "Republican pollsters = automatically not reliable". Often times, even Republican pollsters end up underestimating their own %/margins. This is not a good poll for JBE.

I dont mind party affilated pollsters if they have a history of accuracy/non bias.

538 gave We Ask America a C letter grade with a .9 Republican bias.

So while i get what your saying, this pollster apparently has a not great polling history.

And yes, their jungle primary numbers were pretty accurate. But so were the vast majority of the jungly primary polls.

Fivethirtyeight ratings are bogus and are pretty old, they were not uptated since the 2018 midterms.

Whatever you say Frenchrepublican.

[Frenchrepublican]

GOP pollster. Next.

Their jungle poll was accurate

No? Their jungle poll underestimated the Republican vote by 11 points and got JBE's number just right (rounded of course). And realistically, they overestimated JBE's number as well, since it would be ridiculous for him to get 0% of undecided voters.

It's really tiring hearing "Republican pollsters = automatically not reliable". Often times, even Republican pollsters end up underestimating their own %/margins. This is not a good poll for JBE.

I dont mind party affilated pollsters if they have a history of accuracy/non bias.

538 gave We Ask America a C letter grade with a .9 Republican bias.

So while i get what your saying, this pollster apparently has a not great polling history.

And yes, their jungle primary numbers were pretty accurate. But so were the vast majority of the jungly primary polls.

Fivethirtyeight ratings are bogus and are pretty old, they were not uptated since the 2018 midterms.

Whatever you say Frenchrepublican.

The last update is from May 2018

[Green Line]

We ask America is considered the Gold Standard ever since they nailed the 2010 US House race for IL-8.  Melissa Bean lost to Joe Walsh.  Everyone knows this!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yikes! Stick a fork in JBE. Not too sad to see him go though.

[Skill and Chance]

Certainly a net negative for JBE to have Rispone consolidate that much of the Abraham vote this early.  A tie in an R-affiliated poll isn't overly impressive either though.  Supports the general view that this will be close.