Would Alabama elect a Democrat over a Republican if this was the case
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 10:10:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Would Alabama elect a Democrat over a Republican if this was the case
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Poll
Question: Vote
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 63

Author Topic: Would Alabama elect a Democrat over a Republican if this was the case  (Read 1415 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 17, 2019, 03:40:24 PM »

Democratic Candidate: Pro Life and Super Tough on illegal Immigration

Republican Candidate: Super Pro Choice(opposes late term abortion ban as well), supports amnesty, right wing on economics but not only Endorsed by Trump , Trump does a rally for the Republican as well
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2019, 03:40:44 PM »

I think maybe yes
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2019, 03:41:06 PM »

No, and the Trumpers in AL would start supporting late term abortion.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,589
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2019, 03:46:01 PM »

Republican wins by 14.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2019, 03:53:40 PM »

No. Research has shown that people pick a party, and then that informs their political views. Politics is just as tribal as many believe.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2019, 03:56:16 PM »

The Republican wins easily because of the (R) and Trump.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2019, 04:02:17 PM »

The Republican wins easily because of the (R) and Trump.

This. Most people probably wouldn't even be aware of the candidates' positions.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2019, 03:27:39 AM »

Quote
Endorsed by Trump , Trump does a rally for the Republican as well

No.
Logged
Coldstream
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,983
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -6.59, S: 1.20

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2019, 01:15:02 PM »

For the R, the amnesty issue would be neutralised by Trump, and they just wouldn’t talk about abortion.
Logged
Young Conservative
youngconservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2019, 12:26:52 AM »

Democrat wins, the people saying otherwise indicate how little they understand those that typically do not support their preferred party.
Logged
Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,504
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2019, 05:41:51 AM »

Such an R would have a tough time making it through the primary.  But, no, the R would win, absent a significant scandal.

Conservative Democrats lasted so long in the South because of the "seniority system".  A Democrat could be as conservative as they wanted/needed to be from the South and still rise to a committee chair (which meant money for the state/district) as long as they voted with the Democrats to organize the House.  All of that changed in the mid-1970s, when the Democratic caucus dumped three (3) Southern Democratic committee chairs (Wright Patman (D-TX) of the Banking and Finance Committee, Bob Poage (D-TX) of agriculture, and F. Edward Hebert (D-LA) of Armed Services).   This was the start of the end of the seniority system in Congress; from the 1970s on out, committee chairs had to be somewhat responsive to the Democratic caucus. 

That move had significant consequences.  One consequence was to move a number of conservative Democratic chairs to the center of the party.  Conservatives like Rep. Jamie Whitten (D-MS) who chaired Rules, and Sen John Stennis (D-MS) who chaired Armed Services, voted like moderates for the rest of their tenure (and endorsed the national ticket to boot).  Other conservative "Bourbon" Democrats retired.  What did happen in the mid-1970s is that young conservatives stopped joining the Democratic Party; they all took their chances and became Republicans.  Let's look at the conservatives in the Democratic party who were elected after 1972:

Rep. Larry McDonald (D-GA) - died in a plane crash in 1983
Rep. Andy Ireland (D-FL) - switched to the GOP in 1984
Rep. Richard Shelby (D-AL) - got elected to the Senate as a D in 1986, moderated his record, switched to the GOP in 1995
Rep. Phil Gramm (D-TX) - resigned in 1981, ran for his vacant seat as an R and won
Rep. Kent Hance (D-TX) - was defeated in a Senate primary in 1984, then switched to the GOP and won statewide office
Rep. Ralph Hall (D-TX) - routinely declined to endorse the national ticket, switched to the GOP in 2004
Rep. Charles Stenholm (D-TX) - remained a D until his 2004 defeat.  Voted for Clinton's impeachment, but moderated his record somewhat
 
These are folks who had honestly conservative records at the start of their careers.  There were other Democrats who would be considered "conservative" today that were really moderates, who moderated their record to stay in line with the caucus.  Most of these folks were defeated once people found out that they were voting against liberal legislation on the floor of the House/Senate, but voting in committee to advance such legislation.  (People found out about this in the 1990s due to the proliferation of cable TV and C-SPAN.) 

The parties are too ideological and regimented today for the scenario proposed to happen, absent some unusual factor.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,475
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2019, 11:11:55 AM »

The Republican would win.
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,683
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2019, 12:09:59 PM »

No

Democrat wins, the people saying otherwise indicate how little they understand those that typically do not support their preferred party.
It'd be reasonably close but the republican would still win by ~10 points.

Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2019, 12:10:41 PM »


Who would you vote for in this case
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,683
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2019, 12:12:17 PM »


I would probably abstain, because both candidates would have irreconcilable differences with my ideology.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2019, 12:45:30 PM »

How do they win a primary? There is zero chance that happens unless the switch parties after winning the nomination.
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,357


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 21, 2019, 12:48:22 PM »

How do they win a primary? There is zero chance that happens unless the switch parties after winning the nomination.

Just purely hypothetical just to ask if voters in AL actually care about these social/cultural issues or do they just vote based on the letter next to someone name and for whomever Trump wants them to vote for 
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 21, 2019, 01:25:12 PM »

Judging by the fact JBE in a similarly red state is in trouble as an incumbent with those positions, LOL no.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 21, 2019, 01:27:48 PM »

Judging by the fact JBE in a similarly red state is in trouble as an incumbent with those positions, LOL no.
LA is actually less red than AL by a lot and more elastic.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 21, 2019, 02:11:46 PM »

Judging by the fact JBE in a similarly red state is in trouble as an incumbent with those positions, LOL no.

Eh, JBE isn’t running against a Republican who opposes a late-term abortion ban and is in favor of amnesty or whatever. This would definitely be winnable for Democrats (although this scenario is obviously laughably unrealistic).

I also don’t get why people think JBE being pro-life doesn’t matter. Seriously, he received 47% of the vote when the other two Democratic candidates running statewide received 32%/34%. He massively outperformed his state's partisan lean in 2015 and 2019.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2019, 02:13:33 PM »

Quote
Endorsed by Trump , Trump does a rally for the Republican as well

No.

Senator Morrisey concurs. Or Senator Strange.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 21, 2019, 04:24:06 PM »

What if the Republican had a sexual relationship with a underage black boy? Roy Moore on steroids.
Logged
Lechasseur
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,757


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2019, 06:28:51 AM »

Democrat wins, the people saying otherwise indicate how little they understand those that typically do not support their preferred party.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2019, 09:43:24 AM »

GOPer would still win, because their base are total hypocrites.


This thread in 2014 could've been like:

What if a Republican had been caught saying he can grab women anywhere he wants? And if multiple rape allegations were made against this person, who never goes to church, never asked for forgiveness and can't quote a single phrase from the bible? And if this said person was the biggest deficit spender in history, who despises western allies but plays nice with Russia?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2019, 05:58:37 PM »

Judging by the fact JBE in a similarly red state is in trouble as an incumbent with those positions, LOL no.
LA is actually less red than AL by a lot and more elastic.

Thanks for proving my point then.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 14 queries.