While it is Emerson, I do agree with the poll that the race is competative. Though it stands at lean/likely R at the moment, it will be interesting to see how it evolves.
The real story is this:
The Democratic Primary for US Senate is wide open with no clear frontrunner - 74% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. Theresa Greenfield is at 11%, Michael Franken and Eddie Mauro are both tied at 6% while Kimberly Graham is at 4%.
I cant tell if these numbers are due to Emerson being Emerson, of if this is the actual status of the primary. I would believe either explanation, TBH.