IA-Emerson: Warren/Biden 23, Buttigieg 16, Sanders 13

[Gass3268]

Given how you need 15% in the first round in order to move to the second round, Sanders supporters are going to play a key role here.

[Gass3268]

Given how you need 15% in the first round in order to move to the second round, Sanders supporters are going to play a key role here.

Buttigieg, too. Getting 16% statewide would still mean falling below 15% in many individual caucus-sites (and getting 13% statewide would still mean being above 15% in many individual caucus-sites). What the 15% threshold mostly does is amplify the victories of the leading candidates at the expense of the other candidates. Someone polling at 5% or less statewide right before caucus day will end up with near-zero support showing up in the result because they will miss the 15% cutoff almost everywhere.

One thing to note is that Iowa will be providing raw vote totals for the first time in order to prevent some of the complaints from 2016.

[Gass3268]

Given how you need 15% in the first round in order to move to the second round, Sanders supporters are going to play a key role here.

Buttigieg, too. Getting 16% statewide would still mean falling below 15% in many individual caucus-sites (and getting 13% statewide would still mean being above 15% in many individual caucus-sites). What the 15% threshold mostly does is amplify the victories of the leading candidates at the expense of the other candidates. Someone polling at 5% or less statewide right before caucus day will end up with near-zero support showing up in the result because they will miss the 15% cutoff almost everywhere.

One thing to note is that Iowa will be providing raw vote totals for the first time in order to prevent some of the complaints from 2016.

Didn't know that. I don't think it changes much (depends on how the media reports the results, I suppose), although I also don't know why anyone would have been complaining in 2016 since there were only two real candidates anyway (unless the complainant was O'Malley?), so the effects of suppressing the results of weaker candidates/amplifying those of stronger candidates shouldn't have been particularly meaningful.

The Sanders camp argued last time around that they received more raw votes statewide in 2016, but received less delegates due to where those voters were geographically concentrated.

[Gass3268]

Weird that they chose to do this in the middle of the debate instead of right after it.

Memerson