Who wins LA Gov Runoff

[Mr. Smith]

Uh, Edwards is leading in every nonpartisan poll, folks.

Rispone doesn't have a chance.

Two words: Trump. Rallies.

[Frodo]

Definitely Rispone:

Trump dives into red-state races to reverse impeachment slump
The president is looking to lift three Republicans enmeshed in tough gubernatorial races despite favorable political terrain.

Though I'll stay conservative, and rate this as toss-up/lean Rispone. 

[Roll Roons]

Definitely Rispone:

Trump dives into red-state races to reverse impeachment slump
The president is looking to lift three Republicans enmeshed in tough gubernatorial races despite favorable political terrain.

Though I'll stay conservative, and rate this as toss-up/lean Rispone. 

Senators Morrissey and Rosendale and Governor Kobach can attest how getting Trump to do a rally for you is always a guaranteed ticket to victory in a red state.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm starting to have some strong gut feelings that Rispone will win. All in spite of all the conventional metrics that will point to JBE winning, approval rating, state's economy, JBE being the "right kind of Democratic", etc. I'd still be shocked if it's more than 5 points either way.

[Basil]

The South has been amenable to 'their' type of Democrats in the past. JBE's winning scenario would be to keep turnout low in the vast majority of the state while getting keeping it high in New Orleans and its suburbs. If Trump does hold a few rallies leading up to November, that's not going to be possible. Most of these voters are already loyal to the Republican brand; I don't think there's anything JBE can do to win.

[BP🌹]

And given what we saw in the jungle primary, it is ironic how this pro-life, pro-gun Democrat will end up being saved by Louisiana's urban and suburban areas, and will do poorly in the rurals.

Eh. I doubt that places like Metairie and Kenner in Jefferson Parish, where JBE ran far ahead of Clinton, are bastions of support for gun control or abortion rights. It's a very different dynamic from, say, NoVa.

[Calthrina950]

And given what we saw in the jungle primary, it is ironic how this pro-life, pro-gun Democrat will end up being saved by Louisiana's urban and suburban areas, and will do poorly in the rurals.

Eh. I doubt that places like Metairie and Kenner in Jefferson Parish, where JBE ran far ahead of Clinton, are bastions of support for gun control or abortion rights. It's a very different dynamic from, say, NoVa.

You're right, but "pro-life" and "pro-gun" positions, as we have seen, do nothing to elevate Democratic hopes in the rural areas.

[Frodo]

Definitely Rispone:

Trump dives into red-state races to reverse impeachment slump
The president is looking to lift three Republicans enmeshed in tough gubernatorial races despite favorable political terrain.

Though I'll stay conservative, and rate this as toss-up/lean Rispone. 

Senators Morrissey and Rosendale and Governor Kobach can attest how getting Trump to do a rally for you is always a guaranteed ticket to victory in a red state.

True, but it makes it more likely. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

JBE, the gap was closing after Rispone got a bump, but JBE and Beshear will win.

[Yellowhammer]

And given what we saw in the jungle primary, it is ironic how this pro-life, pro-gun Democrat will end up being saved by Louisiana's urban and suburban areas, and will do poorly in the rurals.

Eh. I doubt that places like Metairie and Kenner in Jefferson Parish, where JBE ran far ahead of Clinton, are bastions of support for gun control or abortion rights. It's a very different dynamic from, say, NoVa.

You're right, but "pro-life" and "pro-gun" positions, as we have seen, do nothing to elevate Democratic hopes in the rural areas.

These positions make it more possible for them to win, but we're beyond the era where they can use them to win in deep red areas.

[Calthrina950]

And given what we saw in the jungle primary, it is ironic how this pro-life, pro-gun Democrat will end up being saved by Louisiana's urban and suburban areas, and will do poorly in the rurals.

Eh. I doubt that places like Metairie and Kenner in Jefferson Parish, where JBE ran far ahead of Clinton, are bastions of support for gun control or abortion rights. It's a very different dynamic from, say, NoVa.

You're right, but "pro-life" and "pro-gun" positions, as we have seen, do nothing to elevate Democratic hopes in the rural areas.

These positions make it more possible for them to win, but we're beyond the era where they can use them to win in deep red areas.

That's the point I've been trying to make. Taking these kinds of stances on these issues can improve their prospects, but nowhere near enough for victory, and in the modern era, even these stances are proving to be less effective. We saw that with Edwards' collapse in the rural areas, in the jungle primary.

[Frenchrepublican]

And given what we saw in the jungle primary, it is ironic how this pro-life, pro-gun Democrat will end up being saved by Louisiana's urban and suburban areas, and will do poorly in the rurals.

Eh. I doubt that places like Metairie and Kenner in Jefferson Parish, where JBE ran far ahead of Clinton, are bastions of support for gun control or abortion rights. It's a very different dynamic from, say, NoVa.

Yeah, suburbs are not all the same

[Frenchrepublican]

Definitely Rispone:

Trump dives into red-state races to reverse impeachment slump
The president is looking to lift three Republicans enmeshed in tough gubernatorial races despite favorable political terrain.

Though I'll stay conservative, and rate this as toss-up/lean Rispone. 

Senators Morrissey and Rosendale and Governor Kobach can attest how getting Trump to do a rally for you is always a guaranteed ticket to victory in a red state.

Morrissey and Kobach are horrible candidates who have only themselves to blame. Rispone on the other hand is pretty impressive

[El Betico]

Edwards 53-47

[Gracile]

Rispone, but I think it will be a pretty narrow 50.5-49.5 victory.

[elephantower]

Rispone 53.5 JBE 46.5
There's just no plausible story for JBE to get votes that went GOP 1st round with trump constantly doing rallies

[jamestroll]

Rispone 53.5 JBE 46.5
There's just no plausible story for JBE to get votes that went GOP 1st round with trump constantly doing rallies

Was this meant to be a parody?

[Politician]

Uh, Edwards is leading in every nonpartisan poll, folks.

Rispone doesn't have a chance.

Two words: Trump. Rallies.

Three words: Bad. Hot. Takes.