https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Results_3https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_electionbased on the 2015 results vs polling, (add 1 to the D percentage in the Mason-Dixon poll to get the D percentage, third party percentage mostly overestimated, undecideds largely break R) I predict that the 2019 KY Gubernatorial results will approximately be....
Matt Bevin: 51%
Andy Beshear: 47%
Lolbertarian: 2%
Gary Johnson got around 3% in the 2016 Presidential election in Kentucky, I speculate that it'll naturally be less in an off-year election but Bevin's unpopularity might mean I'm underestimating it this time around.
I'm confident in predicting that Beshear will only get around 47%, could be a point higher or lower. I'm guessing the lolbertarian will get at least 1%. High point for the GOP is something like Beshear 46%, Bevin 53%, Lolbertarian 1%.
High point for the D's is something like Beshear 48%, Bevin 48%, Lolbertarian 4%
I have my faith that THE DON will bring 'unpopular, controversial' Bevin to victory!
Interesting thing to note is that Bruce Rauner also was an unpopular governor yet he managed to get around the same margin Trump did in 2016. I don't recall what his approval rating was in Illinois in 2018, but it does show that Bevin should be able to outperform his approval rating by a decent amount.
Poll
