Rate Kentucky

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

These debates "ain't gonna matter".

When Bevin lies as much as he does, it matters.

Do you think Kentuckians care about that? After all, Kentucky gave 63% of the vote to Donald Trump, who is a notorious liar. Many Kentucky voters are more concerned about the "caravan" and "keeping out Muslim extremists", than they are about economic issues, at least in the context of this election.

At the state and local level, Kentucky is more Democratic than many Trump states.  There are still many Trump counties that have voted Republican in Federal elections that still have Democratic local officeholders, and these officeholders will support a Democratic candidate for Governor.

The Democratic "turnoff" for Kentuckians will be, somewhat. the far-left focus of the national party's candidates, and the fact that we've got them on display so prominently this early doesn't help.  The impeachment issue doesn't help here, either.  But Bevin has his liabilities, and he's a guy that ordinary Kentuckians might not vote for, simply because they don't like him, and because they self-identify (still) as Democrats, even though they have been far from the national party for years now.

This much is true. Many of Kentucky's counties still have a majority of their voters registered as Democrats (even though most of those Democrats do not vote as such at the federal level anymore). But these numbers too, are beginning to ebb, which is another sign of the partisan realignment that is taking place. And it is true that Kentucky still has remnants of its Democratic heritage present, with the Attorney General (Beshear) and Secretary of State (Lundergan-Grimes) still in office. But those too will soon be gone.

Grimes is NOT running for re-election, so the SOS seat is obviously open. I expect the GOP to pick up both offices next Tuesday.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Republican SoS candidate has had quite a scandal. He worked for Eric Greitens and headed a dark money group for him that evaded campaign laws.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The Republican SoS candidate has had quite a scandal. He worked for Eric Greitens and headed a dark money group for him that evaded campaign laws.

So he’ll win by 0.15% less now, cool story bro.

[Frenchrepublican]

The Republican SoS candidate has had quite a scandal. He worked for Eric Greitens and headed a dark money group for him that evaded campaign laws.

So he’ll win by 0.15% less now, cool story bro.

TBH, democrats seem to have a pretty strong candidate for the S.O.S office (Heather French), so I would not rule out a situation where they keep this office

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The Republican SoS candidate has had quite a scandal. He worked for Eric Greitens and headed a dark money group for him that evaded campaign laws.

So he’ll win by 0.15% less now, cool story bro.

TBH, democrats seem to have a pretty strong candidate for the S.O.S office (Heather French), so I would not rule out a situation where they keep this office

6 more days until we get to see that people still overrate candidate quality. GOP flips this by several points at least.

[One Term Floridian]

My head tells me this is likely Bevin but my heart says lean Baby Beshear...

[MT Treasurer]

The Republican SoS candidate has had quite a scandal. He worked for Eric Greitens and headed a dark money group for him that evaded campaign laws.

So he’ll win by 0.15% less now, cool story bro.

Friendly reminder to everyone who wasn’t here in 2015: Bandit thought that Bevin voting for Peroutka in 2004 was a major scandal that would surely doom him.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Friendly reminder to everyone who wasn’t here in 2015: Bandit thought that Bevin voting for Peroutka in 2004 was a major scandal that would surely doom him.

Friendly reminder to everyone who wasn't here in 2015: Bevin actually voted for Peroutka.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Friendly reminder to everyone who wasn’t here in 2015: Bandit thought that Bevin voting for Peroutka in 2004 was a major scandal that would surely doom him.

Friendly reminder to everyone who wasn't here in 2015: Bevin actually voted for Peroutka.

Who f#cking cares, obvs not your state haha.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Who f#cking cares, obvs not your state haha.

R-TX already.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Another right-wing troll on the ignore list.

[libertpaulian]

Likely R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Another right-wing troll on the ignore list.

He's preemptively blocking me cause he doesn't want to see my gloating when he's wrong haha.

[Historybuff1788]

Tilt R to lean R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt R to lean R

There hasnt been no other polls on this race, the race is still up for grabs

[Calthrina950]

These debates "ain't gonna matter".

When Bevin lies as much as he does, it matters.

Do you think Kentuckians care about that? After all, Kentucky gave 63% of the vote to Donald Trump, who is a notorious liar. Many Kentucky voters are more concerned about the "caravan" and "keeping out Muslim extremists", than they are about economic issues, at least in the context of this election.

At the state and local level, Kentucky is more Democratic than many Trump states.  There are still many Trump counties that have voted Republican in Federal elections that still have Democratic local officeholders, and these officeholders will support a Democratic candidate for Governor.

The Democratic "turnoff" for Kentuckians will be, somewhat. the far-left focus of the national party's candidates, and the fact that we've got them on display so prominently this early doesn't help.  The impeachment issue doesn't help here, either.  But Bevin has his liabilities, and he's a guy that ordinary Kentuckians might not vote for, simply because they don't like him, and because they self-identify (still) as Democrats, even though they have been far from the national party for years now.

This much is true. Many of Kentucky's counties still have a majority of their voters registered as Democrats (even though most of those Democrats do not vote as such at the federal level anymore). But these numbers too, are beginning to ebb, which is another sign of the partisan realignment that is taking place. And it is true that Kentucky still has remnants of its Democratic heritage present, with the Attorney General (Beshear) and Secretary of State (Lundergan-Grimes) still in office. But those too will soon be gone.

Grimes is NOT running for re-election, so the SOS seat is obviously open. I expect the GOP to pick up both offices next Tuesday.

My last sentence was "But those too will soon be gone." I'm fully aware that Grimes is not running for reelection. And I expect for the GOP to pick up those offices as well.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Huh.  RRH has it at Tilt D and they’re normally pretty hackish with their predictions.

[ElectionsGuy]

Huh.  RRH has it at Tilt D and they’re normally pretty hackish with their predictions.

This is 2015 all over again. It's too bad even right-wing pundits are too afraid to rate based on fundamentals when polling is scarce and historically wrong.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not 2015, all over again, we will just see who is right next Tues

[Senator-elect Spark]

Toss-up/Tilt R. Bevin isn't looking good in the polls.

The average polling (adjusted) based on my assessment:

Bevin: 46%
Bashear: 44%
MOE +/- 3

My official prediction for the election:

Bevin (R, inc.) - 49%
Bashear (D) - 47%

[Devout Centrist]

Bevin by 10

[Frenchrepublican]

Toss-up. Bevin isn't looking good in the polls.

The average polling (adjusted) based on my assessment:

Bevin: 46%
Bashear: 44%
MOE +/- 3

My official prediction for the election:

Bevin (R, inc.) - 49%
Bashear (D) - 47%

What are you talking about ? There is only one recent public poll about the race and both candidates were tied and considering that KY polls usually overestimate democrats I don’t understand why you consider this race as toss-up

[Senator-elect Spark]

Toss-up. Bevin isn't looking good in the polls.

The average polling (adjusted) based on my assessment:

Bevin: 46%
Bashear: 44%
MOE +/- 3

My official prediction for the election:

Bevin (R, inc.) - 49%
Bashear (D) - 47%

What are you talking about ? There is only one recent public poll about the race and both candidates were tied and considering that KY polls usually overestimate democrats I don’t understand why you consider this race as toss-up

I excluded some polling from D affiliated pollsters. Bashear should be competitive, but I still think Bevin as the incumbent will prevail.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D, this will not be 2016 redux, Dems are competetive again in Appalachia aside from VA: OH, IA, and KY-Gov and Sen😃

[Fuzzy Bear]

These are the folks the Democratic Party has worked overtime to run off.  Once upon a time, not too long ago, they helped Kentucky to a 5-2 Democratic delegaton