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Poll
Question: Rate the Kentucky Governor race
#1
Lean Beshear
 
#2
Toss-up/Tilt Beshear
 
#3
Toss-up/Tilt Bevin
 
#4
Lean Bevin
 
#5
Likely Bevin
 
#6
Safe Bevin
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 122

Author Topic: Rate Kentucky  (Read 3949 times)
I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #25 on: October 28, 2019, 08:58:25 PM »

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election#Results_3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election

based on the 2015 results vs polling, (add 1 to the D percentage in the Mason-Dixon poll to get the D percentage, third party percentage mostly overestimated, undecideds largely break R) I predict that the 2019 KY Gubernatorial results will approximately be....

Matt Bevin: 51%
Andy Beshear: 47%
Lolbertarian: 2%

Gary Johnson got around 3% in the 2016 Presidential election in Kentucky, I speculate that it'll naturally be less in an off-year election but Bevin's unpopularity might mean I'm underestimating it this time around.


I'm confident in predicting that Beshear will only get around 47%, could be a point higher or lower. I'm guessing the lolbertarian will get at least 1%. High point for the GOP is something like Beshear 46%, Bevin 53%, Lolbertarian 1%.

High point for the D's is something like Beshear 48%, Bevin 48%, Lolbertarian 4%

I have my faith that THE DON will bring 'unpopular, controversial' Bevin to victory!

Interesting thing to note is that Bruce Rauner also was an unpopular governor yet he managed to get around the same margin Trump did in 2016. I don't recall what his approval rating was in Illinois in 2018, but it does show that Bevin should be able to outperform his approval rating by a decent amount.
 
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #26 on: October 28, 2019, 09:18:32 PM »

I just watched the debate. Bevin was jaw-droppingly bad.

The best part was when he likened pensions to shoplifting bread and milk. I swear I'm not making this up.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #27 on: October 28, 2019, 09:35:15 PM »

I just watched the debate. Bevin was jaw-droppingly bad.

The best part was when he likened pensions to shoplifting bread and milk. I swear I'm not making this up.

These debates "ain't gonna matter". Bevin is on his way to victory.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2019, 09:36:21 PM »


When Bevin lies as much as he does, it matters.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #29 on: October 28, 2019, 09:40:42 PM »


When Bevin lies as much as he does, it matters.

Do you think Kentuckians care about that? After all, Kentucky gave 63% of the vote to Donald Trump, who is a notorious liar. Many Kentucky voters are more concerned about the "caravan" and "keeping out Muslim extremists", than they are about economic issues, at least in the context of this election.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #30 on: October 28, 2019, 09:41:32 PM »

Tbf Donald Trump is one of the most dishonest politicians ever and he is doing very well in Kentucky.

Bevin might be worse.
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Pericles
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« Reply #31 on: October 28, 2019, 09:45:47 PM »

Tbf Donald Trump is one of the most dishonest politicians ever and he is doing very well in Kentucky.

Bevin might be worse.

Still, I doubt dishonesty itself is a deal-breaker. However perhaps there's something about how Bevin does it that means he is penalized more (and it is at least inevitable that he will do much worse than Trump in Kentucky).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #32 on: October 28, 2019, 09:47:00 PM »

I have had this race tilt Beshear for a long time. Dems need to defeat Bevin, not only to see if we can Ditch Mitch, with a McGrath upset, but make Biden relevant that we can win Appalachia again, OH, IA and VA have WWC voters, that Hilary lost IA and OH, in 2016, that we can win back
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #33 on: October 28, 2019, 10:19:23 PM »

I have had this race tilt Beshear for a long time. Dems need to defeat Bevin, not only to see if we can Ditch Mitch, with a McGrath upset, but make Biden relevant that we can win Appalachia again, OH, IA and VA have WWC voters, that Hilary lost IA and OH, in 2016, that we can win back

Kentucky home of the Cornel who distributes fried chicken featuring his secret recipe (not to be confused with Cornel West) will not vote Dem. As decades past and Southern Whites flee party of Homosex, abortion, and other such things....Bershar will.not be carried over using facts and logic. Kentucky is firmly home of McConell and Bevin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #34 on: October 28, 2019, 10:27:40 PM »

I have had this race tilt Beshear for a long time. Dems need to defeat Bevin, not only to see if we can Ditch Mitch, with a McGrath upset, but make Biden relevant that we can win Appalachia again, OH, IA and VA have WWC voters, that Hilary lost IA and OH, in 2016, that we can win back

Kentucky home of the Cornel who distributes fried chicken featuring his secret recipe (not to be confused with Cornel West) will not vote Dem. As decades past and Southern Whites flee party of Homosex, abortion, and other such things....Bershar will.not be carried over using facts and logic. Kentucky is firmly home of McConell and Bevin.

The R legislature added more money for public schools and Bevin vetoed it and with a simple majority, both Dems and R's overrode Bevin's veto. On funding k-12, the R legislature supports Beshear. FOP, who normally supports R's endorsed Stumbo and Beshear
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #35 on: October 28, 2019, 10:28:23 PM »

Bevin is Bevin.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #36 on: October 28, 2019, 10:35:30 PM »

KY is like WVa, where a simple majority can override a gov's veto, but the R legislation, already added more money to k-12, over Bevin's veto. More money by Beshear to education will be given, under R control
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #37 on: October 28, 2019, 10:44:56 PM »

I have had this race tilt Beshear for a long time. Dems need to defeat Bevin, not only to see if we can Ditch Mitch, with a McGrath upset, but make Biden relevant that we can win Appalachia again, OH, IA and VA have WWC voters, that Hilary lost IA and OH, in 2016, that we can win back

Kentucky home of the Cornel who distributes fried chicken featuring his secret recipe (not to be confused with Cornel West) will not vote Dem. As decades past and Southern Whites flee party of Homosex, abortion, and other such things....Bershar will.not be carried over using facts and logic. Kentucky is firmly home of McConell and Bevin.

The R legislature added more money for public schools and Bevin vetoed it and with a simple majority, both Dems and R's overrode Bevin's veto. On funding k-12, the R legislature supports Beshear. FOP, who normally supports R's endorsed Stumbo and Beshear

R leg vote for K 12 as it it brings reminders of 12 piece Kfc bucket  of chicken which is staples of states economy. Delectable  yet affordable...both Dem city dweller and R hill people can break bread like Jesus and enjoy bringing Hothead  political environment to temporary  simmer in which issues of the day can be discussed
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Suburbia
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« Reply #38 on: October 29, 2019, 10:40:52 PM »

Lean R.

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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #39 on: October 29, 2019, 10:58:34 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2019, 11:05:19 PM by KYWildman »

Bevin lost the debate, and Bevin is a weak, ineffective Gov like Ernie Fletcher.  Greg Stumbo and Beshear can both win next month. Leader McConnell can very well lose, as well. KY is only Lean R at the presidential level.  Statewide Dems have won

Hey look!

Somebody else on this forum who knows that Ernie Fletcher existed!

I thought I was the only one!

Hey the rest of you dumbasses who don't know about him: He was the last Republican (and one of only a few in history) to win a Kentucky Governor race before Bevin. He won in 2003 by MORE than Bevin did in 2015 (you know, the same year ANDY BESHEAR won a statewide race for AG) -- he won by about 10 points. Then he was DESTROYED by, get this, Steve BESHEAR in 2007 by about 17 points. Steve BESHEAR went on to win the 2011 race by over 20 points. This all occurred WELL after Kentucky was a solid R state at the Presidential and Senate level.

And you know what Fletcher and Bevin have in common? Both were/are EXTREMELY unpopular despite the state's national R lean. Except, get this, Bevin is MORE unpopular than Fletcher ever was! And almost every poll shows him losing!

Anyone who points to Kentucky's national TrEnD as evidence that Bevin is InEvItAblE should have their license to analyze or predict any election at any level ever again stripped from them until the end of time. They clearly know F--K ALL about the MASSIVE partisan gap that has LONG existed between Kentucky state and federal elections. Either that or they just don't care because, "LoL StUpId ReDnEcKs GoNna VoTe GoP No MaTtEr WhAt."

At this point I am honestly hoping that Beshear wins decisively more to stick it to the smug 16-year-old morons here who think they know two s--ts of anything about Kentucky than I do for the wellbeing of my own state. The latter would certainly be nice, but I honestly just want those a-holes to be f--ked more than anything else at this point.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #40 on: October 29, 2019, 11:02:38 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2019, 06:45:10 AM by Brittain33 »

I have had this race tilt Beshear for a long time. Dems need to defeat Bevin, not only to see if we can Ditch Mitch, with a McGrath upset, but make Biden relevant that we can win Appalachia again, OH, IA and VA have WWC voters, that Hilary lost IA and OH, in 2016, that we can win back

Kentucky home of the Cornel who distributes fried chicken featuring his secret recipe (not to be confused with Cornel West) will not vote Dem. As decades past and Southern Whites flee party of Homosex, abortion, and other such things....Bershar will.not be carried over using facts and logic. Kentucky is firmly home of McConell and Bevin.

The R legislature added more money for public schools and Bevin vetoed it and with a simple majority, both Dems and R's overrode Bevin's veto. On funding k-12, the R legislature supports Beshear. FOP, who normally supports R's endorsed Stumbo and Beshear

You are exactly right in that even Bevin's OWN REPUBLICAN legislature HATES his guts, and a a number of them and other members of his state party have not only distanced themselves from him, but have ACTIVELY ENDORSED BESHEAR.

Of course, you would have to know two f--king things about Kentucky politics to know this, which clearly 99% of this forum does NOT.

Quote
Kentucky home of the Cornel who distributes fried chicken featuring his secret recipe (not to be confused with Cornel West) will not vote Dem.

Did a child write this?

No seriously, did a child write this?

Because you would literally have to be less than eight years old for you to have lived in a time in which Kentucky did not vote Dem for Governor.

Also, it's spelled Colonel. And it's spelled Beshear, not "Bershar." If that was supposed to be a joke, it wasn't funny. It just made you look dumber than any Kentuckian I've ever met. All your condescending drivel of a post has done is confirm that you are indeed the ignorant edgelord who knows nothing about anything that I have long suspected you of being.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #41 on: October 29, 2019, 11:28:51 PM »

I don't think the margins will be as crazy as some others are saying, But I still expect this to be a Bevin win somewhere around 5%.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #42 on: October 29, 2019, 11:29:45 PM »

Bevin lost the debate, and Bevin is a weak, ineffective Gov like Ernie Fletcher.  Greg Stumbo and Beshear can both win next month. Leader McConnell can very well lose, as well. KY is only Lean R at the presidential level.  Statewide Dems have won

Hey look!

Somebody else on this forum who knows that Ernie Fletcher existed!

I thought I was the only one!

Hey the rest of you dumbasses who don't know about him: He was the last Republican (and one of only a few in history) to win a Kentucky Governor race before Bevin. He won in 2003 by MORE than Bevin did in 2015 (you know, the same year ANDY BESHEAR won a statewide race for AG) -- he won by about 10 points. Then he was DESTROYED by, get this, Steve BESHEAR in 2007 by about 17 points. Steve BESHEAR went on to win the 2011 race by over 20 points. This all occurred WELL after Kentucky was a solid R state at the Presidential and Senate level.

And you know what Fletcher and Bevin have in common? Both were/are EXTREMELY unpopular despite the state's national R lean. Except, get this, Bevin is MORE unpopular than Fletcher ever was! And almost every poll shows him losing!

Anyone who points to Kentucky's national TrEnD as evidence that Bevin is InEvItAblE should have their license to analyze or predict any election at any level ever again stripped from them until the end of time. They clearly know F--K ALL about the MASSIVE partisan gap that has LONG existed between Kentucky state and federal elections. Either that or they just don't care because, "LoL StUpId ReDnEcKs GoNna VoTe GoP No MaTtEr WhAt."

At this point I am honestly hoping that Beshear wins decisively more to stick it to the smug 16-year-old morons here who think they know two s--ts of anything about Kentucky than I do for the wellbeing of my own state. The latter would certainly be nice, but I honestly just want those a-holes to be f--ked more than anything else at this point.

I have had this race tilt Beshear for a long time. Dems need to defeat Bevin, not only to see if we can Ditch Mitch, with a McGrath upset, but make Biden relevant that we can win Appalachia again, OH, IA and VA have WWC voters, that Hilary lost IA and OH, in 2016, that we can win back

Kentucky home of the Cornel who distributes fried chicken featuring his secret recipe (not to be confused with Cornel West) will not vote Dem. As decades past and Southern Whites flee party of Homosex, abortion, and other such things....Bershar will.not be carried over using facts and logic. Kentucky is firmly home of McConell and Bevin.

The R legislature added more money for public schools and Bevin vetoed it and with a simple majority, both Dems and R's overrode Bevin's veto. On funding k-12, the R legislature supports Beshear. FOP, who normally supports R's endorsed Stumbo and Beshear

You are exactly right in that even Bevin's OWN REPUBLICAN legislature HATES his guts, and a a number of them and other members of his state party have not only distanced themselves from him, but have ACTIVELY ENDORSED BESHEAR.

Of course, you would have to know two f--king things about Kentucky politics to know this, which clearly 99% of this forum does NOT.

Quote
Kentucky home of the Cornel who distributes fried chicken featuring his secret recipe (not to be confused with Cornel West) will not vote Dem.

Did a child write this?

No seriously, did a child write this?

Because you would literally have to be less than eight years old for you to have lived in a time in which Kentucky did not vote Dem for Governor.

Also, it's spelled Colonel, moron. And it's spelled Beshear, not "Bershar." If that was supposed to be a joke, it wasn't funny. It just made you look dumber than any Kentuckian I've ever met. All your condescending drivel of a post has done is confirm that you are indeed the idiotic ignorant edgelord who knows nothing about anything that I have long suspected you of being.

Man, Tuesday is gonna be a rough night for you. Hopefully you've ready to break out the bourbon.
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Bojack Horseman
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« Reply #43 on: October 29, 2019, 11:55:32 PM »

Bevin lost the debate, and Bevin is a weak, ineffective Gov like Ernie Fletcher.  Greg Stumbo and Beshear can both win next month. Leader McConnell can very well lose, as well. KY is only Lean R at the presidential level.  Statewide Dems have won

Hey look!

Somebody else on this forum who knows that Ernie Fletcher existed!

I thought I was the only one!

Hey the rest of you dumbasses who don't know about him: He was the last Republican (and one of only a few in history) to win a Kentucky Governor race before Bevin. He won in 2003 by MORE than Bevin did in 2015 (you know, the same year ANDY BESHEAR won a statewide race for AG) -- he won by about 10 points. Then he was DESTROYED by, get this, Steve BESHEAR in 2007 by about 17 points. Steve BESHEAR went on to win the 2011 race by over 20 points. This all occurred WELL after Kentucky was a solid R state at the Presidential and Senate level.

And you know what Fletcher and Bevin have in common? Both were/are EXTREMELY unpopular despite the state's national R lean. Except, get this, Bevin is MORE unpopular than Fletcher ever was! And almost every poll shows him losing!

Anyone who points to Kentucky's national TrEnD as evidence that Bevin is InEvItAblE should have their license to analyze or predict any election at any level ever again stripped from them until the end of time. They clearly know F--K ALL about the MASSIVE partisan gap that has LONG existed between Kentucky state and federal elections. Either that or they just don't care because, "LoL StUpId ReDnEcKs GoNna VoTe GoP No MaTtEr WhAt."

At this point I am honestly hoping that Beshear wins decisively more to stick it to the smug 16-year-old morons here who think they know two s--ts of anything about Kentucky than I do for the wellbeing of my own state. The latter would certainly be nice, but I honestly just want those a-holes to be f--ked more than anything else at this point.

We're on the same team here, I hope Beshear wins next week as much as you do. But 2007 and 2011 were before the majority of Kentuckians and many other red states got addicted to the methamphetamine of politics, Donald Trump. I really fear that this will be a Tennessee/North Dakota 2018 redux bEcAuSe tRuMp eNdOrSeS bEvIn!!!!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #44 on: October 30, 2019, 12:54:48 AM »

Lean/Strong Bashar.

54-44-2.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #45 on: October 30, 2019, 01:29:03 AM »






#appalachianassad
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« Reply #46 on: October 30, 2019, 01:40:44 AM »

Likely Bevin, 51-45. KY gets what it deserves.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #47 on: October 30, 2019, 03:06:50 AM »


Best. answer. ever.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2019, 05:29:04 AM »


When Bevin lies as much as he does, it matters.



Do you think Kentuckians care about that? After all, Kentucky gave 63% of the vote to Donald Trump, who is a notorious liar. Many Kentucky voters are more concerned about the "caravan" and "keeping out Muslim extremists", than they are about economic issues, at least in the context of this election.

At the state and local level, Kentucky is more Democratic than many Trump states.  There are still many Trump counties that have voted Republican in Federal elections that still have Democratic local officeholders, and these officeholders will support a Democratic candidate for Governor.

The Democratic "turnoff" for Kentuckians will be, somewhat. the far-left focus of the national party's candidates, and the fact that we've got them on display so prominently this early doesn't help.  The impeachment issue doesn't help here, either.  But Bevin has his liabilities, and he's a guy that ordinary Kentuckians might not vote for, simply because they don't like him, and because they self-identify (still) as Democrats, even though they have been far from the national party for years now.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #49 on: October 30, 2019, 10:51:49 AM »


When Bevin lies as much as he does, it matters.



Do you think Kentuckians care about that? After all, Kentucky gave 63% of the vote to Donald Trump, who is a notorious liar. Many Kentucky voters are more concerned about the "caravan" and "keeping out Muslim extremists", than they are about economic issues, at least in the context of this election.

At the state and local level, Kentucky is more Democratic than many Trump states.  There are still many Trump counties that have voted Republican in Federal elections that still have Democratic local officeholders, and these officeholders will support a Democratic candidate for Governor.

The Democratic "turnoff" for Kentuckians will be, somewhat. the far-left focus of the national party's candidates, and the fact that we've got them on display so prominently this early doesn't help.  The impeachment issue doesn't help here, either.  But Bevin has his liabilities, and he's a guy that ordinary Kentuckians might not vote for, simply because they don't like him, and because they self-identify (still) as Democrats, even though they have been far from the national party for years now.

This much is true. Many of Kentucky's counties still have a majority of their voters registered as Democrats (even though most of those Democrats do not vote as such at the federal level anymore). But these numbers too, are beginning to ebb, which is another sign of the partisan realignment that is taking place. And it is true that Kentucky still has remnants of its Democratic heritage present, with the Attorney General (Beshear) and Secretary of State (Lundergan-Grimes) still in office. But those too will soon be gone.
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