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March 08, 2021, 09:36:09 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Alternative Elections (Moderators: #CriminalizeSobriety, Dereich)
  2024: Primary and General Election
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Author Topic: 2024: Primary and General Election  (Read 259 times)
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,624
United States

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« on: November 06, 2019, 06:24:47 PM »

How will it turn out? Joe Biden wins in 2020 with Stacey Abrams as VP but will only serve one term meaning both parties have an open field, here are the candidates:

Nikki Haley
Dan Crenshaw
Matt Gaetz
Mike Pence
Will Hurd
Joni Ernest
Chris Sununu
Charlie Baker
Larry Hogan
Marsha Blackburn

Jared Polis
Stacey Abrams
Tammy Duckworth
Gretchen Whitmer
Roy Cooper
Tammy Baldwin
Tulsi Gabbard
Michelle Grisham

Who wins primary, General? Maps please
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,264

Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: 4.17


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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2019, 12:03:03 PM »

Democratic primary: President Biden declined to support any candidate. Vice President Stacey Abrams has massive support in the South, Governor Gretchen Whitmer has support in Midwest

Average poll. National (possible before Iowa)
Gretchen Whitmer ~ 25%
Stacey Abrams ~ 25%
Roy Cooper 15%
Tammy Duckworth 12%
AOC 10%
Others 13%

Gretchen Whitmer wins Iowa, New Hampshire. Stacey Abrams wins Nevada and South Carolina. Gretchen Whitmer wins nomination in close race between her and VP Abrams. She chooses Abrams as her VP.

Republican primary
After Trump lost in 2020, Republicans become more moderate and anti-Trump

Fmr. VP Mike Pence wins Iowa, Larry Hogan drops out and endorsed Baker, who wins NH after that. Nikki Haley wins South Carolina. Charlie Baker wins NV

Charlie Baker wins close primary between him, Nikki Haley and Mike Pence. He chooses Nikki Haley as his running mate

General election

Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA)/Fmr. UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC) ~278 EVs; 50,4% PV
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/VP Stacey Abrams (D-GA) ~260 EVs; 48,5% PV

Note. If GOP doesn't nominate Baker/Hogan/Haley, then Whitmer or Abrams will win the election
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