Ipsos Pre/Post Debate Poll

[Zaybay]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-october-poll/

[eric82oslo]

Best debate performance:

1. Warren: 3.2
2. Sanders: 3.1
3. Pete: 3.1
4. Biden: 3.0
5. Klobuchar: 2.9
6. Harris: 2.8
7. Booker: 2.8
8. Yang: 2.7
9. Beto: 2.6
10. Castro: 2.5
11. Steyer: 2.5
12. Gabbard: 2.4


Changes in voter considerations:

1. Pete: +4.5%
2. Klobuchar: +3.6%
3. Warren: +2.6%
4. Steyer: +1.6%
5. Biden: +1.4%
6. Gabbard: +0.9%
7. Harris: +0.7%
8. Beto: +0.7%
9. Castro: +0.6%
10. Booker: +0.3%
11. Yang: +0.3%

12. Sanders: -0.3%


Favorability:

1. Warren: +3.2%
2. Klobuchar: +3.2%
3. Pete: +2.5%
4. Sanders: +2.2%
5. Biden: +1.2%
6. Steyer: +1.2%
7. Yang: +0.3%

8. Booker: -1.0%
9. Harris: -2.3%
10. Castro: -3.4%
11. Gabbard: -5.5%
12. Beto: -5.6%


Electability (vs Trump):

1. Klobuchar: +1.1%

2. Steyer: No change

3. Warren: -0.6%
4. Pete: -0.6%
5. Harris: -0.7%
6. Yang: -0.9%
7. Sanders: -1.0%
8. Booker: -1.0%
9. Gabbard: -1.0%
10. Castro: -1.6%
11. Biden: -1.8%
12. Beto: -2.9%


Average of all 4 forms of evaluation:

1. Warren: 2
2. Klobuchar: 2.5
3. Pete: 2.75

4. Steyer: 5.75
5. Sanders: 6.25
5. Biden: 6.25
7. Harris: 6.75
8. Yang: 8
9. Booker: 8.25
10. Gabbard: 9.5
11. Beto: 9.75
12. Castro: 9.75


In other words, Warren, Klobuchar and Buttigieg were the big winners of the debate. One progressive and two moderates. Probably not a good sign for Biden, if both of his two main competitors in the moderate lane get a post-debate boost in polls. However, Biden did by no means do atrociously in the debate either, he just did average or mediocre. Some strong, bright spots, and some clear fumbles which could cost him in the short or long run.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Probably not a good sign for Biden, if both of his two main competitors in the moderate lane get a post-debate boost in polls.

I feel the opposite, if moderate candidates (and Buttigieg is not moderate, he is just smart) start getting more positive attention and it becomes more than just Biden vs. Everybody, then we can start having a real debate, and moderates will win because they are right.

In terms of horse-race numbers, this would mean Biden might go down a little, but Biden+Buttigieg+Klobuchar bloc goes up.  Since Butti and Klobb aren't going to be around past Super Tuesday or so, and are likely to give their delegates to Biden at the convention, it's a win for Biden when all's said and done.  Although it might make it hard for him to win Iowa.