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November 24, 2020, 03:46:28 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  IA/NH/SC Firehouse/Optimus: IA: Warren +3, NH: Warren +7, SC: Biden +16
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Author Topic: IA/NH/SC Firehouse/Optimus: IA: Warren +3, NH: Warren +7, SC: Biden +16  (Read 573 times)
Professor Morden
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« on: October 14, 2019, 09:26:50 AM »

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus polls of IA/NH/SC, conducted Oct. 8-10:

https://github.com/optimus-forecasting-and-polling/Firehouse-0ptimus-Dem-Primary-October-2019

Iowa:
Warren 25%
Biden 22%
Buttigieg 17%
Sanders 5%
Harris 3%
Booker 2%
O’Rourke 1%
Yang 1%

NH:
Warren 25%
Biden 18%
Sanders 9%
Buttigieg 7%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Harris 2%
O’Rourke 1%

SC:
Biden 32%
Warren 16%
Sanders 8%
Harris 5%
Buttigieg 4%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
O’Rourke 1%
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Progressive Icon Bill de Blasio
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« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2019, 09:28:34 AM »

Another strong Iowa poll for Pete. Turning into a three-way race there.

Bernie needs to drop out. This is just getting sad.
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War-knocking Down Doors To Vote My Ossoff
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« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2019, 09:43:00 AM »

I think I saw someone on here say that if Biden doesn't win by 20+% in SC, that's a bad showing for him. Can anyone speak to that? What margin should Warren consider a "victory" in SC? Because it looks like the momentum in IA/NH may carry her to a relatively strong showing in SC.
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Cinemark
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« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2019, 09:47:55 AM »

I have a hard time believing those Sanders numbers.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2019, 09:51:03 AM »

I read on the NYT recently that Pete has a significant ground game in IA with the most field offices, which might explain his numbers there (and his good showing in the kernel polls).

He could surprise there and win (but will likely not keep the momentum in later states) ...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 14, 2019, 10:14:44 AM »
« Edited: October 14, 2019, 10:20:11 AM by Eraserhead »

Reminder that Democratic primary "polling" done by Marco Rubio lackeys shouldn't be taken seriously.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #6 on: October 14, 2019, 10:17:34 AM »

Reminder that Democratic primary "polling" done by Marco Rubin lackeys shouldn't be taken seriously.

They do more rigorous polling than half the "non-partisan" firms out there.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: October 14, 2019, 10:18:00 AM »

Another strong Iowa poll for Pete. Turning into a three-way race there.

Bernie needs to drop out. This is just getting sad.

lol.

The real poll of Iowa that came out has it:

Biden 22%
Warren 22%
Sanders 21%
Buttigieg 14%
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2019, 10:19:26 AM »

Reminder that Democratic primary "polling" done by Marco Rubio lackeys shouldn't be taken seriously.

They do more rigorous polling than half the "non-partisan" firms out there.

Care to elaborate on what that means?
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Gulf Coastal Elite
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« Reply #9 on: October 14, 2019, 10:20:53 AM »

Firehouse is a high-quality polling operation defined by the same kind of political savvy that led the Rubio campaign to a resounding victory in 2016, disregard at your own peril.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #10 on: October 14, 2019, 12:30:48 PM »

Reminder that Democratic primary "polling" done by Marco Rubin lackeys shouldn't be taken seriously.

They do more rigorous polling than half the "non-partisan" firms out there.

538 has done ratings of 396 pollsters, of which they have banned 7. Of the other 389 pollsters, Optimus ranks 373rd. That means that, opposed to what you say, over 95% of non-banned pollsters are actually better than Optimus at conducting their polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
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(CT) The Free North
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2019, 12:32:41 PM »

Another strong Iowa poll for Pete. Turning into a three-way race there.

Bernie needs to drop out. This is just getting sad.

To be fair, he did just have a heart attack.

I know he's 78, but i'm inclined to say while statistically not uncommon, his recent decline isn't really a full reflection of his policies and message.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2019, 01:05:51 PM »

Reminder that Democratic primary "polling" done by Marco Rubin lackeys shouldn't be taken seriously.

They do more rigorous polling than half the "non-partisan" firms out there.

538 has done ratings of 396 pollsters, of which they have banned 7. Of the other 389 pollsters, Optimus ranks 373rd. That means that, opposed to what you say, over 95% of non-banned pollsters are actually better than Optimus at conducting their polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

That's because they don't have a large sample size yet.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2019, 02:20:16 PM »

New Poll: Iowa President by Other Source on 2019-10-10

Summary:
Warren:
25%
Biden:
22%
Buttigieg:
17%
Other:
11%
Undecided:
25%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2019, 02:21:46 PM »

New Poll: New Hampshire President by Other Source on 2019-10-10

Summary:
Warren:
25%
Biden:
18%
Sanders:
9%
Buttigieg:
7%
Other:
9%
Undecided:
32%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2019, 02:23:26 PM »

New Poll: South Carolina President by Other Source on 2019-10-10

Summary:
Biden:
32%
Warren:
16%
Sanders:
8%
Other:
13%
Undecided:
31%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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