California's Central Valley

[SevenEleven]

I think this is a good breakdown for the Central Valley.

What is the CVAP and total Hispanic percentage for the districts? Is that map with 51, 52, or 53 districts?

Total percentage and CVAP for the other Central Valley seats? CA-10 and CA-16?

52 districts. Both 21 and 22 are 52% CVAP.

10 is 35.6% CVAP, while 16 is 41.6% plurality CVAP.

[I’m not Stu]

I think this is a good breakdown for the Central Valley.

What is the CVAP and total Hispanic percentage for the districts? Is that map with 51, 52, or 53 districts?

Total percentage and CVAP for the other Central Valley seats? CA-10 and CA-16?

52 districts. Both 21 and 22 are 52% CVAP.

10 is 35.6% CVAP, while 16 is 41.6% plurality CVAP.

What is the overall percentage in each of those four? Is that with 2018 population?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

[I’m not Stu]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

The pairings are not particularly desirable, but the road connections make it a necessary evil.

[SevenEleven]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

You're not alone.

[Idaho Conservative]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

The pairings are not particularly desirable, but the road connections make it a necessary evil.

except it's not necessary
source:the current map

[SevenEleven]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

The pairings are not particularly desirable, but the road connections make it a necessary evil.

except it's not necessary
source:the current map

The current map is 53 districts vs 52 and ten years population difference from what we are looking to now.

[Idaho Conservative]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

The pairings are not particularly desirable, but the road connections make it a necessary evil.

except it's not necessary
source:the current map

The current map is 53 districts vs 52 and ten years population difference from what we are looking to now.

True, but we're specifically talking about roads

[I’m not Stu]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

The pairings are not particularly desirable, but the road connections make it a necessary evil.

except it's not necessary
source:the current map

The State Senate map has Yosemite with Death Valley. Also, Death Valley with Redlands works, as I have also sometimes drawn. You also called my Death Valley to Redlands map (which is very similar to the current map) unnecessary, even though Yosemite isn’t with Death Valley on that map! I drew a new map with three Hispanic districts. CA-19 and CA-20 are VRA. CA-18 is a non-VRA mandated Hispanic access district.

CA-18, Jim Costa: 43.7% plurality HCVAP
CA-19, TJ Cox: 52.5% HCVAP
CA-20, open (Rudy Salas?): 54.7% HCVAP
CA-22, Kevin McCarthy: white district

[Idaho Conservative]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

The pairings are not particularly desirable, but the road connections make it a necessary evil.

except it's not necessary
source:the current map

The State Senate map has Yosemite with Death Valley. Also, Death Valley with Redlands works, as I have also sometimes drawn. You also called my Death Valley to Redlands map (which is very similar to the current map) unnecessary, even though Yosemite isn’t with Death Valley on that map! I drew a new map with three Hispanic districts. CA-19 and CA-20 are VRA. CA-18 is a non-VRA mandated Hispanic access district.

CA-18, Jim Costa: 45.4% plurality HCVAP
CA-19, TJ Cox: 52.3% HCVAP
CA-20, open (Rudy Salas?): 52.3% HCVAP
CA-22 (white district), Kevin McCarthy

partisan data?

[I’m not Stu]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

The pairings are not particularly desirable, but the road connections make it a necessary evil.

except it's not necessary
source:the current map

The State Senate map has Yosemite with Death Valley. Also, Death Valley with Redlands works, as I have also sometimes drawn. You also called my Death Valley to Redlands map (which is very similar to the current map) unnecessary, even though Yosemite isn’t with Death Valley on that map! I drew a new map with three Hispanic districts. CA-19 and CA-20 are VRA. CA-18 is a non-VRA mandated Hispanic access district.

CA-18, Jim Costa: 45.4% plurality HCVAP
CA-19, TJ Cox: 52.3% HCVAP
CA-20, open (Rudy Salas?): 52.3% HCVAP
CA-22 (white district), Kevin McCarthy

partisan data?

I do not use partisan data to draw majority-minority districts, only CVAP.

Partisan data:
CA-18: Clinton +12
CA-19: Clinton +3
CA-20: Clinton +7

[Idaho Conservative]

Am I the only person who hates with a passion all those districts which go across the Sierra Nevada?
I know that there are some road connections, but they feel... wrong.

The pairings are not particularly desirable, but the road connections make it a necessary evil.

except it's not necessary
source:the current map

The State Senate map has Yosemite with Death Valley. Also, Death Valley with Redlands works, as I have also sometimes drawn. You also called my Death Valley to Redlands map (which is very similar to the current map) unnecessary, even though Yosemite isn’t with Death Valley on that map! I drew a new map with three Hispanic districts. CA-19 and CA-20 are VRA. CA-18 is a non-VRA mandated Hispanic access district.

CA-18, Jim Costa: 45.4% plurality HCVAP
CA-19, TJ Cox: 52.3% HCVAP
CA-20, open (Rudy Salas?): 52.3% HCVAP
CA-22 (white district), Kevin McCarthy

partisan data?

I do not use partisan data to draw majority-minority districts, only CVAP.

Partisan data:
CA-18: Clinton +12
CA-19: Clinton +3
CA-20: Clinton +7

2/3 of those districts have a very strong chance of not performing. 

[lfromnj]

So in a bad midterm with bad turnout both districts flip R and then Maldef sues and claims they aren't D enough.

[I’m not Stu]

So in a bad midterm with bad turnout both districts flip R and then Maldef sues and claims they aren't D enough.

Demographic change will likely prevent that. Is there a requirement that they have to be Democratic enough? I thought being Hispanic and compact enough were the factors. Biden will easily win these districts. The CA-16 and CA-21 in real life are too uncompact.

[lfromnj]

So in a bad midterm with bad turnout both districts flip R and then Maldef sues and claims they aren't D enough.

Demographic change will likely prevent that. Is there a requirement that they have to be Democratic enough? I thought being Hispanic and compact enough were the factors. Biden will easily win these districts. The CA-16 and CA-21 in real life are too uncompact.

I don't believe they have to be Democrat enough but Maldef will 100% sue once they fail.

[I’m not Stu]

Is partisan composition a factor in determining what counts as legal? The Central Valley is trending Democratic. I made CA-19 and CA-20 more Democratic.

CA-18: Clinton +8, 43.7% plurality HCVAP
CA-19: Clinton +11; 52.5% HCVAP
CA-20: Clinton +13; 54.7% HCVAP