Hungarian elections and politics

[Estrella]

B I G   T E N T

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1340725484401913856

Wasn't something like this done for the most recent local elections?

Sort of, but not everywhere, Jobbik didn't take part in most of these arrangements, and in any case municipal politics in Hungary is as irrelevant as elsewhere. This, though, is a real breakthrough, assuming they somehow manage to keep the whole thing together. Even if they don't win, they'd make it impossible for Fidesz to win a two-thirds majority and it would break the sense of inevitability about Fidesz staying in power forever. The latter might not neccesarily be a good thing: a cornered rat attacks.

[Mike88]

Great news. However, who's going to led this coalition? Will it be one of the parties leaders in the coalition or an outsider?

[Estrella]

Great news. However, who's going to led this coalition? Will it be one of the parties leaders in the coalition or an outsider?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

But they still have two years to decide.

[CumbrianLefty]

This, though, is a real breakthrough, assuming they somehow manage to keep the whole thing together. Even if they don't win, they'd make it impossible for Fidesz to win a two-thirds majority and it would break the sense of inevitability about Fidesz staying in power forever. The latter might not neccesarily be a good thing: a cornered rat attacks.

As we are of course currently seeing in the US.

[Alcibiades]

Great news. However, who's going to led this coalition? Will it be one of the parties leaders in the coalition or an outsider?

Apparently there will be a primary to decide the prime ministerial candidate.

[rob in cal]

Looks like the opposition primaries will be held in two rounds in Sept and Oct. I believe for  the pm candidate and but only one round for the local candidate.  With Jobbik representing a big chunk of the potential opposition vote, I'm wondering about the durability of the opposition alliance, as they stand to the right of everybody else in the coalition, even though they have reformed from their initial ideology.

With a runoff, its pretty likely that the Jobbik preferred pm candidate would be defeated by someone else (like Budapests mayor Karacsony) but in the vote in the districts I wonder if Jobbik candidates would win alot of the nominations outside of Budapest, unless the other five opposition parties unite beforehand. Even then Jobbik probably wins plenty of nominations, so I wonder how disciplined the anti Orban electorate will be if their only choice is a Jobbik or Fidesz candidate in many districts.

In terms of the district seats, the oppostion might very well sweep all of the Budapest seats plus other urban seats, but i wonder if Fidesz will sweep up a huge amount of everything else, winning significantly more than 50% of the district seats with a bit less than 50% of the overall district vote share.

[PSOL]

Why is the Two-tailed Dog Party not apart of the wider opposition coalition? They’ve been polling 1-3% for a while now across this race.

[Estrella]

Why is the Two-tailed Dog Party not apart of the wider opposition coalition? They’ve been polling 1-3% for a while now across this race.

MKKP is very anti-Orbán and they may seem like a quirky but ultimately reasonable protest party, but in reality they're a Monty Python sketch come to life. I suspect they won't actually stand candidates, though.

Before the last parliamentary election, an MKKP candidate was interviewed on public TV. The interviewer obviously thought that politics is no laughing matter and conducted the interview accordingly.

- József Tichy-Rách, MKKP candidate in Sopron and party spokesman is our guest. Good evening.
- Cluck.
- Good evening. I read that your manifesto has 7600 pages and was co-authored by Cher. Which parts did she write?
- Cluck cluck cluck, cluck cluck.
- Promises of free beer and eternal life are your most emblematic slogans, but what would you offer to those who wouldn't like the achievements of your hypothetical government, for example to those who don't want to live forever or to breweries?
- Cluck cluck, cluck cluck cluck cluck.
- I also read in your manifesto that you want to start exporting Pulis to Jamaica. Is there demand for Hungarian dog breeds?
- Cluck, cluck cluck cluck; cluck cluck.
- Why did you choose Puli? The fur of Vizsla is obviously not similar to many Jamaicans' hair style.
- Cluck cluck. Cluck cluck, cluck cluck.
- What would Donald Trump say about your promised annexation of New York?
- Cluck cluck cluck, cluck cluck cluck. *takes out a straw*
- What are you doing right now?
- Cluck cluck, cluck cluck. *unpacks the straw*
- Ah yes, you need a straw to drink.

[Astatine]

Why is the Two-tailed Dog Party not apart of the wider opposition coalition? They’ve been polling 1-3% for a while now across this race.

MKKP is very anti-Orbán and they may seem like a quirky but ultimately reasonable protest party, but in reality they're a Monty Python sketch come to life. I suspect they won't actually stand candidates, though.

Before the last parliamentary election, an MKKP candidate was interviewed on public TV. The interviewer obviously thought that politics is no laughing matter and conducted the interview accordingly.

- József Tichy-Rách, MKKP candidate in Sopron and party spokesman is our guest. Good evening.
- Cluck.
- Good evening. I read that your manifesto has 7600 pages and was co-authored by Cher. Which parts did she write?
- Cluck cluck cluck, cluck cluck.
- Promises of free beer and eternal life are your most emblematic slogans, but what would you offer to those who wouldn't like the achievements of your hypothetical government, for example to those who don't want to live forever or to breweries?
- Cluck cluck, cluck cluck cluck cluck.
- I also read in your manifesto that you want to start exporting Pulis to Jamaica. Is there demand for Hungarian dog breeds?
- Cluck, cluck cluck cluck; cluck cluck.
- Why did you choose Puli? The fur of Vizsla is obviously not similar to many Jamaicans' hair style.
- Cluck cluck. Cluck cluck, cluck cluck.
- What would Donald Trump say about your promised annexation of New York?
- Cluck cluck cluck, cluck cluck cluck. *takes out a straw*
- What are you doing right now?
- Cluck cluck, cluck cluck. *unpacks the straw*
- Ah yes, you need a straw to drink.

Seems like a better choice than Fidesz, though.

[Flyersfan232]

Looks like the opposition primaries will be held in two rounds in Sept and Oct. I believe for  the pm candidate and but only one round for the local candidate.  With Jobbik representing a big chunk of the potential opposition vote, I'm wondering about the durability of the opposition alliance, as they stand to the right of everybody else in the coalition, even though they have reformed from their initial ideology.

With a runoff, its pretty likely that the Jobbik preferred pm candidate would be defeated by someone else (like Budapests mayor Karacsony) but in the vote in the districts I wonder if Jobbik candidates would win alot of the nominations outside of Budapest, unless the other five opposition parties unite beforehand. Even then Jobbik probably wins plenty of nominations, so I wonder how disciplined the anti Orban electorate will be if their only choice is a Jobbik or Fidesz candidate in many districts.

In terms of the district seats, the oppostion might very well sweep all of the Budapest seats plus other urban seats, but i wonder if Fidesz will sweep up a huge amount of everything else, winning significantly more than 50% of the district seats with a bit less than 50% of the overall district vote share.

The opposition government won’t last the full term

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

I am curious how nationalistic are the main opposition parties (Socialists, Momentum, DK, LMP, and Parbeszed), like how was their opinion about Trianon and Hungarians abroad?

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

@Estrella do you have some good links for opposition primary's results?

[tepoe]

@Estrella do you have some good links for opposition primary's results?

‘Official’ page (of the primary election committee formed by the six participating parties):  at elovalasztas2021.hu/eredmenyek/
The best media visualisation: at atlo.team/elovalasztaseredmenyek/
(Sorry, I only post here once in an election term, so I am still not allowed to post links.)

2nd round will be held from 10th to 16th October for the top 3 (after the withdrawal of Márky-Zay, top 2) PM candidates

[tepoe]

I am curious how nationalistic are the main opposition parties (Socialists, Momentum, DK, LMP, and Parbeszed), like how was their opinion about Trianon and Hungarians abroad?

It is a bit of a mess: I don’t know if we can measure the level of their nationalism in gerneral, apart from the fact that Jobbik and the openly EU federalist DK are at the two endpoints. But the latter two topics are mostly avoided or at least downplayed by the opposition in campaign communication, as those are clearly dominated by Fidesz for historical reasons.

Leftwing parties (MSZP and SZDSZ at that time) had opposed the simplified (ie. automatic) naturalisation of ethnic Hungarians living abroad and it led to an unsuccessfull and very bitter referendum in 2004, while Fidesz did the “dual citizenship law” and gave them the right to vote for party lists after 2010. That was widely seen as a healing gesture in Hungarian-Hungarian relations (yeah, that’s a term we use here). Fidesz also made inroads to the new electoral group with state aids, clientele building and very generous mail voting requirements.

The result is that Fidesz recieved 95,5% and 96% of the extra-Hungary mail vote in 2014 and 2018 respectively, even though Jobbik was at least as comitted to the topic than and even tough most of the other opposition parties had tried (and not suprisingly failed) to reach out for the Hungarian minorities in the neighboring countries. The only party which still regularly (but not openly) plays to tensions against Hungarians abroad is DK: they still not really support the voting rights extension and they have heated campaigns on ethnic Ukranians take advantage on the mass naturalisation and voting Fidesz. So I would say that the opposition (mínus: DK) uses soft - or in the case of Jobbik, not so soft - nationalism  in this respect, but with little to no effect. For example everybody is in favor of Székely (szekler) authonomy and even opposition municipalities are flying the Székely banner to show it, but its not something any opposition party could build on so far.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Thank you @tepoe I know for this elovalastzas page, that another one could help.
So, "the mayor's" make an agreement?

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

I have a few more questions for my northers neighbors

- Why Fekete-Gyor "blow" so badly?
- Why Marta Demeter is with Jobbik now?
- Did party lists are separate?

[tepoe]

Thank you @tepoe I know for this elovalastzas page, that another one could help.
So, "the mayor's" make an agreement?

First they did it, but they stepped back in a 5-day saga of talking about partial agreements, so now it seems that it will be a 3-way race. They have created a comfortible position for Dobrev, but I still do not think that the outcome is obvious.

[tepoe]

I have a few more questions for my northers neighbors

- Why Fekete-Gyor "blow" so badly?
- Why Marta Demeter is with Jobbik now?
- Did party lists are separate?

1. the lack of a momentum (partly for Momentum, but mainly for him). all estabilished opposition leaders are contstantly character assassinated by govt media and are up for permanent critisism from opposition media. He also inflicted some selfharm with a very bad interview and by going a bit to far on populism (by talking about Fidesz cronies going straight to jail after election).

As a result of this process, Fekete-Győr was seen as a replica of young Orbán by a large chunk of opposition voters, so there was no way for him to reach the top 3. As far as even his voters were convinced that he has no chance, they went for other candidates with less problems.

2. no clue, but as far as it’s her second move in 4 years (from MSZP to LMP in 2017 and now to Jobbik), which is somekind of record even in Hungarian politics, I suppose it has something to do with the gap between her expectations and her actual positions in the given parties. those changes only make sense if she gets a better chance of maintaning her mandate with them. Jobbik has no credible and estabilished faces in Budapest…

3. there will be a single multiparty opposition list in 2022 (if they make it there).

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

2. no clue, but as far as it’s her second move in 4 years (from MSZP to LMP in 2017 and now to Jobbik), which is somekind of record even in Hungarian politics, I suppose it has something to do with the gap between her expectations and her actual positions in the given parties. those changes only make sense if she gets a better chance of maintaning her mandate with them. Jobbik has no credible and estabilished faces in Budapest…

3. there will be a single multiparty opposition list in 2022 (if they make it there).

2. Yes, I sow that she loses very badly in her district.

3. I am very curious to see that, a lot of well-known names lose their primaries, and probably they looking for a new chance.

Thank you for your time @tepoe

[rob in cal]

So we will have a straight fight between Dobrev and Marki Zay. That strikes me as a huge difference in ideology. One would think Dobrev would be the clear favorite as Marki Zay's ideology is anti Orban conservative while Dobrev would be in the middle of the left leaning opposition, but perhaps many otherwise left leaning voters might be attracted to the idea of voting for someone who might have a better chance of defeating Orban and Fidesz.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

I saw that Momentum supported Marki-Zay, did Karacsony withdraw?

[Beagle]

So we will have a straight fight between Dobrev and Marki Zay. That strikes me as a huge difference in ideology. One would think Dobrev would be the clear favorite as Marki Zay's ideology is anti Orban conservative while Dobrev would be in the middle of the left leaning opposition, but perhaps many otherwise left leaning voters might be attracted to the idea of voting for someone who might have a better chance of defeating Orban and Fidesz.

For rather obvious reasons, Bulgarian coverage of the Hungarian elections has been focused on Dobrev (who, after all, is half-Bulgarian and was born in Sofia) and to a much lesser degree on Karácsony, with Márki-Zay dismissed as an also-ran and consigned to a sentence or two towards the end of the article. So I may be very wrong, but my impression is that ideology plays a very small part in this primary.

In my understanding, the main reason why Karácsony withdrew is to avoid a duel between Orban and Gyurcsány-by-proxy (fairly or unfairly, Dobrev is seen as an extension of her husband). The thinking is that if confronted with a choice between two crooks, the average Hungarian, however disgusted with Orban corruption and antics, will still choose the crook who brought about relative prosperity and stability than the one who pushed the country to economic ruin and chaos.

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Fekete-Gyor is dismissed?

[tepoe]

So we will have a straight fight between Dobrev and Marki Zay. That strikes me as a huge difference in ideology. One would think Dobrev would be the clear favorite as Marki Zay's ideology is anti Orban conservative while Dobrev would be in the middle of the left leaning opposition, but perhaps many otherwise left leaning voters might be attracted to the idea of voting for someone who might have a better chance of defeating Orban and Fidesz.

For rather obvious reasons, Bulgarian coverage of the Hungarian elections has been focused on Dobrev (who, after all, is half-Bulgarian and was born in Sofia) and to a much lesser degree on Karácsony, with Márki-Zay dismissed as an also-ran and consigned to a sentence or two towards the end of the article. So I may be very wrong, but my impression is that ideology plays a very small part in this primary.

In my understanding, the main reason why Karácsony withdrew is to avoid a duel between Orban and Gyurcsány-by-proxy (fairly or unfairly, Dobrev is seen as an extension of her husband). The thinking is that if confronted with a choice between two crooks, the average Hungarian, however disgusted with Orban corruption and antics, will still choose the crook who brought about relative prosperity and stability than the one who pushed the country to economic ruin and chaos.

Yes, it is mostly about the question whether it is wise to give the lead to Gurcsány and his party when you want to form an alliance with appeal to citizens and politicians who were protesting and acting against the “old left” for decades. And the other question is whether it is wise to elect a centre-right candiate for an opposition, which mostly has liberal / centre left electorate. The result will be a true test for the opposition alliance, while a Dobrev-Karácsony runoff would have been far less testing in this relation.
It was surely a difficult decision for Karácsony, but when Márki-Zay finally refused to withdraw, Karácsony had put the (potencial) capacity for reaching out to centre-to-cetre-right voters in 2022 in front of everything. That is telling, because that’s a more forward looking perspective, than any of his rivals’ strategy so far. Still, this decision can also be a mistake if his first round voters will mostly turn to Dobrev, or if the results will blow up the 6-party alliance, or if Márki-Zay will come out unelectible from the campaign for any reason.

[tepoe]

Márky-Zay won the run-off with a significant margin (57-43 at 100% counted).

atlo.team/masodikforduloeredmenyek/