Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?
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  Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?
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Poll
Question: Rate the runoff between Edwards (D) and Rispone (R) on November 16th
#1
Likely Edwards
#2
Lean Edwards
#3
Toss-Up/Tilt Edwards
#4
Toss-Up/Tilt Rispone
#5
Lean Rispone
#6
Likely Rispone
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Partisan results


Author Topic: Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?  (Read 5240 times)
KaiserDave
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« Reply #50 on: October 14, 2019, 07:46:42 PM »

The part that interests me is 2018. A very polarized year.

I think we can all give JBE a floor of 46.6%, what he got in the first round. If not 47.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #51 on: October 15, 2019, 05:46:03 PM »

I've thought about it, and I'm going with lean R. Bel Edwards got lucky to have run against Vitter in a less polarized time. He's still sort of in it and will probably do okay for a red state Democrat, but clearly partisanship is going to overwhelm whatever good Bel Edwards has done as Governor and whatever good-will he may have cultivated. It's the times we're living in now. Hell, how can I expect anything else from the state that gave us Nuke? Some states are purely out of reach for Democrats now, and vice versa. There really are two Americas-two different entities inhabiting the same space. We're like the 'Odd Couple' of countries.

 I can't emphasize enough that Vitter really f***ed up by running for Governor when he did, he would beat Bel Edwards in a landslide this year had he run and still kept his Senate seat in the years prior. His scandal is nothing now. Hell, Bel Edwards probably would never have gotten elected in the first place, thus negating this hypothetical.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #52 on: October 15, 2019, 05:54:31 PM »

For those saying Likely/Safe R, what do you make of this?

With the exception of 2014, the gains that Dems made from jungle primary to runoff suggests an Edwards win. Not saying he will win - these things could change, but it is a decent sign.

There's a huge difference between gaining from the mid-30s to the low 40s, and gaining from the high 40s to over 50%. You're going to soon deal with inflexible, partisan Republican voters. It is a very easy thing in the deep south for a Democrat to get to 40% statewide due to a large segment of blacks and a small chunk of left-of-center whites coalescing. The thing is, right-of-center whites make up close to 60% in these kinds of states.

JBE attaining 46.6% is laudable for a Democrat in the Deep South. Imagine if Marc Molinaro got 46% against Cuomo, or imagine Trump breaking 40% in New York State, or getting close to 40% in California.

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Donerail
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« Reply #53 on: October 15, 2019, 06:33:38 PM »

His given name is John Bel, the family name is just Edwards.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #54 on: October 15, 2019, 10:32:24 PM »

Lean Rispone.

I support Edwards for re-election, but I'm not optimistic.
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PSOL
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« Reply #55 on: October 15, 2019, 11:09:26 PM »

Safe Rispone. Looks like I was too optimistic last time of the Democratic party’s chances in the South.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #56 on: October 15, 2019, 11:41:18 PM »

His given name is John Bel, the family name is just Edwards.

I actually appreciate you pointing that out.
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #57 on: October 16, 2019, 12:34:33 AM »

Tilt D, the polarized nature of Louisiana keeps this closer than it probably should be bit Edwards wins by about 3-4 points with higher African American turnout putting him over the top.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #58 on: October 16, 2019, 10:19:48 AM »

Lean D, every Gov in LA, have reelected except for Blanco
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #59 on: October 16, 2019, 10:30:05 AM »

Tilt D.  Edwards will win 52-48. 
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #60 on: October 16, 2019, 03:02:02 PM »

Tilt D.  Edwards will win 52-48.  

In all seriousness, this is also my prediction (maybe closer to Lean than Tilt D, but I agree). The overreactions are silly as usual.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #61 on: October 16, 2019, 04:13:52 PM »

Tilt D.  Edwards will win 52-48.  

In all seriousness, this is also my prediction (maybe closer to Lean than Tilt D, but I agree). The overreactions are silly as usual.

You’re overestimating democrats far too much. #LAGov is not lean D and #MSGov is not toss-up either
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #62 on: October 17, 2019, 07:30:46 PM »

Pure toss-up

If you believe that JBE will be able to win a significant numbers of Abraham’s voters then JBE is favoured (I’m doubtful about that), if you believe that JBE’s numbers in the primary are close to his ceiling, then he is the underdog.
JBE needs to win ~8% of Abraham’s vote, assuming a tenth stay home. 10% if they all vote.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #63 on: October 18, 2019, 07:24:51 AM »

Exact tie. Wow!
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #64 on: October 18, 2019, 08:27:57 AM »

God has told me Edwards will win.

And yes he will win the St Charles parish.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #65 on: October 29, 2019, 08:45:09 AM »

Flipping my prediction to Rispone, 50.5-51.0 to 49.5-49.0. And honestly, I don't think much will change my mind outside of a bunch of polls in the final weeks showing Edwards up 5 points or more.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #66 on: October 29, 2019, 01:22:40 PM »

Flipping my prediction to Rispone, 50.5-51.0 to 49.5-49.0. And honestly, I don't think much will change my mind outside of a bunch of polls in the final weeks showing Edwards up 5 points or more.

My prediction is:

Eddie Rispone: 51.5%
John Bel Edwards: 48.5%

But yeah, undecideds usually break almost all for the R in red states. So I would be surprised if Edwards won again.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #67 on: October 29, 2019, 01:30:19 PM »

My prediction

Rispone 52%
Edwards 48%
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Xing
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« Reply #68 on: October 29, 2019, 01:56:43 PM »

Staying with Tilt Rispone as my rating, I'll say he wins 51-49.
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OneJ
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« Reply #69 on: October 29, 2019, 05:27:48 PM »

Toss Up/Tilt Rispone (50.5-49.5).
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Historybuff1788
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« Reply #70 on: October 30, 2019, 04:20:16 PM »

I think that Rispone will win.  I thought that Edwards would do better.
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windjammer
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« Reply #71 on: October 31, 2019, 05:29:18 PM »

On an another note,
Are LA republicans going to pick enough sites for a supermajority in the state house?
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Horus
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« Reply #72 on: November 01, 2019, 10:06:52 AM »

Rispone 52-48
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #73 on: November 01, 2019, 01:17:08 PM »

Staying at Tilt Edwards.

The prospect of an R supermajority in the legislature comes down to 2 rural seats where incumbent independents are in runoffs against R's and 3 inner suburb seats (1 in NOLA and 2 in Baton Rouge) that Trump won by 10ish or less where incumbent R's are in runoffs against D's. 

One of the rural seats is almost a certain flip as R's combined for >60% in the 1st round.   The other rural seat is being treated as a toss up, but I think it will also flip as Edwards should lose it pretty substantially. 

However, the most vulnerable suburban R seat in Baton Rouge only R+4 and includes a college campus.  I expect it to flip.  If JBE wins, he's probably winning by double digits there.  The R incumbent in an R+8 seat in New Orleans is probably a toss up.  She is well known for being the most moderate R in the legislature, but of course that kind of reputation didn't help Lance, Curbelo, Comstock, etc. in 2018.
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andjey
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« Reply #74 on: November 01, 2019, 01:31:00 PM »

Edwards 51-49
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