Louisiana Runoff: What's the rating now?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Likely R

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

[IceSpear]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

How do you think the runoff goes? 

[IceSpear]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

How do you think the runoff goes? 

I was toss up/tilt D before last night, now I'm toss up/tilt R. I'd say Rispone has the edge, but something as small as higher black turnout and/or a small slice of Abraham voters staying home could get it to a coin flip. On the other hand, I'm sure Trump is going to hold more rallies and impeachment is going to stay the dominant news story until the end of the race and drown out literally everything else, so I would not exactly be flabbergasted if the trend of Democrats improving in the runoff ends or even reverses.

[Badger]

Toss up or tilt D. Black turnout will improve for the general election, and you won't have two candidates fighting a closed Republican primary ballot. All Edwards needs is an infant's hasmal share of the Edwards vote to stay home or even flip even without black turnout increasing.

That said, for all the reasons stated here in, he could very well lose

[Roblox]

I voted toss-up/tilt Rispone. I believe it'll be close, and Edwards has a decent chance, but gun to my head I'd bet on the racist LA hicks narrowly kicking him out.

[junior chįmp]

I learned my lesson from my god awful predictions in 2018: Edwards probably loses

[jamestroll]

Statewide: Lean Democrat. 52.2% Edwards

Jefferson Parish: Solid Democratic. 55 to 56% Edwards

St Charles Parish: Lean Democratic: 52%ish Edwards

[Flyersfan232]

Edwards is still favored, Dems have won run-offs before; 2002 Landrieu v Terrell

Trump winning California since it voted republican before.

[nerd73]

Tossup/Tilt R. Polarization has definitely hurt Edwards.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Tilt D, but this is about as close to a pure tossup as you're gonna get.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Lean Rispone

[Pericles]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

How do you think the runoff goes? 

I was toss up/tilt D before last night, now I'm toss up/tilt R. I'd say Rispone has the edge, but something as small as higher black turnout and/or a small slice of Abraham voters staying home could get it to a coin flip. On the other hand, I'm sure Trump is going to hold more rallies and impeachment is going to stay the dominant news story until the end of the race and drown out literally everything else, so I would not exactly be flabbergasted if the trend of Democrats improving in the runoff ends or even reverses.

What result were you expecting?

[IceSpear]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

How do you think the runoff goes?  

I was toss up/tilt D before last night, now I'm toss up/tilt R. I'd say Rispone has the edge, but something as small as higher black turnout and/or a small slice of Abraham voters staying home could get it to a coin flip. On the other hand, I'm sure Trump is going to hold more rallies and impeachment is going to stay the dominant news story until the end of the race and drown out literally everything else, so I would not exactly be flabbergasted if the trend of Democrats improving in the runoff ends or even reverses.

What result were you expecting?

Well, there seemed to be a decent chance of JBE winning outright, even though a runoff was more likely. But if he didn't win outright, I expected him to get 48-49% and potentially for the combined Dem vote share (JBE + random black dude + fake Landrieu) to be hovering around 50%.

[Donerail]

Here's what we know so far:
-Most of the polling had JBE just shy of a runoff, in the mid to high 40s, with Rispone edging Abraham by a couple points.
-Every runoff poll (which we should believe, given their accuracy in the first round) has JBE beating Rispone fairly comfortably (>5, outside the MoE).
-The GOP went from 57% combined to 44% for Vitter last time around (part of that was Vitter being Vitter, but still, you only need 2 points here)
-Historically, Black turnout usually increases for the runoff, an effect that is likely to be pronounced in this race b/c the main contest in the primary was between two GOP candidates.
-There are at least some Abraham voters who backed him because he's been their local congressman for a bit, an effect that doesn't exist for generic R business man (particularly after a nasty primary).

In conclusion, Likely R b/c Trends.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

To quote Emperor Palpatine, "Now you will experience the FULL POWER of the Dark Side."

except you can replace 'dark side' with something more benevolent sounding

Basically Rispone and the GOP will absolutely savage JBE's reputation and flex Republican strength in anticipation for the Battles to Come next year.

[KaiserDave]

Here's what we know so far:
-Most of the polling had JBE just shy of a runoff, in the mid to high 40s, with Rispone edging Abraham by a couple points.
-Every runoff poll (which we should believe, given their accuracy in the first round) has JBE beating Rispone fairly comfortably (>5, outside the MoE).
-The GOP went from 57% combined to 44% for Vitter last time around (part of that was Vitter being Vitter, but still, you only need 2 points here)
-Historically, Black turnout usually increases for the runoff, an effect that is likely to be pronounced in this race b/c the main contest in the primary was between two GOP candidates.
-There are at least some Abraham voters who backed him because he's been their local congressman for a bit, an effect that doesn't exist for generic R business man (particularly after a nasty primary).

In conclusion, Likely R b/c Trends.

In this case I agree, but Bevin is a different matter entirely.

[TDAS04]

Tilt D

[TML]

At this moment, I would consider Edwards a slight (but not heavy) favorite, since a poll conducted earlier this month which contained a question on an Edwards/Rispone runoff suggested a result of Edwards 51 - Rispone 42, with 7% undecided.

[Skye]

-The GOP went from 57% combined to 44% for Vitter last time around (part of that was Vitter being Vitter, but still, you only need 2 points here)

More like it had almost everything to do with Vitter himself.

I voted tossup/tilt D because polls showed JBE beating Rispone in a runoff, but it looks like it'll be a tough fight. We'll have to wait and see.

[Flyersfan232]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

lamderiue rand a right leaning campaign

[Flyersfan232]

Hmmm... on the surface, 51.8%R/47.4%D in the primary suggests Lean R, but Dem turnout was anomalously low and you can probably add the ~1% the independent named Landrieu got to the Dem tally.  The state legislative races and the lesser known statewide offices were all about 2:1 R/D, which suggests that either that LA is now one of the most Republican states in the country, even downballot in an odd year, or that this was viewed as something of an R primary and it's impressive Edwards got as much of the vote as he did.  Historically, Dems tend to gain several % from the "primary" to an R vs. D runoff.  

I think it's a toss up going in and Edwards ends up winning 51/49 or so.

However, R's are now able to override vetos in the state senate and are just 2 seats short of the veto override going into the state house runoffs.  One seat is almost a sure R pickup as the 2 R's combined for 63% in the first round.  There is an R vs. I rural seat that is probably a toss up and an R vs. D runoff in an R-held Trump +8 seat in the Baton Rouge suburbs that JBE needs to carry to win statewide, so the Dem could plausibly win there and deny the supermajority even if R's flip the other 2 seats.

The downballot races caught my eye as well. Even by Louisiana standards the Democratic vote share in the LG/AG races was abysmal.

Both ag and lg both regret not running for governor

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Tossup.  Gun to my head, Rispone.

[morgieb]

For those saying Likely/Safe R, what do you make of this?

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1183808604215726080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

With the exception of 2014, the gains that Dems made from jungle primary to runoff suggests an Edwards win. Not saying he will win - these things could change, but it is a decent sign.