2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[ProgressiveModerate]

More "moderate Republicans" coming around to hold their nose and vote for Biden but want a check on him nd still have faith in the GOP. This is why I think even in a Bidenslide the senate is by no means a sure bet.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Iowa at Lean D is very premature. It's still Tilt R in my book.

Yep, I agree with you for once.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This seems a little premature, especially given IA polling (though the experts don’t ever seem to factor that in.) I’d understand making this move when he gets rid of the Toss-Up column altogether, but I definitely don’t buy IA-SEN flipping before NC-SEN, and polling doesn’t really back that up, either.

Eh, it does though. Greenfield's polling average is nearly +5 right now. I mean, it's quite possible that the usual IA polling error doesn't really materialize this year. I have no idea if it will or won't, but it's not assured.

IA polling average: Greenfield 47.09 - 43.66

NC polling average: Cunningham 46.67 - 41.55

And IA tends to be more off in Rs favor in general, though that isn't necessarily bound to be true.

What's interesting is that while Cunningham's lead is largely, there are fewer undecides in IA-Sen, though I think that's in large part because of that NYT and Emerson poll with a lot of undecided/3rd party in NC-Sen.

[ProgressiveModerate]

And I'll say again, these people have learned nothing. Even selzer was five points off in 2018
NC should be lean D at this point too by that logic. And unlike Ernst, Tillis hasn't gotten 50 in a single poll

NC should be lean D and I'm keeping IASEN at tilt D for now, but for perspective:

https://twitter.com/kilometerbryman/status/1318579488398036993
I don't expect Selzer to be consistently wrong; at least, probably not to that extent. They did not overestimate either candidate's final numbers but just did not factor in the undecided voters' Republican lean.

In general, it seems like undecides in IA break about 2 - 1 for the Republican at best. Using that rule for 2020, it seems like this senate race will be a nail-biter.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is anyone else actually quite surprised that MN-01 was that close? Given the environment this year with house losses, I would've wrote that race off, but it was closer than I would've thought. I thought we had written that district off even after 2018.

I think it goes to show how much down ballot lags behind Presidential trends. Most of Democrat's disappointments were in suburban districts whereas they actually did fine in many rural districts.