TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate. If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.
I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.
I think you are right about TX-2 for sure. It is composed of Houston suburbs as well as some closer in areas which likely have variable turnout. I definitely think with presidential year turnout TX-2 will be close to flipping to Biden. In that environment, with an inelastic electorate, Democrats should definitely invest in the district. TX-31 on the other hand has many more persuadable voters where candidate quality matters more. That one is unlikely to flip to the Dems, even though Biden will be close to Trump there as well.
