2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 168270 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1850 on: October 06, 2020, 09:04:05 AM »
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1851 on: October 06, 2020, 09:07:04 AM »
Finello is going to be dragged across the finish line by a double digit Biden win I think. She needs to prove herself with her fundraising this quarter though
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OneJ
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« Reply #1852 on: October 06, 2020, 09:32:01 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 04:03:49 AM


This race is shaping up to be sort of a sleeper race. I don't expect Espy to win but given all this new energy the campaign has been seeing recently, CHS's long-term absence from the public, and maybe even the effect covid might be having this race could quietly get closer than in 2018.
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VAR
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« Reply #1853 on: October 06, 2020, 10:07:30 AM »


PA generic ballot has been extremely stable.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1854 on: October 06, 2020, 10:13:02 AM »
Schupp (MO-02): $1.9M
Ives (IL-06): $1M
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1855 on: October 06, 2020, 10:19:10 AM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 06, 2020, 09:07:04 AM
Finello is going to be dragged across the finish line by a double digit Biden win I think. She needs to prove herself with her fundraising this quarter though

Yeah I'm interested to see what she raised. I hope she's touting the Biden endorsement. She raised $300K in the last Q, which wasn't bad considering she only had a month in there after she won the primary.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1856 on: October 06, 2020, 12:32:30 PM »

Now this is embarrassing

Also, wow
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1857 on: October 06, 2020, 12:59:02 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 12:32:30 PM

Now this is embarrassing

Also, wow



That's not disappointing at all? If anything, I'm pleasantly surprised. I was thinking Finello would do like $600K or something. Fitzpatrick has no excuse not to raise more $$$ and he's being outraised by somebody that his own pollsters say like 70% of the district doesn't even know about. Considering Finello has had to really bring her awareness up, nearly $1M is actually pretty damn great for her. Confirms for me that those Fitzpatrick +15 polls are obvious outliers.
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VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1858 on: October 06, 2020, 01:06:13 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 06, 2020, 12:59:02 PM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 12:32:30 PM

Now this is embarrassing

Also, wow



That's not disappointing at all? If anything, I'm pleasantly surprised. I was thinking Finello would do like $600K or something. Fitzpatrick has no excuse not to raise more $$$ and he's being outraised by somebody that his own pollsters say like 70% of the district doesn't even know about. Considering Finello has had to really bring her awareness up, nearly $1M is actually pretty damn great for her. Confirms for me that those Fitzpatrick +15 polls are obvious outliers.

I also expected Stephanie Bice to raise more than $1.5M. Maybe my expectations are too high.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1859 on: October 06, 2020, 01:15:14 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 01:06:13 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 06, 2020, 12:59:02 PM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 12:32:30 PM

Now this is embarrassing

Also, wow



That's not disappointing at all? If anything, I'm pleasantly surprised. I was thinking Finello would do like $600K or something. Fitzpatrick has no excuse not to raise more $$$ and he's being outraised by somebody that his own pollsters say like 70% of the district doesn't even know about. Considering Finello has had to really bring her awareness up, nearly $1M is actually pretty damn great for her. Confirms for me that those Fitzpatrick +15 polls are obvious outliers.

I also expected Stephanie Bice to raise more than $1.5M. Maybe my expectations are too high.

I'm actually shocked at Bice raising that much. I'm shocked that she outraised Horn.
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Stuart98
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« Reply #1860 on: October 06, 2020, 03:42:12 PM »
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1861 on: October 06, 2020, 04:40:14 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 01:06:13 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 06, 2020, 12:59:02 PM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 12:32:30 PM

Now this is embarrassing

Also, wow



That's not disappointing at all? If anything, I'm pleasantly surprised. I was thinking Finello would do like $600K or something. Fitzpatrick has no excuse not to raise more $$$ and he's being outraised by somebody that his own pollsters say like 70% of the district doesn't even know about. Considering Finello has had to really bring her awareness up, nearly $1M is actually pretty damn great for her. Confirms for me that those Fitzpatrick +15 polls are obvious outliers.

I also expected Stephanie Bice to raise more than $1.5M. Maybe my expectations are too high.

I think your expectations are too high. I think anything north of about $700k in a quarter is still impressive.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1862 on: October 06, 2020, 08:02:22 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2020, 08:09:00 PM by Roll Roons »
Two things:





My guess for the Senate rating change is either Maine to Lean D or South Carolina to Tossup. The most vulnerable House incumbent is Peterson or Horn.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1863 on: October 06, 2020, 08:04:05 PM »
If they move to NC to Lean R I’ll be amused
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1864 on: October 06, 2020, 09:00:03 PM »
The senate rating will be South Carolina moving to tossup.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1865 on: October 06, 2020, 09:09:37 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 10:13:02 AM
Schupp (MO-02): $1.9M
Ives (IL-06): $1M

I've yet to see a single Ives ad, but a ton of Casten ads.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1866 on: October 07, 2020, 07:42:13 AM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on October 06, 2020, 09:00:03 PM
The senate rating will be South Carolina moving to tossup.

Congratulations!
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VAR
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« Reply #1867 on: October 07, 2020, 07:55:14 AM »
Finally.
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VAR
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« Reply #1868 on: October 07, 2020, 08:01:05 AM »
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1869 on: October 07, 2020, 08:11:26 AM »
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VAR
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« Reply #1870 on: October 07, 2020, 08:22:19 AM »
CLF raised $77.4 million in Q3.

Joyce Elliott raised $1.4 million in Q3.
https://talkbusiness.net/2020/10/notes-from-the-campaign-trail-joyce-elliott-says-she-raised-1-4-million-in-q3/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1871 on: October 07, 2020, 09:52:06 AM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on October 07, 2020, 08:11:26 AM


Wow, that's big $$ for Small. Isn't that a pretty cheap district?

Also great Pasquale, I don't forsee Perry raising even over $1M tbh.
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VAR
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« Reply #1872 on: October 07, 2020, 10:43:42 AM »






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Splash
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« Reply #1873 on: October 07, 2020, 02:35:29 PM »
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #1874 on: October 07, 2020, 03:02:20 PM »
Quote from: ignore the polls, look at the ‘fundamentals’ on October 07, 2020, 07:55:14 AM
Finally.



What the hell was taking them so long? Did they consider this a 'last priority' seat in Texas or something?
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