2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[GeorgiaModerate]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

It probably was, but they didn't like what they saw.

Exactly.  A consistent trend in these internal district polls has been that the D internals release the presidential numbers, while the R internals don't.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

It probably was, but they didn't like what they saw.

If Taylor is outrunning Trump by double digits, that is pretty impressive and seems like something they'd want to publicise.

True, but at the same time, it would probably infuriate Trump.

[kph14]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

It probably was, but they didn't like what they saw.

If Taylor is outrunning Trump by double digits, that is pretty impressive and seems like something they'd want to publicise.

It's an odd poll. Incumbent just at 48% in an internal. Also 8% for the libertarian candidate?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This poll appears not to have been posted yet, but Stephen Lynch's primary is being overlooked amidst a discourse focused on MA-01, MA-04 and MA-SEN:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-e117-db69-a777-fdff5c580000

August 8-9, 2020
1038 likely voters
MoE: 3.04%

Stephen Lynch 39%
Robbie Goldstein 32%
Undecided 29%

The pollster is called Lincoln Park Strategies. They're keen to give us some surveys on this new divide as we crawl towards primary day; perhaps the voters of MA-08 really will be breaking the habit of electing Lynch.

[OneJ]

This poll appears not to have been posted yet, but Stephen Lynch's primary is being overlooked amidst a discourse focused on MA-01, MA-04 and MA-SEN:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-e117-db69-a777-fdff5c580000

August 8-9, 2020
1038 likely voters
MoE: 3.04%

Stephen Lynch 39%
Robbie Goldstein 32%
Undecided 29%

The pollster is called Lincoln Park Strategies. They're keen to give us some surveys on this new divide as we crawl towards primary day; perhaps the voters of MA-08 really will be breaking the habit of electing Lynch.

Wow. I can't say I'm too surprised by this tbh. I'm pretty surprised how much people have been sleeping on this race giving how much upset potential there is in the first place. The big red flag for Lynch was his poor fundraising and his challenger was outraising him. We could be seeing two (!) successful primaries of incumbents the same night in MA.

[Brittain33]

No one has been able to come close to Lynch before. I would be very surprised if this is the year. Lynch can certainly piggyback on the Kennedy campaign for turnout.

[Epaminondas]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

The presidential poll result would have stolen Taylor's thunder.
Didn't Trump win Texas-3 by 14? It's a certainty that his margin has been at least halved, if not lost completely.

Taylor's PR departement will have feared that nobody would give one whit about a congressman winning by 13 if the top of the ticket is collapsing.
It's not as if the GOP house will hold any legislative power until 2024 anyway, so what's left to sell his case to fundraisers?

[SnowLabrador]

NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.

[SnowLabrador]

The latest WSJ poll had Biden +9, but the GCB was only D +5. Why do you guys think that is?

My guess: Voters see Biden as a sure bet to win, but want Republicans in Congress to "check" him. Idiots.

[ProgressiveModerate]

More "moderate Republicans" coming around to hold their nose and vote for Biden but want a check on him nd still have faith in the GOP. This is why I think even in a Bidenslide the senate is by no means a sure bet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The latest WSJ poll had Biden +9, but the GCB was only D +5. Why do you guys think that is?

My guess: Voters see Biden as a sure bet to win, but want Republicans in Congress to "check" him. Idiots.

Obama wasn't ahead by this much until Oct, the Recession was in late October,  so Biden/Harris are ahead of where Obama was

You are a naysayer. But not as bad as Rs whom think GA, MT, KS and IA are unwinnable due to fact Ds cant win more than 50 seats and we won 8 seats in 2008 Recession.  Not only that Kelly, Copper, Whitmerr and Bullock have 60 percent approvals

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Your explanation could make some sense (see the suburbs in 2016 downballot races looking more like 2012 than 2016-PRES), but I believe a recent FOX News poll asked voters who they thought would win, and a majority (or significant plurality), picked Trump, even as Biden was up on the traditional horse-race poll.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am once again asking for you to focus on the averages.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

[VAR]

I am once again asking for you to focus on the averages.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Interestingly, “high-quality“ live-caller polls have shown a tighter GCB than online polls.

[YE]

It really isn’t.

[Brittain33]

The latest WSJ poll had Biden +9, but the GCB was only D +5. Why do you guys think that is?

My guess: Voters see Biden as a sure bet to win, but want Republicans in Congress to "check" him. Idiots.

The problem is that this is a change of +1 for Democrats in the WSJ/NBC poll since 1 month ago. The GCB isn't tightening for this pollster.  

To be fair, the average has tightened a point or two from where it was 1-2 months ago, back to what it was when COVID started. Perhaps it's the absence of mass protests and rioting?

[Brittain33]

NBC news/WSJ has the GCB at only D+5. It's clearly tightening, which is very worrying. Trump is winning the messaging war.

NBC News/WSJ was D+4 one month ago.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The thing is, a plurality of voters still believe Trump will win the election. I have a hard time believing there will be any significant disparity between the support for Biden and the support for congressional Dems as long as that is the attitude of Americans.

[Tekken_Guy]

It seems like more of an outlier. A lot of people may be afraid that a check on Biden could end up as unchecked power for Trump.

[Mr.Phips]

It seems like more of an outlier. A lot of people may be afraid that a check on Biden could end up as unchecked power for Trump.

Which is what Dems need be reminding people.  That’s exactly what happened in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ is more of an outlier. YouGov has been steady at 8-10 for months.

[VAR]

NBC/WSJ is more of an outlier. YouGov has been steady at 8-10 for months.

Generic ballot (NPR/Marist/PBS Newshour)

Democratic 49%
Republican 43%

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-TABLES_202008121039.pdf

Was D 48/40.

Another outlier.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

https://twitter.com/InsideElections/status/1294348072512888832?s=20

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

The way I look at internals like these is if you have numbers like this, your in a good position. But he likely won't even get half of that margin even if he wins. Split ticket voting is rarer and rarer

[VAR]

CA-50 (J. Wallin Opinion Research - probably an internal)

Campa-Najjar 42.3%
Issa 38.9%

https://static.politico.com/e4/c1/36749f924e3da50c59adff1969fb/ca-50-poll-redacted.jpg

[Landslide Lyndon]

CA-50 (J. Wallin Opinion Research - probably an internal)

Campa-Najjar 42.3%
Issa 38.9%

https://static.politico.com/e4/c1/36749f924e3da50c59adff1969fb/ca-50-poll-redacted.jpg

Decimals and too many undecided = trash poll.