2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Mr.Phips]

NJ-03
CLF / R internal

Andy Kim (D) 45%
David Richter (R) 42%

Tragic for an R internal

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/gop-polls-hows-dead-heat-in-nj-3-race-between-kim-richter/

If Kim can get through 2020, he will likely be around for a while as redistricting probably takes most of Republican heavy Ocean county out of the district and exchanges it for a chunk of Mercer county (Trenton).

[VAR]

Economist/YouGov
July 19-21
1222 RV
MoE: 3.2%

Democratic 47% (-1)
Republican 40%
Other 1%
Not sure 9%
Would not vote 2%

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/8uw05wqpg2/econTabReport.pdf

[Gass3268]

Tlaib is looking safe against Jones:

https://twitter.com/MIRSnews/status/1285980959247081472?s=20

[Lisa's voting Biden]

TX-03 Dem internal has Taylor only up by 6 (43-37)

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/aed3a683729c2491b960858786cd6db0/TX-3%20Viability%20Survey%20Memo%20F07.22.20.pdf

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1286076484638183431

Cook is updating Senate ratings tomorrow, and apparently all changes are in favor of Democrats.

My guess:
-AZ and CO move from Tossup to Lean D
-Iowa and possibly GA regular from Lean R to Tossup
-Maybe TX from Likely R to Lean

[Xing]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

I mean, hopefully that won’t happen like in 2016, but it’s a little soon to rule it out. Republicans really only starting using that strategy in October.

[WD]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

I mean, hopefully that won’t happen like in 2016, but it’s a little soon to rule it out. Republicans really only starting using that strategy in October.

I’m 99% sure the average voters opinion of the Republican Party is lower now than it was in 2016. Given how much Trump is despised by the electorate, outside of his base, (especially among independents), I’m pretty skeptical that they’ll be will to vote for a Republican Congress.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1285955392825065473?s=20

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1281657969533431810?s=20

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1286155956355768320?s=20

[WD]

SC-02? W H A T

[Landslide Lyndon]

What's up with Ron Kind? His opponent raised a lot of money or something else?

[lfromnj]

What's up with Ron Kind? His opponent raised a lot of money or something else?

Yup he out raised kind. Came out of left field.

[Mr.Phips]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

I mean, hopefully that won’t happen like in 2016, but it’s a little soon to rule it out. Republicans really only starting using that strategy in October.

Democrats can’t keep letting Republicans pull this every four years like groundhog’s day. Republicans are perfectly fine with it when they have the trifecta themselves.  According to them, it’s only bad when Democrats have a “blank check”?

[Landslide Lyndon]

This strategy won't work for the simple reason that Republicans did nothing during the last four years to differentiate themselves from Trump. Voters at focus groups aren't just pissed at Trump, they are pissed with everyone having an R next to their names and want to flush them down the toilet. It's no coincidence that in almost every senate race the Republican running gets almost the same vote share as Trump's approval rating.

[Pollster]

SC-02? W H A T

Adair Boroughs has raised significant money and outraised Wilson.

The district voted about the same as KS-02 and KY-06 - Trump got 56% of the vote here in 2016, so its hovering around the 55% mark where Dems managed to be competitive in 2018. A competitive race with a well-funded challenger isn't too far-fetched.

[Mr.Phips]

SC-02? W H A T

Adair Boroughs has raised significant money and outraised Wilson.

The district voted about the same as KS-02 and KY-06 - Trump got 56% of the vote here in 2016, so its hovering around the 55% mark where Dems managed to be competitive in 2018. A competitive race with a well-funded challenger isn't too far-fetched.

Both KY-06 and KS-02 are more elastic than SC-02, which is dominated by inflexibly Republican Lexington county.

[VAR]

GQR Research
July 15-19
1000 RV
MoE: 3.1%

Democratic 53%
Republican 46%
Other 1%

https://accountabletech.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Accountable-Tech-071920-FQ.pdf

[Gracile]

Cook Political just made these Senate race rating changes:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1286415752686338049

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Cook Political just made these Senate race rating changes:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1286415752686338049

Georgia to Tossup?!?! I thought Amy Walter worked there and she said it just wasn’t there yet?

[Gass3268]

Cook Political just made these Senate race rating changes:

https://twitter.com/JessicaTaylor/status/1286415752686338049

Georgia to Tossup?!?! I thought Amy Walter worked there and she said it just wasn’t there yet?

She’s no longer on the Senate beat. They still have Colorado as a toss up however.

[n1240]

Colorado being in the same category as Georgia, Iowa, and Montana is absolutely criminal. Very lousy ratings from Cook Political!

[SnowLabrador]

Colorado should be Lean if not Likely D, and Iowa should still be Lean R.

[Oryxslayer]

Colorado being in the same category as Georgia, Iowa, and Montana is absolutely criminal. Very lousy ratings from Cook Political!

If anyone read the piece, she basically explains that Colorado would be Lean D if it had anything close to the level of polling we have from Arizona. I tend not to like Cook when it comes to the senate, but they are rather clear here.

[VAR]

NY-01
PPP/Goroff internal
July 14-15
1100 RV
MoE: 3.0%

Zeldin 47%
Goroff 40%
Undecided 13%

https://www.newsday.com/opinion/newsday-opinion-the-point-newsletter-1.47205902

[Gracile]

Colorado being in the same category as Georgia, Iowa, and Montana is absolutely criminal. Very lousy ratings from Cook Political!

If anyone read the piece, she basically explains that Colorado would be Lean D if it had anything close to the level of polling we have from Arizona. I tend not to like Cook when it comes to the senate, but they are rather clear here.

That's a pretty silly justification to leave it in Tossup. Based on fundamentals alone it should be moved to Lean D - especially if Arizona is going to be moved to Lean D. Also, the little lower quality polling we have seen has shown Hickenlooper well ahead.

[Brittain33]

Iowa should still be Lean R.

I thought there were at least two polls with Ernst trailing Greenfield.