2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272515655980498944

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272515655980498944

Clinton won PA-01 by 2% in 2016. Casey won by 15% in 2018 and Wolf by 20%. So we're seeing Casey (statewide +13) margins here from Biden.

Meanwhile, if Fitz is only at 40%, not too good for him considering the trends and that Finnello is barely known. Dems just significantly outvoted Reps in PA-01 too.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Moving this over to the correct thread:

NY-01 Democratic Primary poll
https://drive.google.com/file/d/18mQUAfqwAohyjXPRnAuIjQXM7qgPzsR9/view

Global Strategy Group/Nancy Goroff internal
May 26-28, 2020
401 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Gershon 29%
Goroff 27%
Fleming 17%
Fischer 1%

"Early April" results

Gershon 33%
Fleming 16%
Goroff 11%
Fischer 1%

[Pollster]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

Dems lead in the GCB in 3/4 CDs.

The full breakdown:

1st Congressional District: 48% Democrat, 42% Republican  (D+6)
2nd Congressional District: 53% Democrat, 35% Republican  (D+18)
3rd Congressional District: 52% Democrat, 36% Republican  (D+16)
4th Congressional District: 35% Democrat, 57% Republican  (R+22)

I do wonder what Dallas County must look like if the Dem margin in IA-03 is that big.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

KY-04 R primary poll
https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CfGPAC_KY_CD4_BrushfireSummary_200612.pdf
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth
June 10-11, 2020
411 likely Republican primary voters
MoE: 4.9%

Massie 77%
McMurty 11%
Undecided 12%

[wbrocks67]

The actual poll doesn't look very good for Fitz... he's underwater, the GCB is D+9, and Finello's awareness is even lower than you might expect. If she can't get her name out there, she can win this thing

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272648235891515392

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/6/ak_house_poll/AK_House_Poll.pptx
AK-at-large
Data for Progress
May 21-27, 2020
589 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Alyse Galvin 43%
Don Young 42%
Undecided 15%

[lfromnj]

Can people just stop looking at the generic ballot for congressional districts in selzer polls. Selzer is a pretty solid pollster even if they have started to struggle a bit during the Trump era.  However the district crosstab is just that, it's a cross tab that isnt even weighted properly.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FiveThirtyEight's put up a congressional poll done by ALG research for a partisan client in MI-03

June 3-7, 2020
589 likely voters
MoE not given

Hillary Scholten  (D) 40%
Lynn Afendoulis  (R) 40%

Hillary Scholten (D) 40%
Peter Meijier (R) 39%

Edit: this poll was a Hillary Scholten internal. Link: https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272888027669561349

Edit 2: the MoE has been given by Politico (it's 4.4%).

[Pollster]

A Data for Progress poll of Alaska has Alyse Galvin leading Don Young 43/42.

Young's approval is 45/41.

[Upstater]

FiveThirtyEight's put up a congressional poll done by ALG research for a partisan client in MI-03

June 3-7, 2020
589 likely voters
MoE not given

Hillary Scholten  (D) 40%
Lynn Afendoulis  (R) 40%

Hillary Scholten (D) 40%
Peter Meijier (R) 39%

Edit: this poll was a Hillary Scholten internal. Link: https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272888027669561349

Is Amash not running?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FiveThirtyEight's put up a congressional poll done by ALG research for a partisan client in MI-03

June 3-7, 2020
589 likely voters
MoE not given

Hillary Scholten  (D) 40%
Lynn Afendoulis  (R) 40%

Hillary Scholten (D) 40%
Peter Meijier (R) 39%

Edit: this poll was a Hillary Scholten internal. Link: https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1272888027669561349

Is Amash not running?

Not in the Republican primary, unless he intends to file as a write-in candidate.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB has been ridiculously stable all year long at D +8/9

YouGov has it at D+9 this week

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/vgqowgynze/econTabReport.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

If you need a good laugh, McLOLghlin just released a poll that found generic ballot D+1.

[wbrocks67]

If you need a good laugh, McLOLghlin just released a poll that found generic ballot D+1.

ugh and its gonna f**k with the 538 tracker

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1273352072407195654

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1273352072407195654

Kind of rooting for Green here. I want the GOP brand to crash in Georgia.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1273352072407195654

When we say we wanted more women in Congress, this isn't what we meant.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1273352072407195654

Kind of rooting for Green here. I want the GOP brand to crash in Georgia.

Yeah, I’m fine with her being a leading member of the state’s GOP bench

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/June%202020%20Survey.pdf
Saint Anselm College (NH) generic ballot
June 13-16, 2020

Statewide:
1072 likely voters
MoE 3%

D 46%
R 43%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

CD1:
567 likely voters
MoE 4.1%

D 48%
R 42%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

CD2:
505 likely voters
MoE 4.4%

D 44%
R 44%
Other 3%
Undecided 9%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

538's released another internal, this one for Dan Feehan for Congress from Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group:

Sampling period: June 9-13, 2020
Sample size: 601 likely voters
MoE not yet given

Dan Feehan 43%
Jim Hagedorn 42%

I suspect its weightings don't account for slightly depopulated suburbia in parts of the Twin Cities near where riots took place.

Edit: full details released here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V-IsvPR5K26cm_lLtH9uJKuWiwDvtBm0/view

MoE: 4.1%

Undecided 15%

[Lisa's voting Biden]

We Ask America has done a GOP primary poll for ME-02:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1274082245209456652?s=20

[Lisa's voting Biden]

WPA Intel publishes an FL-03 GOP primary poll:
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1274086929957556230?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://thewashingtonsentinel.com/free-speech-candidate-laura-loomer-opens-9-point-lead-in-florida-congressional-race/

Laura Loomer's internal in FL-21 (published on June 20, but with no sampling period/size/MoE details otherwise released) has the following:

PRIMARY
51% Loomer
4% "Nearest challenger"
Apparently an 11% improvement for her on where the race was in January

GENERAL
65% Loomer (R)
19% Frankel (D)
Edit: correction - this topline is just for independents. Loomer has a "9 point lead" in the GE.

[lfromnj]

https://thewashingtonsentinel.com/free-speech-candidate-laura-loomer-opens-9-point-lead-in-florida-congressional-race/

Laura Loomer's internal in FL-21 (published on June 20, but with no sampling period/size/MoE details otherwise released) has the following:

PRIMARY
51% Loomer
4% "Nearest challenger"
Apparently an 11% improvement for her on where the race was in January

GENERAL
65% Loomer (R)
19% Frankel (D)

LOL.