2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Bidenworth2020]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf

Horn leads "Republican Challenger" 42-41. For reference, Biden is winning this seat 50-44 according to this poll.

[Pericles]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf

Horn leads "Republican Challenger" 42-41. For reference, Biden is winning this seat 50-44 according to this poll.

A bad sign for her to be running behind Biden by 5 points. Trump did win her district by 13 points, so I would be surprised if Biden won it comfortably. However, maybe he could given it also had a strong trend in 2016.

[walleye26]

Yeah, Horn is in a tough fight, but if Biden is up heavy here and the Dems are doing well both she and Torres Small will have gotten lucky.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200608_OK.pdf

Horn leads "Republican Challenger" 42-41. For reference, Biden is winning this seat 50-44 according to this poll.

A bad sign for her to be running behind Biden by 5 points. Trump did win her district by 13 points, so I would be surprised if Biden won it comfortably. However, maybe he could given it also had a strong trend in 2016.

Small subsample size (98 likely voters), so not too much to read into this.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Edmondson won by double digits Horn's district in the gubernatorial election, so a slight Biden win isn't all that surprising.

[Pollster]

It's a ridiculously small subsample that frankly shouldn't be overanalyzed, but even Inhofe is running even with a generic Democrat in OK-05. Democratic strength might be hardening here.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Other Sanders endorsements today besides Charles Booker's:

Cori Bush (MO-1) - AOC hasn't supported her this time and Lacy Clay should win, but she is at least a serious challenger and he can't take the win for granted.
Samelys Lopez (NY-15) - HP move given how far behind she is and the risk of Diaz beating Torres, who is almost as progressive and even backed Sanders.
Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) - a sign of Engel continuing to lose control of his primary, I think.
Mondaire Jones (NY-17).
Mike Siegel (TX-10) - probably the frontrunner in his primary.

Romanoff has a lot of Colorado state legislature endorsements but the big name progressives out of state don't seem to care for him.

[Storr]

Other Sanders endorsements today besides Charles Booker's:

Cori Bush (MO-1) - AOC hasn't supported her this time and Lacy Clay should win, but she is at least a serious challenger and he can't take the win for granted.
Samelys Lopez (NY-15) - HP move given how far behind she is and the risk of Diaz beating Torres, who is almost as progressive and even backed Sanders.
Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) - a sign of Engel continuing to lose control of his primary, I think.
Mondaire Jones (NY-17).
Mike Siegel (TX-10) - probably the frontrunner in his primary.

Romanoff has a lot of Colorado state legislature endorsements but the big name progressives out of state don't seem to care for him.

I doubt Bernie wants to piss off his likely future Senate colleague by endorsing his way behind in the polls primary opponent.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://beckygrossman.com/new-poll-shows-becky-grossman-lead-race-open-seat-ma-04
Beacon Research (R)/Becky Grossman Democrat for Congress internal

May 26-30
501 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Undecided 16%
Grossman 13%
Auchincloss 7%
Mermell 7%
Sigel 4%
Khazei 4%
Cavell 2%
Zannetos 1%
Other 1%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've deleted the TN Senate poll as I found the old thread, but there are some old (and some new) primary polls that haven't been posted in here or elsewhere on the forum to my knowledge:

https://yellowhammernews.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/AL-CD-1-GOP-Primary-Poll-Memo-Carl-Nov.pdf
AL-01
Public Opinion Strategies (R)/Carl for Alabama

August 2019:

Hightower 27%
Pringle 14%
Carl 13%
Lambert 2%
Castorani N/A

November 18-19, 2019:
300 voters
MoE 5.66%

Hightower 29%
Carl 20%
Pringle 14%
Lambert 2%
Castorani 0%


https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CfGPAC_GA_CD7_PollingMemo_200513-1.pdf
GA-07
WPA Intelligence (R)/Club for Growth
April 14-15, 2020

McCormick 33%
Unterman 18%
Homrich 8%
Other candidates 6%
Undecided 35%

May 11-12, 2020
408 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

McCormick 41%
Unterman 23%
Homrich 7%
Other candidates 5%
Undecided 24%


https://capitolfax.com/2020/02/05/mclaughlin-poll-oberweis-at-46-percent-in-five-way-primary/?link_id=57&can_id=c5a6a0dd9889d57e6cc1ac7836fa384c&source=email-morning-digest-competitive-race-to-succeed-longtime-gop-congressman-begins-to-take-shape&email_referrer=email_718713&email_subject=morning-digest-competitive-race-to-succeed-longtime-gop-congressman-begins-to-take-shape
IL-14
McLaughlin/Oberweis internal
January 28-29, 2020
300 likely voters
MoE: 5.6%

Oberweis 46%
Rezin 16%
Lauf 6%
Martel 2%
Gradel 2%
Undecided 29%


https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/CFG_KY_4_Hybrid_Poll_Memo_190710.pdf
KY-04
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth
July 8-9, 2019
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Massie 64%
Moser 10%
Undecided 26%

Definitely for Massie 50%
Definitely against Massie 8%
Would consider another candidate 36%
Don't know 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-2116-d911-aff1-afd7352d0000
KY-04
Public Opinion Strategies (R)/Massie Internal
February 4 - 6, 2020
300 voters
MoE: 5.66%

Massie 71%
McMurty 3%


https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/CFG_KY4_PollingMemo_2004291.pdf
KY-04
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth
April 27-28, 2020
407 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Massie 70%
McMurty 13%
Undecided 17%


https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/plames-cd3-campaign-moves-forward-despite-convention-loss/article_61b6d10c-62de-11ea-a604-17ef9da1c2e2.html
NM-03
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research/Plame internal
February 11-16, 2020
500 likely voters

Plame 21%
Fernandez 11%
Serna 7%

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1197407453568290817
NY-02
WPA Intelligence (R)/Club for Growth
November 17-18, 2019
400 likely voters

Lara Trump 53%
Lazio 19%
Undecided 28%


https://www.scribd.com/document/421294082/nypoll
NY-27
Tel Opinion
July 31 - August 1, 2019
500 voters

Collins 46%
Jacobs 26%
Parlato 4%

Bellavia 33%
Jacobs 24%
Mychajliw 6%
Hawley 5%
Ortt 5%
Parlato 2%

Bellavia 41%
Jacobs 27%
Parlato 6%

Jacobs 39%
Mychajliw 6%
Parlato 6%


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1229629088975015936
PA-10
GBAO Strategies/De Pasquale internal
Feb 5-9, 2020

DePasquale 68%
Brier 16%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a0e1-d209-a1ef-a4ffbdd10000
TX-12
Remington/Congressional Leadership Fund
December 17-18, 2019
686 likely voters
MoE: 3.7%

Granger 62%
Putnam 16%
Undecided 22%

https://bigtreepac.com/big-tree-pac-polling-memo/
TX-32
Optimus/Big Tree PAC
January 28-30, 2020
971 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%

(With leaners)
Collins 14.1%
McLendon 9.6%
Tokar 2%
Sackett 1.4%
Hollis 1.1%
Undecided 72%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

WPA Intelligence (R)/Club for Growth
November 17-18, 2019
400 likely voters

Lara Trump 53%
Lazio 19%
Undecided 28%

What?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

WPA Intelligence (R)/Club for Growth
November 17-18, 2019
400 likely voters

Lara Trump 53%
Lazio 19%
Undecided 28%

What?

Neither are running, but they polled it as a hypothetical. The Trump dynasty would seem to have at least one easy glide path to Congress.

[wbrocks67]

Can't imagine how Abigail and Max aren't very safe right now. Their R challengers are raising little $ as well

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1271202519566475267

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1271217206945361931

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, Scott Taylor raised $124K in VA-02. Elaine Luria raised $400K+

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1271204346881961984

[Gracile]

Cook Political has moved AK-SEN from Solid Republican to Likely Republican:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alaska-senate/alaska-senate-moves-likely-republican

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/nataliewsj/status/1271453775002316800

[Oryxslayer]

Reoccurring problem for Freitas and...maybe Bigfoot man avoids his primary? It will come down to the court's and election board to decide on whether to forgive their sins or not, since the paperwork has now been hand delivered a few days late.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1271551373591687170?s=20

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Reoccurring problem for Freitas and...maybe Bigfoot man avoids his primary? It will come down to the court's and election board to decide on whether to forgive their sins or not, since the paperwork has now been hand delivered a few days late.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1271551373591687170?s=20

If Freitas misses the primary ballot again for the same reason, that would be amazing

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23908-bob-stevenson-takes-lead-in-republican-contest-to-replace-rob-bishop-in-congress

UT-01 Republican primary poll
Y2 Analytics/UtahPolicy/KUTV News
May 16-18, 2020
127 likely primary voters
MoE: 8.7%

Stevenson 38%
Witt 26%
Gibson 20%
Moore 16%

Edit: another one!

https://www.standard.net/news/government/poll-in-u-s-house-race-shows-tight-race-among-gopers-many-still-undecided/article_1983d360-4b93-5d7f-b8ef-2bb414df99f1.html
Dan Jones & Associates/Elect Blake Moore (internal)
June 2-9, 2020
417 likely voters
Moore 16%
Stevenson 16%
Gibson 13%
Witt 7%
Undecided 48%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-24 Democratic Primary

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1272293208236740608
GBAO Strategies/Dana Balter internal poll
June 4-7, 2020

Dana Balter 60%
Francis Conole 31%

[Zaybay]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

Dems lead in the GCB in 3/4 CDs.

The full breakdown:

1st Congressional District: 48% Democrat, 42% Republican  (D+6)
2nd Congressional District: 53% Democrat, 35% Republican  (D+18)
3rd Congressional District: 52% Democrat, 36% Republican  (D+16)
4th Congressional District: 35% Democrat, 57% Republican  (R+22)

[Minnesota Mike]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

Dems lead in the GCB in 3/4 CDs.

The full breakdown:

1st Congressional District: 48% Democrat, 42% Republican  (D+6)
2nd Congressional District: 53% Democrat, 35% Republican  (D+18)
3rd Congressional District: 52% Democrat, 36% Republican  (D+16)
4th Congressional District: 35% Democrat, 57% Republican  (R+22)

Generic Congressional D's (D+5) doing a little better than Greenfield (D+3).

[redjohn]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2020/06/14/iowa-poll-likely-voters-prefer-democrats-3-4-u-s-house-districts/3175725001/

Dems lead in the GCB in 3/4 CDs.

The full breakdown:

1st Congressional District: 48% Democrat, 42% Republican  (D+6)
2nd Congressional District: 53% Democrat, 35% Republican  (D+18)
3rd Congressional District: 52% Democrat, 36% Republican  (D+16)
4th Congressional District: 35% Democrat, 57% Republican  (R+22)

Margin-wise, these are the "shifts" since 2018:
CD-1: D+1
CD-2: D+6
CD-3: D+14
CD-4: R+19

Looking very positive for Democrats in Iowa, not something I thought I'd be saying in the 2020 cycle. Democrats building on their margins in the first three CDs in a Presidential year would be incredible.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Democrats are doing this well in Iowa (remember that there is every reason to be skeptical of early Iowa polls), then Trump and Republicans are already beyond f—ed

[libertpaulian]

IOWA IS STILL A SWING STATE, SUCKERS!!!