2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Gracile]

Was just a thought. She is facing primary battles and refused to pay party dues, severing required relations with the Democratic Party.

She has a ton of money + incumbency and is facing a divided field. AOC is not going anywhere.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Was just a thought. She is facing primary battles and refused to pay party dues, severing required relations with the Democratic Party.

Her opponent is a corporatist DINO from CNBC

[Gracile]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/b2783bd6491979b5b79f17e1fc3dc043/TX-23%20General%20Election%20Survey%20Key%20Findings%20Memo.pdf

TX-23 Remington Poll (R):

Gina Ortiz-Jones (D) 45%
Tony Gonzales (R) 43%

[Dipper Josh]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/b2783bd6491979b5b79f17e1fc3dc043/TX-23%20General%20Election%20Survey%20Key%20Findings%20Memo.pdf

TX-23 Remington Poll (R):

Gina Ortiz-Jones (D) 45%
Tony Gonzales (R) 43%

Looks like the Republicans might need Beto's help securing that seat again.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/b2783bd6491979b5b79f17e1fc3dc043/TX-23%20General%20Election%20Survey%20Key%20Findings%20Memo.pdf

TX-23 Remington Poll (R):

Gina Ortiz-Jones (D) 45%
Tony Gonzales (R) 43%

So likely D.

[Oryxslayer]

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/b2783bd6491979b5b79f17e1fc3dc043/TX-23%20General%20Election%20Survey%20Key%20Findings%20Memo.pdf

TX-23 Remington Poll (R):

Gina Ortiz-Jones (D) 45%
Tony Gonzales (R) 43%

I mean it's basically GG if right now the republicans are behind in this seat. SW Hispanics for a multitude of reasons are usually filtered out by polls this early, only tuning it closer to the election. This, after all, is why the NYT polls for TX23 in 2018 ended up so hard in the GOPs favor, leading the dem donors to abandon what would eventually be a marginal seat. 

[Pollster]

Dennis Taylor, a former Brownback cabinet official, makes a last minute entry into the KS-02 GOP primary against Watkins/La Turner, former state Rep. Tom Love jumped into the large Republican field fighting to take on Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in the 3rd congressional district.

[Gracile]

Democrats are up 9 points (52%-43%) in the latest generic ballot from Monmouth:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_060320.pdf/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

We have an NY-15 poll from Data for Progress:
http://filesforprogress.org/memos/ny-15-2020-june.pdf

Sampling dates: May 21-24
Sample size: 323 likely voters

Diaz Sr 22%
Torres 20%
Blake 6%
Rodriguez 6%
Viverito 6%
Lopez 2%
Ortiz 1%
Pabon 1%
Ramos 1%
Undecided 34%

I think Torres narrowly pulls ahead by the end of all this, in part thanks to undecided voters breaking in his favour.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

A GOP internal from last December for NM-02 was apparently released today. It shows Herrell +2, 48-46.
https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1268033655932366849?s=20

[Lisa's voting Biden]

NY-01 Democrat Primary (Fleming Internal):
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268386592118497281?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NY-01 Democrat Primary (Fleming Internal):
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268386592118497281?s=20

I've unearthed a previous poll for NY-01:

https://www.newsday.com/opinion/newsday-opinion-the-point-newsletter-1.41950750
This is a GBAO strategies internal for Perry Gershon from January 27-30 this year (with a MoE of 4.4% and a sample size of 500 likely voters).

Gershon: 42%
Fleming: 21%
Gorroff: 9%

[wbrocks67]

A GOP internal from last December for NM-02 was apparently released today. It shows Herrell +2, 48-46.
https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1268033655932366849?s=20

am i missing something? why do they think a poll from December is relevant now?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A GOP internal from last December for NM-02 was apparently released today. It shows Herrell +2, 48-46.
https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1268033655932366849?s=20

am i missing something? why do they think a poll from December is relevant now?

It might be the last in which Torres-Small wasn't leading this candidate.

[Pollster]

Gottheimer leads primary challenger Arati Kreibich 64-17.

[We Live in Black and White]

We have an NY-15 poll from Data for Progress:
http://filesforprogress.org/memos/ny-15-2020-june.pdf

Sampling dates: May 21-24
Sample size: 323 likely voters

Diaz Sr 22%
Torres 20%
Blake 6%
Rodriguez 6%
Viverito 6%
Lopez 2%
Ortiz 1%
Pabon 1%
Ramos 1%
Undecided 34%

I think Torres narrowly pulls ahead by the end of all this, in part thanks to undecided voters breaking in his favour.

Not to mention that those numbers were sampled before Diaz was an a**hole about the Floyd protests.

[lfromnj]

We have an NY-15 poll from Data for Progress:
http://filesforprogress.org/memos/ny-15-2020-june.pdf

Sampling dates: May 21-24
Sample size: 323 likely voters

Diaz Sr 22%
Torres 20%
Blake 6%
Rodriguez 6%
Viverito 6%
Lopez 2%
Ortiz 1%
Pabon 1%
Ramos 1%
Undecided 34%

I think Torres narrowly pulls ahead by the end of all this, in part thanks to undecided voters breaking in his favour.

Not to mention that those numbers were sampled before Diaz was an a**hole about the Floyd protests.

Do you mean the engel video?
That was his son Ruben Diaz jr.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1269615519369498626

[wbrocks67]

2020 GCB continues to look identical to 2018.

[Brittain33]

2020 GCB continues to look identical to 2018.

The NBC News poll takes the Dems to 49.0% at 538 for the first time. For comparison, that didn't happen in 2018 until late September, but undecideds were higher then so I'm not disagreeing with your general point.

[libertpaulian]

Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.

The final result is often quoted as a consequence of D+9% environment, but wasn't it actually a D+7% environment because of the effects of uncontested seats? That is not going to show up in GCB polls this time.

[Epaminondas]

Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.

The final result is often quoted as a consequence of D+9% environment, but wasn't it actually a D+7% environment because of the effects of uncontested seats? That is not going to show up in GCB polls this time.

Actually 2018 was only D+6 if you correct for all uncontested seats.
I think it was poster Dr. RI who did the calculations.

250 seats in the house would be such icing on the cake entering a redistricting year.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.

Yes, I think the Dems will net 10-15.

[tagimaucia]

Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.

The final result is often quoted as a consequence of D+9% environment, but wasn't it actually a D+7% environment because of the effects of uncontested seats? That is not going to show up in GCB polls this time.

Actually 2018 was only D+6 if you correct for all uncontested seats.
I think it was poster Dr. RI who did the calculations.

250 seats in the house would be such icing on the cake entering a redistricting year.

The democratic data firm Catalist says it was D+7.2 when you account for uncontested seats on both sides. There’s probably no one exactly right way to calculate that though.