2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 164028 times)
Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #900 on: May 22, 2020, 05:18:41 PM »

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #901 on: May 22, 2020, 07:05:08 PM »



Hills getting involved into the races probably to grift lol.
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Gracile
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« Reply #902 on: May 22, 2020, 07:15:21 PM »

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #903 on: May 22, 2020, 07:22:24 PM »



Hills getting involved into the races probably to grift lol.

She's been through a lot. She has a right to speak.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #904 on: May 22, 2020, 08:10:45 PM »

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.

Absolutely 100%.



It is pretty incredible that I would only rate 13/36 federal house districts as Safe R in Texas. I will be completely honest, places like TX 25 and TX 6 are not flipping this time, but they are not Safe R. If this map was left in place indefinitely (it wont be) I would expect Democrats to have a 23-13 dem delegation by 2031. It would be a total dummymander (it already is sort of even now) Even places like TX 26 and TX 17 would shift out of the Safe R column (though I'd still give them to the GOP even then).
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Storr
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« Reply #905 on: May 22, 2020, 09:49:04 PM »

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.

Absolutely 100%.



It is pretty incredible that I would only rate 13/36 federal house districts as Safe R in Texas. I will be completely honest, places like TX 25 and TX 6 are not flipping this time, but they are not Safe R. If this map was left in place indefinitely (it wont be) I would expect Democrats to have a 23-13 dem delegation by 2031. It would be a total dummymander (it already is sort of even now) Even places like TX 26 and TX 17 would shift out of the Safe R column (though I'd still give them to the GOP even then).
Another sleeper Texas seat is the 27th which is already majority Hispanic (40% non-Hispanic White).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #906 on: May 22, 2020, 10:05:23 PM »

And no, Golden is not likely to win re election. It's possible but he's definitely the underdog at this point. The voters in the district are not progressives like the bernie cult insisted they were. You really think that Golden is going to win when they put a picture of him next to Kamala Harris in one of their dumb ads and claim "Jared Golden endorsed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who want to overturn hyde amendment and allow your taxpayer dollars to be used to fund infanticide." And it doesnt matter how moderate he is, if he endorses Biden/Harris, he'll be toast.

In every wave election (which is what 2020 is shaping up to be) you’ll see incumbents or even challengers of the winning party (significantly) outperforming their district's/state's partisan baseline and/or unfavorable trends. People like Golden could easily win in 2020 (especially given how badly [but unsurprisingly] the NRCC seems to have bungled candidate recruitment and resource allocation this year), but they’re obviously going to face an uphill battle or be (close to) DOA in 2022. Even someone like Scholten could conceivably win this fall, but unless the Republican Party is going the way of the Whigs, he’d get wiped off the face of the earth in 2022.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #907 on: May 22, 2020, 10:14:01 PM »

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.

Absolutely 100%.



It is pretty incredible that I would only rate 13/36 federal house districts as Safe R in Texas. I will be completely honest, places like TX 25 and TX 6 are not flipping this time, but they are not Safe R. If this map was left in place indefinitely (it wont be) I would expect Democrats to have a 23-13 dem delegation by 2031. It would be a total dummymander (it already is sort of even now) Even places like TX 26 and TX 17 would shift out of the Safe R column (though I'd still give them to the GOP even then).
Another sleeper Texas seat is the 27th which is already majority Hispanic (40% non-Hispanic White).

I am going to have to disagree. It does not match the profile of recent flips, it is not trending D, and no real recent elections have been close.
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Sbane
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« Reply #908 on: May 23, 2020, 12:19:51 PM »

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.

I think you are right about TX-2 for sure. It is composed of Houston suburbs as well as some closer in areas which likely have variable turnout. I definitely think with presidential year turnout TX-2 will be close to flipping to Biden. In that environment, with an inelastic electorate, Democrats should definitely invest in the district. TX-31 on the other hand has many more persuadable voters where candidate quality matters more. That one is unlikely to flip to the Dems, even though Biden will be close to Trump there as well.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #909 on: May 23, 2020, 01:30:55 PM »

TX-31 and to an arguably lesser degree TX-2 are Safe R b/c we couldn’t recruit a credible candidate.  If Mike Collier ran in TX-2 and Hager ran in TX-31 then that would be a different conversation, but they didn’t and no one else stepped up to the plate.

I think you are overstating how much candidate quality makes a difference. As long as the Democrats have someone halfway competent then they should at least run close to Biden. Obviously these districts are not really prime targets in the way TX-24 and TX-22 are (and to TX-10 and TX-21 to an extent), but the direction they're headed in is clear. Putting them at Safe R might be going a bit far.

The thing is that we don't have halfway competent candidates in TX-2 or especially not in TX-31.  Now Sbane made a good point re: TX-2, but even so, it's a long shot at best.  Also, I'd argue TX-21 flips before TX-22 although both are great targets and could definitely flip in November.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #910 on: May 23, 2020, 03:47:41 PM »

Damn, would have been nice to beat Crenshaw before he's redistricted into a safe seat for 2022. Now we're definitely going to have to put up with a horrible AOC vs. Crenshaw meme candidate presidential election at some point.
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Libertas Vel Mors
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« Reply #911 on: May 23, 2020, 07:28:06 PM »

Crenshaw is such a RINO, ugh
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #912 on: May 23, 2020, 10:02:36 PM »

Why did Elisa Cardnell drop out?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #913 on: May 24, 2020, 11:26:00 AM »

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/24/democrats-iowa-senate-ernst-greenfield-275141

CO 47, AZ 48, NC 49, ME 50, IA 51; consequently,  Ds are getting behind Greenfield to cement a 51 seat majority. With both ME and IA both tied 43 to 42, Ds arent thinking that Ernst is no longer an unbeatable titan and want to beat her, with IA 4 JD Scholten taking out King and securing IA 1,2, 3.  Beating Ernst will give Dems 51 seats
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #914 on: May 26, 2020, 01:51:27 AM »


I had a very good laugh. Solidly conservative Republican is a RINO???!!!)))))
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #915 on: May 26, 2020, 08:56:39 AM »
« Edited: May 26, 2020, 09:15:48 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

I've found some Y2 analytics polls for UT-04 which I'm pretty sure have gone unnoticed here up until now:

Mar 21-30 polls:
https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23599-poll-suggests-republican-race-in-4th-district-looks-to-be-a-wide-open-contest

Democratic primary
98 likely voters
MoE 9.9%

McAdams 97%
Beckstrand 3%

Beckstrand was eliminated at the convention shortly afterwards.

Republican primary
112 likely voters
MoE 9.3%

McFarland 31%
Owens 22%
Anderson 17%
Coleman 17%
Biesinger 6%
Christensen 6%
Thompson 1%

May 16-18 poll:
https://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/23896-burgess-owens-leads-a-tight-four-way-race-for-the-gop-nomination-in-4th-congressional-district

Republican primary
148 likely voters
MoE 8.1%

Owens 36%
McFarland 28%
Coleman 23%
Christensen 13%

IIRC the rest of the Republican candidates were eliminated at their convention prior to the sampling dates of the May poll.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #916 on: May 26, 2020, 09:16:40 AM »

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Roblox
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« Reply #917 on: May 26, 2020, 10:42:51 AM »



Really hope Fernandez wins-not only because of her policies, but also because of my suspicion of former CIA people lol.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #918 on: May 26, 2020, 12:41:39 PM »



Anyone but Plame!
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Beet
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« Reply #919 on: May 26, 2020, 12:54:18 PM »


She finished a distant 2nd in round 1, wasn't raising enough money to win the runoff, and wanted people to have time to unite around Sima Ladjevardian's long-shot bid, especially as primaries are delayed this year. Class act.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #920 on: May 26, 2020, 08:32:15 PM »


She finished a distant 2nd in round 1, wasn't raising enough money to win the runoff, and wanted people to have time to unite around Sima Ladjevardian's long-shot bid, especially as primaries are delayed this year. Class act.
That makes sense
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morgieb
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« Reply #921 on: May 27, 2020, 03:12:37 AM »


Oh thank christ. Plame would be a Bachmann-esque disaster, and that's not even considering that she's to Fernandez's right!
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Balsanator03
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« Reply #922 on: May 29, 2020, 09:13:51 PM »

Imagine AOC becoming a one term representative?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #923 on: May 30, 2020, 09:46:47 AM »

Imagine AOC becoming a one term representative?

What is this in response to?
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Balsanator03
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« Reply #924 on: May 30, 2020, 10:06:15 AM »

Was just a thought. She is facing primary battles and refused to pay party dues, severing required relations with the Democratic Party.
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