2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Roll Roons]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323110499995820034

Damn, you beat me to it!

Possibilities:
CA-01: Safe R to Likely R
CA-10: Likely D to Safe D
MI-08: Lean D to Likely D
MI-11: Lean D to Likely D
MT-AL: Lean R to Tossup
NE-01: Safe R to Likely R
NJ-05: Likely D to Safe D
PA-17: Lean D to Likely D
TX-24: Tossup to Lean D
SC-02: Safe R to Likely

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323035037055520769

This is probably just an overly cautious move, but I've long had a feeling that Bustos would win reelection this year by a closer margin than 2016/2018 and the late spending here reinforces that view.

[LimoLiberal]

My predictions...

UT-04: Tossup -> Lean D
TX-24: Tossup -> Lean D (this one is pretty much guaranteed given Wasserman's Texas suburbs fetish)
FL-27: Likely D -> Lean D
TX-06: Likely R -> Lean R
MO-02: Tossup -> Lean D (Wasserman loves Schupp)
NJ-07: Lean D -> Likely D

One of AZ-01, OR-04, IL-17, and WI-03 from Lean D to Tossup

and finally...

MN-07: Tossup -> Lean R

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323035037055520769

This is probably just an overly cautious move, but I've long had a feeling that Bustos would win reelection this year by a closer margin than 2016/2018 and the late spending here reinforces that view.

Yeah, because she's now facing an actually credible opponent rather than a lunatic conspiracy nut. I feel like politicians who "go national", as she did by becoming DCCC chair, often see their standing weakened at home - look at Tom Daschle in 2004, Mitch in 2008, or Paul Ryan in 2012, when he ran for VP and had the closest general election of his career.

[wbrocks67]

They still have PA-01 at Lean R. Wonder if it hits tossup today.

[Roll Roons]

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/230616

Looks like they're as follows:
AR-02 - Lean R to Tossup
NJ-03 - Lean D to Likely D
NJ-05 - Likely D to Safe D
NY-18 - Likely D to Safe D
PA-17 - Lean D to Likely D
TX-10 - Lean R to Tossup
TX-24 - Tossup to Lean D
TX-31 - Likely R to Lean R

(Let's go Fitz!!!)

Guess we just have to wait and see what Sabato says today.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/230616

Looks like they're as follows:
AR-02 - Lean R to Tossup
NJ-03 - Lean D to Likely D
NJ-05 - Likely D to Safe D
NY-18 - Likely D to Safe D
PA-17 - Lean D to Likely D
TX-10 - Lean R to Tossup
TX-24 - Tossup to Lean D
TX-31 - Likely R to Lean R

(Let's go Fitz!!!)

Guess we just have to wait and see what Sabato says today.

TX-31 is long overdue

[wbrocks67]

I'm shocked they still haven't moved PA-01. It's clearly a tossup. We'll see...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GoP seats are flipping in PA

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1323260162854035456

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1323260162854035456

They have had CA-25 at Lean R for months. I fear they will just leave it there in the final analysis, even though it looks to be Lean D.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1323260162854035456

They have had CA-25 at Lean R for months. I fear they will just leave it there in the final analysis, even though it looks to be Lean D.

Yeah that’s one that I would be very surprised if it didn’t flip.  Biden is going to win there by at least 10, which will be almost impossible for Garcia to overcome.

[Roll Roons]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21320//

Sabato made his final calls!

House: R gain MN-07, D gain AZ-06, GA-07, IN-05, MN-01, NJ-02, NC-02, NC-06, OH-01, PA-10, TX-23, TX-24.

Senate: R gain AL, D gain the core four, both GA seats go to a runoff.

[new_patomic]

Something hilarious about moving IA from Lean-Dem to Lean-Rep without even stopping at Toss-Up

[Oryxslayer]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21320//

Final calls!

R gain MN-07, D gain AZ-06, GA-07, IN-05, MN-01, NJ-02, NC-02, NC-06, OH-01, PA-10, TX-23, TX-24.

The big difference between Sabato and Cook this cycle I feel is Wasserman believes in Texas and has pushed accordingly, whereas Sabato doesn't, or is willing to take the L at every level if it happens.

[Gracile]

These ratings seem quite bearish on Texas. Also, I'm surprised that the pundits seem to think MN-01 is as competitive as they're making it out to be given the 2016/2018 results.

[WD]

lol @ Dems winning MN-01 but not TX-22

[SnowLabrador]

Something hilarious about moving IA from Lean-Dem to Lean-Rep without even stopping at Toss-Up

It's justified. For some reason, there was a lot of late movement towards Ernst.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

[xavier110]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21320//

Sabato made his final calls!

House: R gain MN-07, D gain AZ-06, GA-07, IN-05, MN-01, NJ-02, NC-02, NC-06, OH-01, PA-10, TX-23, TX-24.

Senate: R gain AL, D gain the core four, both GA seats go to a runoff.

I live in the district and can't wrap my head around Tipirneni winning AZ-06. I wouldn't predict it.

And if she somehow does, she easily loses against a normal Republican in '22.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11

We've seen multiple polls showing Eastman drastically underperforming Biden. It would not be shocking to see her lose while Biden carries it.

[Oryxslayer]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21320//

Sabato made his final calls!

House: R gain MN-07, D gain AZ-06, GA-07, IN-05, MN-01, NJ-02, NC-02, NC-06, OH-01, PA-10, TX-23, TX-24.

Senate: R gain AL, D gain the core four, both GA seats go to a runoff.

I live in the district and can't wrap my head around Tipirneni winning AZ-06. I wouldn't predict it.

And if she somehow does, she easily loses against a normal Republican in '22.

I mean, given that AZ-10 will slide into the metro area, theres a chance she gets left in a better position after redistricting.

[wbrocks67]

Glad PA-10 is finally being seen as Lean D

[Xing]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Yeah, that's a joke. OH-01 before seats like TX-22 is bad enough, but MN-01!? I think TX-22 would go Democratic by double digits before MN-01 flips.