2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Roll Roons]

So, how many more rounds of ratings changes should we expect from Wasserman/Sabato?

Sabato's final will either be tomorrow or Monday. No idea about Cook.

Yeah, looks like Sabato made his final calls the day before in 2016 and 2018. Maybe he'll make a few changes tomorrow.

[Lief 🗽]

The fact that Andy Kim is giving his money away really speaks to how dramatically the GOP House campaign has collapsed.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1321653389361664000

[new_patomic]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

Perhaps people are rightfully too scared to do this after what happened in 2016.

Yeah, while I don't deny that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters out there, I don't think we're going to see a significant overperformance by Congressional Republicans compared to Trump in part because of this.

A lack of ticket-splitters, however, wouldn't be great news for Democrats in AK, KS, MT, or SC.

The alternative is that there is ticket-splitting, but it's just canceling itself out in national/state numbers.

[Roll Roons]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

Perhaps people are rightfully too scared to do this after what happened in 2016.

Yeah, while I don't deny that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters out there, I don't think we're going to see a significant overperformance by Congressional Republicans compared to Trump in part because of this.

A lack of ticket-splitters, however, wouldn't be great news for Democrats in AK, KS, MT, or SC.

The alternative is that there is ticket-splitting, but it's just canceling itself out in national/state numbers.

Exactly. For instance, we can probably guess that Dan Crenshaw and Brian Fitzpatrick will far outperform Trump, while Jared Golden and Collin Peterson will far outperform Biden.

[new_patomic]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

Perhaps people are rightfully too scared to do this after what happened in 2016.

Yeah, while I don't deny that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters out there, I don't think we're going to see a significant overperformance by Congressional Republicans compared to Trump in part because of this.

A lack of ticket-splitters, however, wouldn't be great news for Democrats in AK, KS, MT, or SC.

The alternative is that there is ticket-splitting, but it's just canceling itself out in national/state numbers.

Exactly. For instance, we can probably guess that Dan Crenshaw and Brian Fitzpatrick will far outperform Trump, while Jared Golden and Collin Peterson will far outperform Biden.

I always think back to how Duckworth got a similar margin as Clinton in 2016 (just 2 percent difference), but vastly outperformed Clinton in Southern Illinois while running behind her in the suburbs. Point being aggregate figures can mask some notable disparities at the local level.

[Roll Roons]

The fact that Andy Kim is giving his money away really speaks to how dramatically the GOP House campaign has collapsed.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1321653389361664000

We could have been favored to hold this seat but MacArthur had to be an idiot and take the fall on AHCA when a safe seat member could have done it. Though I will say that though I'm from the opposite party, Andy Kim is a very nice guy.

[Roll Roons]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

Perhaps people are rightfully too scared to do this after what happened in 2016.

Yeah, while I don't deny that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters out there, I don't think we're going to see a significant overperformance by Congressional Republicans compared to Trump in part because of this.

A lack of ticket-splitters, however, wouldn't be great news for Democrats in AK, KS, MT, or SC.

The alternative is that there is ticket-splitting, but it's just canceling itself out in national/state numbers.

Exactly. For instance, we can probably guess that Dan Crenshaw and Brian Fitzpatrick will far outperform Trump, while Jared Golden and Collin Peterson will far outperform Biden.

I always think back to how Duckworth got a similar margin as Clinton in 2016 (just 2 percent difference), but vastly outperformed Clinton in Southern Illinois while running behind her Mark Kirk ran ahead of Trump in the suburbs. Point being aggregate figures can mask some notable disparities at the local level.

FTFY Sorry, hard to resist the temptation to stan for Mark Kirk (and Bob Dold) when the opportunity comes along.

[politicallefty]

isn't this pointing to a double digit pickup of seats?

Yes. ~15 sounds right to me.

I made a comment a couple pages back that if things were on the same trajectory (and so far that seems to be the case), we could be looking at +15-20 or possibly even more. I think Democrats will break 250 seats in the House.

With all those new changes from IE, they're now apparently predicting a +14-20 seat gain for Democrats. For reference, they predicted +25-35 ("with larger gains possible) in 2018. I'm not searching for every year, but Stu Rothenberg himself noted today that they predicted +55-65 for Republicans in 2010.

So, how many more rounds of ratings changes should we expect from Wasserman/Sabato?

Sabato's final will either be tomorrow or Monday. No idea about Cook.

Yeah, looks like Sabato made his final calls the day before in 2016 and 2018. Maybe he'll make a few changes tomorrow.

According to the latest article just up, Monday will indeed be the day for final picks. They've also just moved both Georgia Senate races from Lean R to Toss-up.

[Xing]

They've also just moved both Georgia Senate races from Lean R to Toss-up.

About time.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The fact that Andy Kim is giving his money away really speaks to how dramatically the GOP House campaign has collapsed.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1321653389361664000

We could have been favored to hold this seat but MacArthur had to be an idiot and take the fall on AHCA when a safe seat member could have done it. Though I will say that though I'm from the opposite party, Andy Kim is a very nice guy.

McArthur's seat was considered safe back then.

[wbrocks67]

As if no one could have predicted this, the 538 GCB average is virtually what it was in 2018.

2018 final avg: D+8.7
2020 avg right now: D+8.6

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1321792521249431556

Cook shifted Mississippi Senate from Safe R to Likely. Looks like they won't be changing any more Senate ratings.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1321792521249431556

Cook shifted Mississippi Senate from Safe R to Likely. Looks like they won't be changing any more Senate ratings.

Espy is a great candidate and Mississippi doesn't deserve him, but I will be elated if somehow he just squeaks by in a wave.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1321792521249431556

Cook shifted Mississippi Senate from Safe R to Likely. Looks like they won't be changing any more Senate ratings.

Espy is a great candidate and Mississippi doesn't deserve him, but I will be elated if somehow he just squeaks by in a wave.

Why not?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1321792521249431556

Cook shifted Mississippi Senate from Safe R to Likely. Looks like they won't be changing any more Senate ratings.

Espy is a great candidate and Mississippi doesn't deserve him, but I will be elated if somehow he just squeaks by in a wave.

Why not?

I'm being a bit hyperbolic with my phrasing. It's the same way Alabama doesn't deserve Doug Jones -- bottom-rung states in most quality-of-life metrics that are openly hostile to any candidate that attempts to improve things for the state, and they tend to lean on racial/partisan polarization to their own detriment.

[Brittain33]

As if no one could have predicted this, the 538 GCB average is virtually what it was in 2018.

2018 final avg: D+8.7
2020 avg right now: D+8.6

That's so funny given how a modest gap has persisted for some weeks between the two.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Cawthorn channels  P O P U L I S M:https://twitter.com/CawthornforNC/status/1321966127887601669

The ad closes with this finishing touch:

"My name is Madison Cawthorn. I'm not a socialist. I'm not a simp...I am your weapon  "

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1321844536054849536

[Young Conservative]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1321844536054849536

NM is trending right. it has a sizable, generational hispanic pop (as opposed to recent immigrants) and a large working class pop. Furthermore, it lacks a major, major city. Its only "large" city is pretty medium sized with lots of exurbia.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Polls also showed Pearce competitive in his race against Lujan-Grisham and at the end he lost by 15 points. Democrats are routinely underestimated in New Mexico, like in most other states with big Hispanic populations.  

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1321844536054849536

NM is trending right. it has a sizable, generational hispanic pop (as opposed to recent immigrants) and a large working class pop. Furthermore, it lacks a major, major city. Its only "large" city is pretty medium sized with lots of exurbia.

New Mexico is at 83% of its 2016 turnout and turnout is still D+15.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1322906526655328257?s=19

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1322906526655328257?s=19

Ugh I’d rather have the generic ballot and Presidential ballot flipped.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1322906526655328257?s=19

The generic Congressional ballot might not be too helpful if the house Dems from the district polls are doing well

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323110499995820034