2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Pericles]

A Biden landslide will mean a down ballot landslide for Democrats. I find it hard to believe the polls are actually tightening, especially right now. Biden has been leading by double digits for over a month now.

That raises another good point about the differences between 2016 and 2020. Hillary's big leads were much more short-lived.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1283542608812273664?s=20

[libertpaulian]

IN-05...Victoria Spartz's numbers are in.

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1283589941398667264

She's burning through her money while Hale is sitting on wads of cash.  I never thought I'd see the day where this district has this sort of situation.

[wbrocks67]

A Biden landslide will mean a down ballot landslide for Democrats. I find it hard to believe the polls are actually tightening, especially right now. Biden has been leading by double digits for over a month now.

Not to mention, the GCB ballot question has been steady for over a YEAR now

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-56e2-d535-ab7f-76ebc7780000
PA-01
Public Opinion Strategies/Fitzpatrick internal
July 11-14
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Fitzpatrick 53%
Finello 39%

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-56e2-d535-ab7f-76ebc7780000
PA-01
Public Opinion Strategies/Fitzpatrick internal
July 11-14
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Fitzpatrick 53%
Finello 39%

Yeah, and Will Hurd was ahead by 15 in his district.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-56e2-d535-ab7f-76ebc7780000
PA-01
Public Opinion Strategies/Fitzpatrick internal
July 11-14
400 likely voters
MoE: 4.9%

Fitzpatrick 53%
Finello 39%

Yeah, and Will Hurd was ahead by 15 in his district.

I’m still pissed about that one. That polling miss was completely unacceptable, and it was very easy to see that no Republican would win the district by that much ever based on the fundamentals of the seat. I don’t even think Abbott and Cornyn pulled it off in 2014.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1283590499786526720

Dunno if it's actually true, but just lol. How you guys manage to get along with parties so goddamn stupid is beyond me.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1283590499786526720

Dunno if it's actually true, but just lol. How you guys manage to get along with parties so goddamn stupid is beyond me.

It’s real. Nancy Pelosi should just get all the liberal black women in the House from safe seats to go on Fox News every night and just start trolling and get the Fox hosts amped. Their challengers would raise so much money from the racist viewers in lost cause seats lol

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This doesn’t sound like a tightening house race, especially if Dan Crenshaw is a target now.

https://twitter.com/emrwilkins/status/1283752054671003648?s=21

[wbrocks67]

This doesn’t sound like a tightening house race, especially if Dan Crenshaw is a target now.

https://twitter.com/emrwilkins/status/1283752054671003648?s=21

Yeah... that Fitz +14 poll is sure looking way off

[libertpaulian]

Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1283590499786526720

Dunno if it's actually true, but just lol. How you guys manage to get along with parties so goddamn stupid is beyond me.

It’s real. Nancy Pelosi should just get all the liberal black women in the House from safe seats to go on Fox News every night and just start trolling and get the Fox hosts amped. Their challengers would raise so much money from the racist viewers in lost cause seats lol

Omar did this too but now it's also costing Democrats a few million on a primary battle.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!

Troy Balderson is a total power bottom daddy so you are correct.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1283590499786526720

Dunno if it's actually true, but just lol. How you guys manage to get along with parties so goddamn stupid is beyond me.

It’s real. Nancy Pelosi should just get all the liberal black women in the House from safe seats to go on Fox News every night and just start trolling and get the Fox hosts amped. Their challengers would raise so much money from the racist viewers in lost cause seats lol

Omar did this too but now it's also costing Democrats a few million on a primary battle.

Why would this cost Democrats anything?

[Pollster]

NM-02
Tarrance Group/Herrell internal
July 9-10
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Herrell 46%
Torres-Small 46%

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NM-02-0720-polling-memo.pdf

Funnily enough, this is the exact same spread my firm found in this district on the exact same field dates... in 2018.

I love all of your insights. Do you have any insights into what you're seeing right now for 2020 generally?

Thank you. One of the more surprising things I’ve been seeing is (with a few exceptions) the rapidly decreasing disparity between public and internal polls. I’m not sure if this has to do with public pollsters overcorrecting from 2016 or American political partisanship making accurate polling easier for everyone.

Interesting. So for example, we've seen a ton of house internals over the last few weeks - and what you're seeing is that these internals are lining up with what you're seeing as well? Like they don't seem as "skewed" to the person running them as they have in the past?

Well, internals publicized by campaigns/interest groups often show informed ballot tests (ballot tests post-messaging, post-bios). That shouldn't be seen as a generalization, though, as many publicized internals do show genuine snapshot-in-time ballot tests.

I meant more that public pollsters (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, news outlets, PPP and Cygnal when they release polls not for clients) are starting more and more to line up with internal numbers we've been seeing at the state and occasionally district level.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!

Troy Balderson is a total power bottom daddy so you are correct.

He is a total chad who could bench press a whole mountain, don't even bother trying to go after him Democrats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!

Troy Balderson is a total power bottom daddy so you are correct.

He is a total chad who could bench press a whole mountain, don't even both trying to go after him Democrats.

Yeah, he is a total raw piece of meat

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!

And TX-02 but not TX-10. I unironically hope they're doing it because of bad takes regarding Siegel being an unelectable progressive as opposed to even worse takes about Michael McCaul's #candidatequality being that much stronger than Dan Crenshaw's.

[OneJ]

It should be noted that the Red to Blue program's candidate list is overwhelmingly made up of women. Out of the thirty candidates, only four of them are men.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It should be noted that the Red to Blue program's candidate list is overwhelmingly made up of women. Out of the thirty candidates, only four of them are men.

Women are the nominees in most of the competitive offensive seats like PA-01, GA-07, TX-23, TX-24, TX-21, NY-24, NE-02, MO-02, IN-05, CA-25, MT-AL, and IL-13, so it makes sense.

[politicallefty]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1283997484264587276

Interesting.

[wesmoorenerd]

Wait...they're targeting OH-10 but not OH-12?!

And TX-02 but not TX-10. I unironically hope they're doing it because of bad takes regarding Siegel being an unelectable progressive as opposed to even worse takes about Michael McCaul's #candidatequality being that much stronger than Dan Crenshaw's.

All six of the candidates they added were women, and they didn't add Hattersley or Hoadley either. I imagine it was a show of diversity, which is a bit strange when you consider the list was already overwhelmingly women but whatever.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

UT-04 partisan poll

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/7/16/21327383/ben-mcadams-financial-disclosure-burgess-owens-4th-district-race

Moore Information/Republican Congressional Leadership Fund
July 8-11, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 5%

Burgess Owens, R 43%
Ben McAdams, D 34%
John Molnar, L 5%
Jonia Broderick, UUP <0.5%
Don’t know 15%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MN-05 D primary partisan poll

https://05702341-a922-4d99-9222-04dcd23c85ce.filesusr.com/ugd/5a3786_7580786c09e547dba019a9412f14c937.pdf

Change Research/Ilhan Omar internal
July 7-9, 2020
509 likely primary voters
MoE: 4.3%

Omar 63%
Melton-Meaux 29%
“Other candidates’ support in the single digits”
Undecided 2%