2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[wbrocks67]

NM-02
Tarrance Group/Herrell internal
July 9-10
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Herrell 46%
Torres-Small 46%

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NM-02-0720-polling-memo.pdf

Funnily enough, this is the exact same spread my firm found in this district on the exact same field dates... in 2018.

I love all of your insights. Do you have any insights into what you're seeing right now for 2020 generally?

[VAR]

MT-AL
Civiqs/Daily Kos
July 11-13
873 RV
MoE: 4.2%

Rosendale 49%
Williams 47%
Unsure 3%
Someone else 2%

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_MT_banner_book_2020_07_ba6t8k.pdf

[Pollster]

NM-02
Tarrance Group/Herrell internal
July 9-10
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Herrell 46%
Torres-Small 46%

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NM-02-0720-polling-memo.pdf

Funnily enough, this is the exact same spread my firm found in this district on the exact same field dates... in 2018.

I love all of your insights. Do you have any insights into what you're seeing right now for 2020 generally?

Thank you. One of the more surprising things I’ve been seeing is (with a few exceptions) the rapidly decreasing disparity between public and internal polls. I’m not sure if this has to do with public pollsters overcorrecting from 2016 or American political partisanship making accurate polling easier for everyone.

[wbrocks67]

NM-02
Tarrance Group/Herrell internal
July 9-10
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Herrell 46%
Torres-Small 46%

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NM-02-0720-polling-memo.pdf

Funnily enough, this is the exact same spread my firm found in this district on the exact same field dates... in 2018.

I love all of your insights. Do you have any insights into what you're seeing right now for 2020 generally?

Thank you. One of the more surprising things I’ve been seeing is (with a few exceptions) the rapidly decreasing disparity between public and internal polls. I’m not sure if this has to do with public pollsters overcorrecting from 2016 or American political partisanship making accurate polling easier for everyone.

Interesting. So for example, we've seen a ton of house internals over the last few weeks - and what you're seeing is that these internals are lining up with what you're seeing as well? Like they don't seem as "skewed" to the person running them as they have in the past?

[Gass3268]

Yikes for Ernst!

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1283192391361597442?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yikes for Ernst!

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1283192391361597442?s=20

Diminishing returns from fundraising $ in a small state like IA, especially when it comes to advertising. Ernst could do a bit better but Greenfield has maxed out on the easiest gains from fundraising and will now probably be spending a lot on campaign infrastructure (which has a smaller ROI). This problem is even more apparent in Maine where Collins' $3m is enough and Gideon's $9m isn't going to be much more effective.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684

Lean D

[Gass3268]

Yikes for Ernst!

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1283192391361597442?s=20

Diminishing returns from fundraising $ in a small state like IA, especially when it comes to advertising. Ernst could do a bit better but Greenfield has maxed out on the easiest gains from fundraising and will now probably be spending a lot on campaign infrastructure (which has a smaller ROI). This problem is even more apparent in Maine where Collins' $3m is enough and Gideon's $9m isn't going to be much more effective.

You can start moving money into other efforts like GOTV.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684?s=21

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684

Lean D

This district is probably the easiest House pickup for Democrats after TX-23 and GA-07.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684

Lean D

This district is probably the easiest House pickup for Democrats after TX-23 and GA-07.

The two North Carolina districts are definitely the easiest.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684

Lean D

This district is probably the easiest House pickup for Democrats after TX-23 and GA-07.

The two North Carolina districts are definitely the easiest.

I don't really count those since they're not exactly the same districts as they were previously and are pretty much gimmes due to the circumstances of their creation (drawn explicitly to be Dem districts). Considering districts that were not changed through redistricting, I would say TX-23, GA-07, TX-24, and CA-25 are the easiest in roughly that order.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/averyjaffe/status/1283245149053767684

Lean D

This district is probably the easiest House pickup for Democrats after TX-23 and GA-07.

I'm torn between this one and TX-22. It was basically the same dynamic but with switched parties - Dem nominee clinched it in the first round, and two Republicans had to fight in a messy runoff. But on the other hand, Beto won TX-24 and Cruz narrowly carried TX-22.

[wbrocks67]

Yikes for Ernst!

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1283192391361597442?s=20

Diminishing returns from fundraising $ in a small state like IA, especially when it comes to advertising. Ernst could do a bit better but Greenfield has maxed out on the easiest gains from fundraising and will now probably be spending a lot on campaign infrastructure (which has a smaller ROI). This problem is even more apparent in Maine where Collins' $3m is enough and Gideon's $9m isn't going to be much more effective.

You can start moving money into other efforts like GOTV.

Right? It's odd to see people bend themselves into pretzels to try and say how having $2M, $6M more etc on hand is somehow "not much better" than having less? I'd much rather be Greenfield or Gideon in these scenarios. Also shows enthusiasm gaps for people like Ernst and Collins.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yikes for Ernst!

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1283192391361597442?s=20

Diminishing returns from fundraising $ in a small state like IA, especially when it comes to advertising. Ernst could do a bit better but Greenfield has maxed out on the easiest gains from fundraising and will now probably be spending a lot on campaign infrastructure (which has a smaller ROI). This problem is even more apparent in Maine where Collins' $3m is enough and Gideon's $9m isn't going to be much more effective.

You can start moving money into other efforts like GOTV.

Right? It's odd to see people bend themselves into pretzels to try and say how having $2M, $6M more etc on hand is somehow "not much better" than having less? I'd much rather be Greenfield or Gideon in these scenarios. Also shows enthusiasm gaps for people like Ernst and Collins.

It's better, but not by as much as having $1m more than an opponent with, say, $500k. If fundraising was everything, Bloomberg would have won; if enthusiasm gaps were as consistently powerful as has often been suggested here, Sanders would be the nominee (and that's not considering that much of Maine's "enthusiasm gap" is inflated by out-of-state, anti-Collins fundraising).

[VAR]

CO-03: Boebert raised $19k in Q2.
KS-02: Watkins raised $124k in Q2.

[wbrocks67]

Yikes for Ernst!

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1283192391361597442?s=20

Diminishing returns from fundraising $ in a small state like IA, especially when it comes to advertising. Ernst could do a bit better but Greenfield has maxed out on the easiest gains from fundraising and will now probably be spending a lot on campaign infrastructure (which has a smaller ROI). This problem is even more apparent in Maine where Collins' $3m is enough and Gideon's $9m isn't going to be much more effective.

You can start moving money into other efforts like GOTV.

Right? It's odd to see people bend themselves into pretzels to try and say how having $2M, $6M more etc on hand is somehow "not much better" than having less? I'd much rather be Greenfield or Gideon in these scenarios. Also shows enthusiasm gaps for people like Ernst and Collins.

It's better, but not by as much as having $1m more than an opponent with, say, $500k. If fundraising was everything, Bloomberg would have won; if enthusiasm gaps were as consistently powerful as has often been suggested here, Sanders would be the nominee (and that's not considering that much of Maine's "enthusiasm gap" is inflated by out-of-state, anti-Collins fundraising).

Not really an apples to apples comparison. The fundraising we're seeing for Senate candidates in 2020 seems closely comparable to the fundraising that house democrats saw in 2018, which was foreshadowing of the blue wave in November 2018

[wbrocks67]

CO-03: Boebert raised $19k in Q2.
KS-02: Watkins raised $124k in Q2.

Yikes, CO-03 is def tossup. And with Watkins troubles, KS-02 should be too.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Yikes for Ernst!

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1283192391361597442?s=20

Diminishing returns from fundraising $ in a small state like IA, especially when it comes to advertising. Ernst could do a bit better but Greenfield has maxed out on the easiest gains from fundraising and will now probably be spending a lot on campaign infrastructure (which has a smaller ROI). This problem is even more apparent in Maine where Collins' $3m is enough and Gideon's $9m isn't going to be much more effective.

You can start moving money into other efforts like GOTV.

Right? It's odd to see people bend themselves into pretzels to try and say how having $2M, $6M more etc on hand is somehow "not much better" than having less? I'd much rather be Greenfield or Gideon in these scenarios. Also shows enthusiasm gaps for people like Ernst and Collins.

It's better, but not by as much as having $1m more than an opponent with, say, $500k. If fundraising was everything, Bloomberg would have won; if enthusiasm gaps were as consistently powerful as has often been suggested here, Sanders would be the nominee (and that's not considering that much of Maine's "enthusiasm gap" is inflated by out-of-state, anti-Collins fundraising).

Not really an apples to apples comparison. The fundraising we're seeing for Senate candidates in 2020 seems closely comparable to the fundraising that house democrats saw in 2018, which was foreshadowing of the blue wave in November 2018

It's certainly correlated with success in General Elections at the national level, but how much local variance in over/underperformance was fundraising itself responsible for?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm not sure how legitimate this is as I can't find it anywhere else, but I'm putting it here for posterity's sake. If it *is* legitimate, it's probably a leak from an internal for which topline numbers haven't been released:

https://twitter.com/Rebecca_M_Dean/status/1282785312213786625

[Gracile]

IA-03: Cindy Axne raised $836K in Q2, has $3.1M COH-

https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1283411361389830146

[VAR]

NBC News/Wall Street Journal
July 9-12
900 RV
MoE: 3.3%

Democratic 47%
Republican 43%
Undecided 10%

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6989473/200356-NBCWSJ-July-Poll-7-15-2020-Release.pdf

Last poll: D +11

[LimoLiberal]

NBC News/Wall Street Journal
July 9-12
900 RV
MoE: 3.3%

Democratic 47%
Republican 43%
Undecided 10%

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6989473/200356-NBCWSJ-July-Poll-7-15-2020-Release.pdf

Last poll: D +11

This and the Monmouth PA poll showing a similar divergence are something to keep an eye on.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A Biden landslide will mean a down ballot landslide for Democrats. I find it hard to believe the polls are actually tightening, especially right now. Biden has been leading by double digits for over a month now.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Really curious how the undecideds look.


Also very similar numbers to NBC/WSJ's poll around this time in 2018.


July 15-18, 2018
900 RV
MoE: 3.3%

Democrats: 49%
Republicans: 43%
Undecided: 8%

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/18570NBCWSJJulyPoll7-22-18Release.pdf

Their poll prior to that one had it D+10