2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 165764 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1100 on: July 09, 2020, 01:59:37 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 09, 2020, 01:50:42 PM
Crystal Ball downgrades GA-SEN (Perdue/Ossoff) from Likely R to Lean R as part of an in-depth look at the state (co-authored by Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman): http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/.

Thoughts on that, GM? (As a Georgia resident)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1101 on: July 09, 2020, 03:12:38 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on July 09, 2020, 01:59:37 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 09, 2020, 01:50:42 PM
Crystal Ball downgrades GA-SEN (Perdue/Ossoff) from Likely R to Lean R as part of an in-depth look at the state (co-authored by Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman): http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/.

Thoughts on that, GM? (As a Georgia resident)

Lean R seems right to me.  Ossoff is definitely making a race out of it, but I think Perdue still has a small lead.  Also, Ossoff probably needs to win outright on Nov. 3 (and there are a few minor candidates running) since Perdue would likely have a bigger edge in a runoff.  We may well have both Georgia seats in the Jan. 5 runoff, since the special election is almost certain to need one.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1102 on: July 09, 2020, 03:26:04 PM »


Lean D
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1103 on: July 09, 2020, 04:02:17 PM »
THIS!
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Gracile
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« Reply #1104 on: July 09, 2020, 04:04:39 PM »
TX-22: Sri Preston Kulkarni raised $950K in Q2, has $1.1M COH-

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/09/#tx-22-dem-nominee-sri-preston-kulkarni-raises-950k
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1105 on: July 09, 2020, 04:57:33 PM »
So at this point, is another D wave as likely as the Rs winning the House?
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Gracile
gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1106 on: July 09, 2020, 05:10:07 PM »
Quote from: Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More on July 09, 2020, 04:57:33 PM
So at this point, is another D wave as likely as the Rs winning the House?

I'd say we're at the point where Democrats are more likely to net gain seats than Republicans. Republicans winning the House was already a steep climb months ago (now it's pretty much impossible).
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1107 on: July 09, 2020, 05:24:25 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 09, 2020, 03:12:38 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on July 09, 2020, 01:59:37 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 09, 2020, 01:50:42 PM
Crystal Ball downgrades GA-SEN (Perdue/Ossoff) from Likely R to Lean R as part of an in-depth look at the state (co-authored by Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman): http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/.

Thoughts on that, GM? (As a Georgia resident)

Lean R seems right to me.  Ossoff is definitely making a race out of it, but I think Perdue still has a small lead.  Also, Ossoff probably needs to win outright on Nov. 3 (and there are a few minor candidates running) since Perdue would likely have a bigger edge in a runoff.  We may well have both Georgia seats in the Jan. 5 runoff, since the special election is almost certain to need one.


So basically, a typical Georgia race
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #1108 on: July 09, 2020, 05:38:28 PM »
When are we gonna get a KS R primary poll and MA Senate poll?  They keep polling AZ, NC, GA
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1109 on: July 10, 2020, 10:35:14 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 11:21:49 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

The BOLD PAC is an arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus which endorsed Candace Valenzuela before the first round of the primary.

Edit: here's a full release by DFP, thanks to Politico: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-367b-d042-a37b-7e7b91e80000

Including leaners:

Valenzuela 52%
Olson 37%
Undecided ~11%
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lfromnj
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« Reply #1110 on: July 10, 2020, 11:40:32 AM »
Theres literally no reason for a progressive or moderate Democrats to back Kim Olson after she gifted the NRCC that ad about burning everything down.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1111 on: July 10, 2020, 12:57:35 PM »
Hahahahaha!!!!
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1112 on: July 10, 2020, 02:07:32 PM »
Inside Elections has 8 Senate ratings changes, all downgrades for Republicans. I think some of these are quite noteworthy because I've also thought they're the most small-c conservative of the Big 3 ratings analysts.



Also, this:
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OneJ
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« Reply #1113 on: July 11, 2020, 12:14:45 PM »
Just checked the RCP average for the Generic Ballot and it has D+11 although they still have an old WSJ poll (late May/early June).
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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1114 on: July 13, 2020, 06:39:06 AM »
NE-02

GQR/Eastman internal
June 30-July 5
502 LV
MoE: 4.4%

Eastman 50%
Bacon 49%
Undecided 1%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1115 on: July 13, 2020, 07:40:04 AM »
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_CD13REP_July9_R41H9.pdf

FL-13 Republican primary
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
July 9, 2020
558 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%

Amanda Makki 28.7%
Georga Buck 20.8%
Anna Paulina Luna 12.9%
Sheila Griffin 3.7%
Paula Newby 1.5%
Unsure 32.5%

https://www.wjhl.com/news/your-local-election-hq/harshbarger-tops-field-in-gop-congressional-primary-poll/

TN-01 Republican primary
Spry Strategies/WJHL 11
June 21-24, 2020
800 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Diana Harshbarger 22.4%
Rusty Crowe 14%
Timothy Hill 11.3%
Steve Darden 6.1%
David Hawk 6.1%
Josh Gapp 5.9%
John Clark 5%
Jay Adkins 2.8%
Nichole Williams 2%
Another candidate 3.4%
Unsure 21.4%
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1116 on: July 13, 2020, 09:08:31 AM »
MT-AL PPP Poll:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MontanaPoll071220.pdf

Matt Rosendale (R) 44%
Kathleen Williams (D) 44%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1117 on: July 13, 2020, 09:12:39 AM »

Not sure 13%

1224 voters
July 9-10, 2020
MoE: 2.8%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1118 on: July 13, 2020, 09:18:22 AM »

Wow, a really good result for Williams. I think she has a good shot this year.
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Landslide Lyndon
px75
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« Reply #1119 on: July 13, 2020, 11:34:08 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on July 13, 2020, 06:39:06 AM
NE-02

GQR/Eastman internal
June 30-July 5
502 LV
MoE: 4.4%

Eastman 50%
Bacon 49%
Undecided 1%

Eastman raised 715k. This time money won't be a problem.
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Gracile
gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1120 on: July 13, 2020, 01:22:10 PM »
Here's a slew of House fundraising numbers:
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1121 on: July 13, 2020, 03:23:09 PM »
WI-01
1007 voters
PPP/Polack internal
July 9-10, 2020
MoE: 3.2%

Steil (R) 49%
Polack (D) 39%
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1122 on: July 13, 2020, 06:03:19 PM »
NM-02
Tarrance Group/Herrell internal
July 9-10
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Herrell 46%
Torres-Small 46%

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NM-02-0720-polling-memo.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1123 on: July 13, 2020, 06:03:45 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on July 13, 2020, 06:03:19 PM
NM-02
Tarrance Group/Herrell internal
July 9-10
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Herrell 46%
Torres-Small 46%

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NM-02-0720-polling-memo.pdf

If that's the best Rs can do.... (and not releasing any topline prez #s either)
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Pollster
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« Reply #1124 on: July 13, 2020, 10:12:12 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on July 13, 2020, 06:03:19 PM
NM-02
Tarrance Group/Herrell internal
July 9-10
400 LV
MoE: 4.9%

Herrell 46%
Torres-Small 46%

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/NM-02-0720-polling-memo.pdf

Funnily enough, this is the exact same spread my firm found in this district on the exact same field dates... in 2018.
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