2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 165229 times)
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1075 on: July 06, 2020, 06:36:18 PM »
Ashley Hinson outraised Abby Finkenauer in IA-01 in Q2 2020, $1M to $875K. I believe Finkenauer will lose.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1076 on: July 07, 2020, 10:13:32 AM »
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Lisa's voting Biden
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« Reply #1077 on: July 07, 2020, 02:44:33 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 07, 2020, 10:13:32 AM

Lean D
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1078 on: July 07, 2020, 02:53:44 PM »
Tossup
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1079 on: July 07, 2020, 03:21:46 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2020, 04:31:18 PM by MT Treasurer »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 02, 2020, 09:36:03 AM
It'll be +20% when the October surprise that Cooney was actually born in New Hampshire is revealed.

Trust me, if Cooney had been born in NH, 95% of my posts on this forum would have been deleted by now and I’d be busy doing other things at this very moment. Wink

Fun fact: Cooney was actually delivered in D.C. and only arrived in Montana a few days later. #CarpetbaggingCooney will be DOA the minute someone adds his birthplace to his Wikipedia entry because Montana's nativist streak™ is just that strong (or so I’ve been told).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1080 on: July 07, 2020, 03:25:15 PM »
There is another poll out showing Biden plus 11, its pretty much all she wrote in July of an election year and there is not any vaccine.

Pence said that Covid 19 would be over by Memorial day

But not only that, public transportation is being affected, you cant even get on a city bus without constant delays
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1081 on: July 07, 2020, 06:29:52 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on July 07, 2020, 03:21:46 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 02, 2020, 09:36:03 AM
It'll be +20% when the October surprise that Cooney was actually born in New Hampshire is revealed.

Trust me, if Cooney had been born in NH, 95% of my posts on this forum would have been deleted by now and I’d be busy doing other things at this very moment. Wink

Fun fact: Cooney was actually delivered in D.C. and only arrived in Montana a few days later. #CarpetbaggingCooney will be DOA the minute someone adds his birthplace to his Wikipedia entry because Montana's nativist streak™ is just that strong (or so I’ve been told).

District of Cooney, not good!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1082 on: July 07, 2020, 06:41:23 PM »

Career Cooney: D.C. Deception in Diapers
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1083 on: July 07, 2020, 08:43:16 PM »
DCCC poll in NJ-02

Jeff Van Drew (R-inc) - 47
Amy Kennedy (D) - 44
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1084 on: July 07, 2020, 09:02:22 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 07, 2020, 08:43:16 PM
DCCC poll in NJ-02

Jeff Van Drew (R-inc) - 47
Amy Kennedy (D) - 44



All things considered, this isn't a bad poll for the GOP.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1085 on: July 08, 2020, 09:53:50 AM »
ME-02 R Primary poll:

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/07/08/politics/poll-gives-dale-crafts-edge-in-gop-primary-in-maines-2nd-district/

June 30-July 6, 2020
604 likely Republican voters
MoE: 4.1%

Crafts 37%
Bennett 25%
Brakey 19%
Undecided 19%

Something to watch w.r.t. Republicans coming home to Collins by November:

Trump favourability: 82%-11%
Collins favourability: 65%-14%
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1086 on: July 08, 2020, 09:55:22 AM »
PA-01:
Fitzpatrick (R) raised $455K in Q2, while Finello (D) raised $310K.

Pretty good total for Finello, considering she didn't win the primary until June 2, with less than a month left in the quarter. Fitzpatrick obviously still has a ton COH ($1.8mil) - so Finello will really have to catch up Q3. Good start though.

https://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-fitzpatrick-leads-q2-haul/95015/
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1087 on: July 08, 2020, 10:21:04 AM »
The GCB clocks in at D+11 (51% D/40% R) in the new YouGov poll.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lraqqdhd7j/econTabReport.pdf
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1088 on: July 08, 2020, 10:24:21 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2020, 10:29:32 AM by LimoLiberal »
The Green Wave continues



I also saw that Elaine Luria (VA-02) raised $800,000ish but I can't find the tweet.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1089 on: July 08, 2020, 06:07:11 PM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506468-internal-poll-shows-tight-battle-in-montana-house-race

Global Strategy Group/Williams internal
June 24-28, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Matt Rosendale 47%
Kathleen Williams 47%
Undecided 6%
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1090 on: July 08, 2020, 06:13:12 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 08, 2020, 06:07:11 PM
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506468-internal-poll-shows-tight-battle-in-montana-house-race

Global Strategy Group/Williams internal
June 24-28, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Matt Rosendale 47%
Kathleen Williams 47%
Undecided 6%

I know Montana loves to ticket-split, but that's really good news for Biden
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1091 on: July 08, 2020, 06:33:43 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 08, 2020, 06:07:11 PM
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506468-internal-poll-shows-tight-battle-in-montana-house-race

Global Strategy Group/Williams internal
June 24-28, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Matt Rosendale 47%
Kathleen Williams 47%
Undecided 6%


booooooo, did this @sshole not poll the sen race?!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1092 on: July 08, 2020, 06:34:40 PM »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 08, 2020, 06:33:43 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 08, 2020, 06:07:11 PM
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506468-internal-poll-shows-tight-battle-in-montana-house-race

Global Strategy Group/Williams internal
June 24-28, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Matt Rosendale 47%
Kathleen Williams 47%
Undecided 6%

booooooo, did this @sshole not poll the sen race?!

That wasn't very populist of her. Safe Montanan -> Tilt Maryland Matt?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1093 on: July 09, 2020, 05:35:10 AM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 08, 2020, 10:24:21 AM
The Green Wave continues



I also saw that Elaine Luria (VA-02) raised $800,000ish but I can't find the tweet.

In comparison to everyone else, Fitzpatrick's haul looks pretty sh*tty.
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Pollster
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« Reply #1094 on: July 09, 2020, 08:41:53 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 08, 2020, 06:34:40 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on July 08, 2020, 06:33:43 PM
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 08, 2020, 06:07:11 PM
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506468-internal-poll-shows-tight-battle-in-montana-house-race

Global Strategy Group/Williams internal
June 24-28, 2020
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Matt Rosendale 47%
Kathleen Williams 47%
Undecided 6%

booooooo, did this @sshole not poll the sen race?!

That wasn't very populist of her. Safe Montanan -> Tilt Maryland Matt?

They probably have Senate numbers but didn't want to show her underperforming Bullock.
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Pollster
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« Reply #1095 on: July 09, 2020, 09:11:40 AM »
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Gracile
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« Reply #1096 on: July 09, 2020, 10:59:25 AM »
Quote from: Pollster on July 09, 2020, 09:11:40 AM


I find it interesting that Young is performing worst of all the Republicans in this poll (comparing horse race numbers). One might expect him to be performing much better given his status as a long-serving House member for decades, and the fact that he beat this same opponent by a non-insignificant margin of nearly 7% two years ago.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1097 on: July 09, 2020, 11:24:12 AM »
The undecideds in AK-AL are apparently very Republican-leaning, so he might not underperform Sullivan/Trump that much. But yeah, I think this is a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats than MT-AL (don’t buy that the Williams internal poll accurately reflects the current state of the race — it’s somewhat close but more like Rosendale +4-5). Very telling that Williams' internal didn’t release the Senate numbers.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1098 on: July 09, 2020, 11:32:48 AM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 08, 2020, 06:34:40 PM
That wasn't very populist of her. Safe Montanan -> Tilt Maryland Matt?

Kathleen Williams isn’t a true Montanan, she was born in CA (as were Gianforte and Daines). Cooney was born in D.C. and Rosendale in MD.

Bullock is the only true Montanan of the six.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1099 on: July 09, 2020, 01:50:42 PM »
Crystal Ball downgrades GA-SEN (Perdue/Ossoff) from Likely R to Lean R as part of an in-depth look at the state (co-authored by Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman): http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-georgia/.
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