2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 164036 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #1050 on: June 30, 2020, 09:21:21 AM »

These internals are just brutal for Republicans up and down the ballot.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1051 on: June 30, 2020, 09:25:58 AM »

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/bc453ab900a62c2a5139a494a15c0cfa/TX-06%20DCCC%20Analytics%20-%20Toplines%20-%202020.06.24.pdf

DCCC poll for TX-06
June 24-28, 2020
376 likely voters

D 46%
R 45%
Blank ballot/refused 9%

Candidates named:

Ron Wright (R) 45%
Stephen Daniel (D) 41%
Undecided 15%

Cook has this as a Safe R seat.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1052 on: June 30, 2020, 09:29:19 AM »

There is no way to look at the quantity of these Dem internals showing Trump underperforming massively and the lack of ANY GOP response and conclude anything other than that Trump is in a terrible, awful position.
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Gracile
gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1053 on: June 30, 2020, 10:36:34 AM »

Kendra Horn is making an ad buy in OK-05, starting tomorrow (after the primary):

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1054 on: June 30, 2020, 01:58:30 PM »

Suffolk has the GCB at D +14 (51%/37%)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/06/30/poll-biden-widens-lead-but-trump-has-enthusiasm-edge/3234610001/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1055 on: June 30, 2020, 02:24:17 PM »


Which makes all of these internals look all the more realistic...
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1056 on: June 30, 2020, 02:25:47 PM »

Kendra Horn is making an ad buy in OK-05, starting tomorrow (after the primary):



I'd bet good money that Biden carries Horn's district and at the end she wins by 3-4%.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1057 on: June 30, 2020, 03:48:57 PM »

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/bc453ab900a62c2a5139a494a15c0cfa/TX-06%20DCCC%20Analytics%20-%20Toplines%20-%202020.06.24.pdf

DCCC poll for TX-06
June 24-28, 2020
376 likely voters

D 46%
R 45%
Blank ballot/refused 9%

Candidates named:

Ron Wright (R) 45%
Stephen Daniel (D) 41%
Undecided 15%

Hopefully this means Crenshaw is also in trouble.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1058 on: June 30, 2020, 03:57:29 PM »

The MoE for that TX-06 poll is 4.8%
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1059 on: June 30, 2020, 04:09:41 PM »


If that happened, Democrats would gain another 40 seats.
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1060 on: July 01, 2020, 11:57:19 AM »

Some early Q2 fundraising numbers:

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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #1061 on: July 01, 2020, 12:16:30 PM »



I’m not sure how much Dems want to invest in this race if Republicans are just gonna cut this district up in two years (much like OK-05 and GA-07).
Why are we throwing the towel in on redistricting? This is about the Integrity of our elections. We need to put the pressure on states to adopt these commissions. If Mike Madigan has to threaten to draw an 18-0 map to scare GOP in GA, FL, so be it!
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Pollster
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« Reply #1062 on: July 01, 2020, 07:42:01 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2020, 09:28:33 PM by Pollster »

Univeristy of Montana poll has Matt Rosendale leading Kathleen Williams by 8 points, 45/37.

Same poll has Trump +14 and Bullock +4.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1063 on: July 01, 2020, 11:48:34 PM »

New Crystal Ball Ratings:

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1064 on: July 02, 2020, 05:14:43 AM »

PA-01 should be a tossup.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1065 on: July 02, 2020, 07:34:37 AM »


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ajc0918
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« Reply #1066 on: July 02, 2020, 07:36:19 AM »

CA-25: Katie Porter raised $2.5M in Q2 and ended June with $6.6M in the bank. This is her fifth quarter raising over $1M.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1067 on: July 02, 2020, 09:34:19 AM »


Also has Gianforte leading by 10.

I honestly don’t think they could have released a more #populist Purple heart poll.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1068 on: July 02, 2020, 09:36:03 AM »


It'll be +20% when the October surprise that Cooney was actually born in New Hampshire is revealed.
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Pollster
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« Reply #1069 on: July 02, 2020, 09:40:19 AM »

CA-25: Katie Porter raised $2.5M in Q2 and ended June with $6.6M in the bank. This is her fifth quarter raising over $1M.

If Porter continues at this rate without having to spend large amounts of it, she could begin with a massive head start in 2024 if Feinstein retires.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #1070 on: July 02, 2020, 08:36:38 PM »

New Crystal Ball Ratings:


LOl Texas! Talk about a dummymander man!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1071 on: July 02, 2020, 09:13:44 PM »

New Crystal Ball Ratings:


LOl Texas! Talk about a dummymander man!

A gerrymander that lasts for 8 years out of 10 is not usually a dummymander.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1072 on: July 02, 2020, 09:21:00 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2020, 12:59:35 AM by Monstro »

Imagine telling a Texas Republican during the 2014 Midterms that there's a non-zero chance of the following scenarios happening during the 2020 elections

- Texas becomes a tossup state under President Donald Trump
- Democrats flip the State House
- Democrats control a majority of the states US House delegation
- Wendy Davis wins Lamar Smith's seat
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1073 on: July 03, 2020, 06:54:58 PM »

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1074 on: July 06, 2020, 09:51:48 AM »

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/senate/
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/race-forecasts-and-predictions/house/

Politico updated their Senate and House ratings.
Senate ratings are all in favor of Democrats. Arizona moves from Tossup to Lean D, Iowa and Montana from Lean R to Tossup, and Oregon from Likely D to Solid (let's be honest, that seat was Safe D even before the QAnon truther got nominated).

House:
Mostly boosting Democrats.
AZ-09 (Stanton) from Likely to Solid.
AZ-02 (Kirkpatrick), CA-10 (Harder), CA-45 (Porter) and NH-02 (Kuster) go from Lean D to Likely.
NV-03 (Lee) from Tossup to Lean D.
VA-05 from Likely to Lean R in the wake of Riggleman's defeat at the convention.

But they changed three ratings in favor of Republicans.
IA-04, with Steve King's primary loss, goes from Lean R to Safe.
MN-08 (Stauber) moves from Lean R to Likely, and the open NC-11 from Likely to Safe.

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